May 07 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Counter 3.5dev 94.731% 2.734% 97.465% 2.535%
2. chess22k 1.14 2.331% 38.905% 41.236% 18.037% 29.812% 10.622% 0.293%
3. Monolith 2 22.489% 22.489% 49.963% 11.616% 15.932%
4. ChessFighter 3.3 2.694% 25.999% 28.693% 15.881% 44.003% 8.513% 2.451% 0.459%
5. Asymptote 0.8 0.244% 9.868% 10.112% 13.526% 13.332% 38.025% 14.674% 10.331%
6. FabChess 1.14.2 0.030% 10.955% 80.399% 8.616%
7. Combusken 1.1.1 0.005% 0.005% 0.058% 1.207% 15.953% 2.183% 80.594%
8. Tucano 8.07_dev2 100.000%
9. Bagatur 2.1 100.000%
10. Weiss 0.10-dev2 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 38.701%
2. Counter 3.5dev ChessFighter 3.3 23.668%
3. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 22.489%
4. Counter 3.5dev Asymptote 0.8 9.868%
5. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 2.694%
6. chess22k 1.14 ChessFighter 3.3 2.331%
7. Asymptote 0.8 chess22k 1.14 0.204%
8. Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev 0.040%
9. Counter 3.5dev Combusken 1.1.1 0.005%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 38.701%
2. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 26.362%
3. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 22.489%
4. Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev 9.908%
5. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 2.331%
6. Asymptote 0.8 chess22k 1.14 0.204%
7. Combusken 1.1.1 Counter 3.5dev 0.005%

Speculate ChessFighter 3.3 – Tucano 8.07_dev2 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Counter 3.5dev 84.125% 9.397% 93.522% 6.478%
2. ChessFighter 3.3 9.357% 65.723% 75.080% 14.418% 7.179% 3.323%
3. Monolith 2 14.279% 14.279% 52.265% 12.196% 21.260%
4. chess22k 1.14 6.297% 1.872% 8.169% 12.786% 64.822% 13.827% 0.396%
5. Asymptote 0.8 0.221% 8.729% 8.950% 14.053% 14.893% 36.257% 15.199% 10.648%
6. FabChess 1.14.2 9.708% 81.761% 8.531%
7. Combusken 1.1.1 0.910% 15.625% 2.644% 80.821%
8. Tucano 8.07_dev2 100.000%
9. Bagatur 2.1 100.000%
10. Weiss 0.10-dev2 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Counter 3.5dev ChessFighter 3.3 59.426%
2. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 14.279%
3. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 9.357%
4. Counter 3.5dev Asymptote 0.8 8.729%
5. chess22k 1.14 ChessFighter 3.3 6.297%
6. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 1.691%
7. Asymptote 0.8 chess22k 1.14 0.181%
8. Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev 0.040%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 68.783%
2. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 14.279%
3. Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev 8.769%
4. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 6.297%
5. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 1.691%
6. Asymptote 0.8 chess22k 1.14 0.181%

Speculate ChessFighter 3.3 – Tucano 8.07_dev2 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Counter 3.5dev 98.894% 0.039% 98.933% 1.067%
2. chess22k 1.14 0.872% 55.591% 56.463% 17.493% 15.945% 9.836% 0.263%
3. Monolith 2 22.944% 22.944% 50.567% 11.303% 15.186%
4. ChessFighter 3.3 11.396% 11.396% 16.917% 58.288% 10.337% 3.062%
5. Asymptote 0.8 0.234% 10.029% 10.263% 13.938% 13.371% 38.075% 14.357% 9.996%
6. FabChess 1.14.2 11.217% 80.252% 8.531%
7. Combusken 1.1.1 0.001% 0.001% 0.018% 1.093% 15.349% 2.066% 81.473%
8. Tucano 8.07_dev2 100.000%
9. Bagatur 2.1 100.000%
10. Weiss 0.10-dev2 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 55.396%
2. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 22.944%
3. Counter 3.5dev ChessFighter 3.3 10.524%
4. Counter 3.5dev Asymptote 0.8 10.029%
5. chess22k 1.14 ChessFighter 3.3 0.872%
6. Asymptote 0.8 chess22k 1.14 0.195%
7. Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev 0.039%
8. Counter 3.5dev Combusken 1.1.1 0.001%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 55.396%
2. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 22.944%
3. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 10.524%
4. Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev 10.068%
5. ChessFighter 3.3 chess22k 1.14 0.872%
6. Asymptote 0.8 chess22k 1.14 0.195%
7. Combusken 1.1.1 Counter 3.5dev 0.001%

Speculate ChessFighter 3.3 – Tucano 8.07_dev2 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
1. Counter 3.5dev 99.720% 0.050% 99.770% 0.230%
2. Monolith 2 57.025% 57.025% 18.344% 21.059% 3.572%
3. chess22k 1.14 18.729% 18.729% 68.912% 11.642% 0.713% 0.004%
4. ChessFighter 3.3 1.276% 1.276% 5.051% 57.721% 18.304% 7.014% 10.634%
5. Asymptote 0.8 0.280% 22.867% 23.147% 6.386% 4.261% 40.735% 15.793% 9.678%
6. FabChess 1.14.2 0.703% 14.118% 76.586% 8.593%
7. Combusken 1.1.1 0.053% 0.053% 1.077% 4.614% 22.558% 0.603% 71.095%
8. Tucano 8.07_dev2 100.000%
9. Bagatur 2.1 100.000%
10. Weiss 0.10-dev2 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 57.025%
2. Counter 3.5dev Asymptote 0.8 22.867%
3. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 18.499%
4. Counter 3.5dev ChessFighter 3.3 1.276%
5. Asymptote 0.8 chess22k 1.14 0.230%
6. Counter 3.5dev Combusken 1.1.1 0.053%
7. Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev 0.050%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Counter 3.5dev Monolith 2 57.025%
2. Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev 22.917%
3. Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14 18.499%
4. ChessFighter 3.3 Counter 3.5dev 1.276%
5. Asymptote 0.8 chess22k 1.14 0.230%
6. Combusken 1.1.1 Counter 3.5dev 0.053%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 Counter 3.5dev 11.5 12.07 0.43 1.08 92 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 ChessFighter 3.3 10.0 11.20 0.59 3.07 8 36 21 18 12 6 0 0 0
3 Monolith 2 10.5 11.12 0.42 3.10 0 31 38 23 9 0 0 0 0
4 chess22k 1.14 10.5 10.93 0.43 3.71 0 13 25 40 22 0 0 0 0
5 Asymptote 0.8 9.5 10.67 0.60 4.37 0 13 17 18 30 20 3 0 0
6 FabChess 1.14.2 9.5 10.06 0.43 6.23 0 0 0 0 17 43 40 0 0
7 Combusken 1.1.1 9.5 9.94 0.43 6.45 0 0 0 0 12 32 57 0 0
8 Tucano 8.17_dev/8.07_dev2 6.5 7.16 0.58 8.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0
9 Bagatur 2.1 4.0 4.89 0.60 9.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
10 Weiss 0.10-dev/0.10-dev2 1.5 1.94 0.43 10.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.11h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-05-07 16:39 85 Bagatur 2.1 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-07 17:46 86 Weiss 0.10-dev2 Bagatur 2.1
2020-05-07 18:53 87 Asymptote 0.8 ChessFighter 3.3
2020-05-07 19:59 88 Tucano 8.07_dev2 Monolith 2
2020-05-07 21:06 89 FabChess 1.14.2 Combusken 1.1.1
2020-05-07 22:13 90 Counter 3.5dev chess22k 1.14
Posted inBayesElo