For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Demolito 20200426 28.155% 20.521% 48.676% 14.686% 11.053% 8.213% 6.327% 4.636% 3.282% 3.127% 2.060% 1.067%
2. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 20.785% 18.122% 38.907% 14.633% 11.836% 9.694% 7.865% 6.414% 5.049% 5.602% 3.575% 2.027%
3. Topple 0.7.5-dev 15.491% 11.257% 26.748% 9.699% 8.570% 8.058% 7.924% 8.211% 8.522% 22.268% 9.827% 12.441%
4. Minic 2.17 12.544% 11.400% 23.944% 10.447% 9.733% 9.502% 9.022% 9.021% 9.098% 19.233% 9.430% 9.803%
5. iCE 4.0.853 4.320% 9.021% 13.341% 12.637% 14.407% 14.806% 14.108% 12.026% 9.415% 9.260% 6.429% 2.831%
6. Counter 3.5dev 4.589% 8.601% 13.190% 11.583% 13.120% 13.540% 13.040% 12.265% 10.646% 12.616% 8.117% 4.499%
7. Marvin 3.6.0-a6 5.641% 7.400% 13.041% 8.493% 9.251% 9.661% 10.709% 11.131% 11.999% 25.715% 12.713% 13.002%
8. Gogobello 2.2 5.045% 7.138% 12.183% 8.193% 8.936% 9.819% 10.321% 11.255% 12.232% 27.061% 13.258% 13.803%
9. Asymptote 0.8 0.883% 2.582% 3.465% 4.532% 6.941% 9.528% 12.273% 14.910% 17.286% 31.065% 17.518% 13.547%
10. Pirarucu 3.3.5 2.547% 3.958% 6.505% 5.097% 6.153% 7.179% 8.411% 10.131% 12.471% 44.053% 17.073% 26.980%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Demolito 20200426 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 7.208%
2. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Demolito 20200426 6.349%
3. Topple 0.7.5-dev Demolito 20200426 4.621%
4. Demolito 20200426 Topple 0.7.5-dev 4.143%
5. Demolito 20200426 Minic 2.17 4.106%
6. Minic 2.17 Demolito 20200426 3.580%
7. Topple 0.7.5-dev Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 3.420%
8. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Topple 0.7.5-dev 2.929%
9. Minic 2.17 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 2.859%
10. Demolito 20200426 iCE 4.0.853 2.847%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Demolito 20200426 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 13.557%
2. Demolito 20200426 Topple 0.7.5-dev 8.764%
3. Demolito 20200426 Minic 2.17 7.686%
4. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Topple 0.7.5-dev 6.349%
5. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Minic 2.17 5.642%
6. Demolito 20200426 iCE 4.0.853 3.982%
7. Counter 3.5dev Demolito 20200426 3.972%
8. Demolito 20200426 Marvin 3.6.0-a6 3.908%
9. Demolito 20200426 Gogobello 2.2 3.672%
10. Minic 2.17 Topple 0.7.5-dev 3.539%

Speculate Minic 2.17 – Counter 3.5dev 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Minic 2.17 25.291% 18.457% 43.748% 14.046% 10.848% 8.629% 7.061% 5.567% 4.263% 5.838% 3.517% 2.321%
2. Demolito 20200426 20.974% 18.759% 39.733% 15.061% 12.090% 9.783% 7.528% 5.955% 4.640% 5.210% 3.232% 1.978%
3. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 19.750% 18.204% 37.954% 15.272% 12.072% 9.745% 7.813% 6.340% 5.016% 5.788% 3.606% 2.182%
4. Topple 0.7.5-dev 14.961% 11.182% 26.143% 9.958% 8.722% 8.265% 7.909% 7.946% 8.290% 22.767% 9.586% 13.181%
5. iCE 4.0.853 3.896% 8.640% 12.536% 12.219% 14.821% 15.016% 14.217% 12.253% 9.620% 9.318% 6.303% 3.015%
6. Marvin 3.6.0-a6 5.212% 7.327% 12.539% 8.565% 9.412% 9.989% 10.690% 10.997% 11.680% 26.128% 12.914% 13.214%
7. Counter 3.5dev 1.695% 4.161% 5.856% 7.037% 9.592% 12.003% 13.752% 14.811% 14.998% 21.951% 13.218% 8.733%
8. Gogobello 2.2 4.886% 6.874% 11.760% 8.097% 9.163% 9.861% 10.361% 11.125% 12.004% 27.629% 13.500% 14.129%
9. Asymptote 0.8 0.907% 2.494% 3.401% 4.578% 7.125% 9.520% 12.381% 14.959% 17.071% 30.965% 17.384% 13.581%
10. Pirarucu 3.3.5 2.428% 3.902% 6.330% 5.167% 6.155% 7.189% 8.288% 10.047% 12.418% 44.406% 16.740% 27.666%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Minic 2.17 Demolito 20200426 6.489%
2. Minic 2.17 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 6.082%
3. Demolito 20200426 Minic 2.17 5.600%
4. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Minic 2.17 5.081%
5. Demolito 20200426 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 4.963%
6. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Demolito 20200426 4.817%
7. Topple 0.7.5-dev Minic 2.17 3.781%
8. Minic 2.17 Topple 0.7.5-dev 3.560%
9. Topple 0.7.5-dev Demolito 20200426 3.489%
10. Topple 0.7.5-dev Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 3.246%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Demolito 20200426 Minic 2.17 12.089%
2. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Minic 2.17 11.163%
3. Demolito 20200426 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 9.780%
4. Minic 2.17 Topple 0.7.5-dev 7.341%
5. Demolito 20200426 Topple 0.7.5-dev 6.308%
6. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Topple 0.7.5-dev 5.969%
7. Marvin 3.6.0-a6 Minic 2.17 3.159%
8. Minic 2.17 iCE 4.0.853 3.139%
9. Gogobello 2.2 Minic 2.17 2.849%
10. Demolito 20200426 Marvin 3.6.0-a6 2.795%

Speculate Minic 2.17 – Counter 3.5dev 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Demolito 20200426 24.528% 18.469% 42.997% 14.166% 11.109% 8.967% 7.334% 5.714% 4.503% 5.210% 3.227% 1.983%
2. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 22.856% 18.192% 41.048% 13.797% 11.178% 9.178% 7.624% 6.387% 5.047% 5.741% 3.661% 2.080%
3. Topple 0.7.5-dev 16.714% 11.263% 27.977% 9.296% 8.217% 7.838% 7.716% 7.768% 8.702% 22.486% 9.687% 12.799%
4. iCE 4.0.853 4.951% 9.546% 14.497% 12.543% 14.324% 14.263% 13.675% 11.986% 9.329% 9.383% 6.441% 2.942%
5. Counter 3.5dev 5.312% 9.682% 14.994% 12.350% 13.388% 13.727% 13.098% 11.695% 9.973% 10.775% 7.154% 3.621%
6. Minic 2.17 9.434% 10.463% 19.897% 10.522% 10.417% 10.257% 10.284% 10.129% 10.046% 18.448% 9.883% 8.565%
7. Marvin 3.6.0-a6 6.258% 7.845% 14.103% 8.575% 8.916% 9.587% 10.249% 11.021% 11.567% 25.982% 12.692% 13.290%
8. Gogobello 2.2 5.700% 7.172% 12.872% 8.309% 8.933% 9.514% 9.715% 10.901% 11.846% 27.910% 13.668% 14.242%
9. Asymptote 0.8 1.250% 3.209% 4.459% 5.299% 7.427% 9.754% 12.098% 14.743% 16.686% 29.534% 16.890% 12.644%
10. Pirarucu 3.3.5 2.997% 4.159% 7.156% 5.143% 6.091% 6.915% 8.207% 9.656% 12.301% 44.531% 16.697% 27.834%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Demolito 20200426 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 6.386%
2. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Demolito 20200426 6.178%
3. Topple 0.7.5-dev Demolito 20200426 4.274%
4. Topple 0.7.5-dev Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 4.033%
5. Demolito 20200426 Topple 0.7.5-dev 3.596%
6. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Topple 0.7.5-dev 3.296%
7. Demolito 20200426 Minic 2.17 2.955%
8. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Minic 2.17 2.827%
9. Demolito 20200426 iCE 4.0.853 2.676%
10. Demolito 20200426 Counter 3.5dev 2.539%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Demolito 20200426 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 12.564%
2. Demolito 20200426 Topple 0.7.5-dev 7.870%
3. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Topple 0.7.5-dev 7.329%
4. Demolito 20200426 Minic 2.17 5.176%
5. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Minic 2.17 4.900%
6. Demolito 20200426 iCE 4.0.853 3.844%
7. Counter 3.5dev Demolito 20200426 3.674%
8. Counter 3.5dev Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 3.621%
9. Demolito 20200426 Marvin 3.6.0-a6 3.568%
10. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Marvin 3.6.0-a6 3.479%

Speculate Minic 2.17 – Counter 3.5dev 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Demolito 20200426 24.572% 18.441% 43.013% 14.188% 11.321% 9.171% 7.498% 5.929% 4.264% 4.616% 3.014% 1.602%
2. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 22.419% 17.858% 40.277% 14.365% 11.478% 9.536% 7.906% 6.354% 4.925% 5.159% 3.376% 1.783%
3. Counter 3.5dev 12.480% 17.176% 29.656% 17.175% 15.132% 12.619% 9.987% 7.277% 4.803% 3.351% 2.477% 0.874%
4. Topple 0.7.5-dev 16.626% 10.949% 27.575% 9.237% 8.455% 8.180% 8.120% 8.383% 8.926% 21.124% 9.587% 11.537%
5. iCE 4.0.853 4.778% 9.296% 14.074% 12.539% 14.478% 15.042% 14.112% 12.176% 9.280% 8.299% 5.870% 2.429%
6. Marvin 3.6.0-a6 6.074% 7.593% 13.667% 8.311% 9.358% 9.943% 10.647% 11.565% 12.223% 24.286% 12.468% 11.818%
7. Gogobello 2.2 5.623% 7.090% 12.713% 8.224% 9.094% 9.685% 10.673% 11.571% 12.378% 25.662% 13.142% 12.520%
8. Asymptote 0.8 1.339% 3.338% 4.677% 5.460% 8.025% 10.669% 13.243% 15.353% 16.827% 25.746% 15.650% 10.096%
9. Minic 2.17 3.202% 4.233% 7.435% 5.250% 6.489% 7.874% 9.267% 11.004% 13.342% 39.339% 17.006% 22.333%
10. Pirarucu 3.3.5 2.887% 4.026% 6.913% 5.251% 6.170% 7.281% 8.547% 10.388% 13.032% 42.418% 17.410% 25.008%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Demolito 20200426 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 6.073%
2. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Demolito 20200426 5.972%
3. Demolito 20200426 Counter 3.5dev 5.001%
4. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Counter 3.5dev 4.764%
5. Topple 0.7.5-dev Demolito 20200426 4.226%
6. Topple 0.7.5-dev Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 3.862%
7. Demolito 20200426 Topple 0.7.5-dev 3.570%
8. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Topple 0.7.5-dev 3.136%
9. Counter 3.5dev Demolito 20200426 3.035%
10. Topple 0.7.5-dev Counter 3.5dev 3.027%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Demolito 20200426 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 12.045%
2. Counter 3.5dev Demolito 20200426 8.036%
3. Demolito 20200426 Topple 0.7.5-dev 7.796%
4. Counter 3.5dev Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 7.559%
5. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Topple 0.7.5-dev 6.998%
6. Counter 3.5dev Topple 0.7.5-dev 4.573%
7. Demolito 20200426 Marvin 3.6.0-a6 3.498%
8. Demolito 20200426 iCE 4.0.853 3.493%
9. Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 iCE 4.0.853 3.353%
10. Demolito 20200426 Gogobello 2.2 3.261%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 Demolito 20200426 1.0 11.22 2.63 3.42 26 20 15 11 9 7 5 4 3
2 Igel 2.4.0/2.4.1-tcec-dev0 0.0 10.99 2.63 3.61 23 19 15 11 9 7 6 4 3
3 iCE 4.0.853 0.0 9.29 2.04 5.17 4 9 13 15 16 15 12 9 6
4 Topple 0.7.5-dev 0.0 9.28 3.62 5.26 16 12 10 8 8 8 8 9 10
5 Minic 2.17 0.0 9.28 3.24 5.25 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 10
6 Counter 3.5dev 0.0 9.08 2.27 5.41 5 9 12 13 14 14 13 10 8
7 Marvin 3.6.0-a6 0.0 8.26 2.90 6.20 5 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 13
8 Gogobello 2.2 0.0 8.11 2.89 6.34 5 7 8 9 9 10 11 13 14
9 Asymptote 0.8 0.0 7.70 2.14 6.86 1 3 5 8 10 13 16 17 16
10 Pirarucu 3.3.5 0.0 6.79 2.92 7.48 2 4 5 6 7 8 10 13 18

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.15h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-05-08 01:44 3 iCE 4.0.853 Topple 0.7.5-dev
2020-05-08 02:54 4 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Gogobello 2.2
2020-05-08 04:03 5 Pirarucu 3.3.5 Marvin 3.6.0-a6
2020-05-08 05:12 6 Asymptote 0.8 Marvin 3.6.0-a6
2020-05-08 06:21 7 Gogobello 2.2 Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-05-08 07:30 8 Topple 0.7.5-dev Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0
2020-05-08 08:39 9 Counter 3.5dev iCE 4.0.853
2020-05-08 09:48 10 Demolito 20200426 Minic 2.17
2020-05-08 10:58 11 Minic 2.17 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-08 12:07 12 iCE 4.0.853 Demolito 20200426
2020-05-08 13:16 13 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-08 14:25 14 Pirarucu 3.3.5 Topple 0.7.5-dev
2020-05-08 15:34 15 Marvin 3.6.0-a6 Gogobello 2.2
2020-05-08 16:43 16 Asymptote 0.8 Gogobello 2.2
2020-05-08 17:53 17 Topple 0.7.5-dev Marvin 3.6.0-a6
2020-05-08 19:02 18 Counter 3.5dev Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-05-08 20:11 19 Demolito 20200426 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0
2020-05-08 21:20 20 Minic 2.17 iCE 4.0.853
2020-05-08 22:29 21 iCE 4.0.853 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-08 23:38 22 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Minic 2.17
2020-05-09 00:48 23 Pirarucu 3.3.5 Demolito 20200426
2020-05-09 01:57 24 Marvin 3.6.0-a6 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-09 03:06 25 Gogobello 2.2 Topple 0.7.5-dev
2020-05-09 04:15 26 Asymptote 0.8 Topple 0.7.5-dev
2020-05-09 05:24 27 Counter 3.5dev Gogobello 2.2
2020-05-09 06:33 28 Demolito 20200426 Marvin 3.6.0-a6
2020-05-09 07:42 29 Minic 2.17 Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-05-09 08:52 30 iCE 4.0.853 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0
2020-05-09 10:01 31 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-09 11:10 32 Pirarucu 3.3.5 iCE 4.0.853
2020-05-09 12:19 33 Marvin 3.6.0-a6 Minic 2.17
2020-05-09 13:28 34 Gogobello 2.2 Demolito 20200426
2020-05-09 14:37 35 Topple 0.7.5-dev Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-09 15:47 36 Asymptote 0.8 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-09 16:56 37 Demolito 20200426 Topple 0.7.5-dev
2020-05-09 18:05 38 Minic 2.17 Gogobello 2.2
2020-05-09 19:14 39 iCE 4.0.853 Marvin 3.6.0-a6
2020-05-09 20:23 40 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-05-09 21:32 41 Pirarucu 3.3.5 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-09 22:41 42 Marvin 3.6.0-a6 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0
2020-05-09 23:51 43 Gogobello 2.2 iCE 4.0.853
2020-05-10 01:00 44 Topple 0.7.5-dev Minic 2.17
2020-05-10 02:09 45 Counter 3.5dev Demolito 20200426
2020-05-10 03:18 46 Asymptote 0.8 Demolito 20200426
2020-05-10 04:27 47 Counter 3.5dev Minic 2.17
2020-05-10 05:36 48 Topple 0.7.5-dev iCE 4.0.853
2020-05-10 06:46 49 Gogobello 2.2 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0
2020-05-10 07:55 50 Marvin 3.6.0-a6 Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-05-10 09:04 51 Marvin 3.6.0-a6 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-10 10:13 52 Pirarucu 3.3.5 Gogobello 2.2
2020-05-10 11:22 53 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Topple 0.7.5-dev
2020-05-10 12:31 54 iCE 4.0.853 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-10 13:40 55 Minic 2.17 Demolito 20200426
2020-05-10 14:50 56 Asymptote 0.8 Minic 2.17
2020-05-10 15:59 57 Demolito 20200426 iCE 4.0.853
2020-05-10 17:08 58 Counter 3.5dev Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0
2020-05-10 18:17 59 Topple 0.7.5-dev Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-05-10 19:26 60 Gogobello 2.2 Marvin 3.6.0-a6
2020-05-10 20:35 61 Gogobello 2.2 Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-10 21:45 62 Marvin 3.6.0-a6 Topple 0.7.5-dev
2020-05-10 22:54 63 Pirarucu 3.3.5 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-11 00:03 64 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Demolito 20200426
2020-05-11 01:12 65 iCE 4.0.853 Minic 2.17
2020-05-11 02:21 66 Asymptote 0.8 iCE 4.0.853
2020-05-11 03:30 67 Minic 2.17 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0
2020-05-11 04:39 68 Demolito 20200426 Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-05-11 05:49 69 Counter 3.5dev Marvin 3.6.0-a6
2020-05-11 06:58 70 Topple 0.7.5-dev Gogobello 2.2
2020-05-11 08:07 71 Topple 0.7.5-dev Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-11 09:16 72 Gogobello 2.2 Counter 3.5dev
2020-05-11 10:25 73 Marvin 3.6.0-a6 Demolito 20200426
2020-05-11 11:34 74 Pirarucu 3.3.5 Minic 2.17
2020-05-11 12:44 75 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 iCE 4.0.853
2020-05-11 13:53 76 Asymptote 0.8 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0
2020-05-11 15:02 77 iCE 4.0.853 Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-05-11 16:11 78 Minic 2.17 Marvin 3.6.0-a6
2020-05-11 17:20 79 Demolito 20200426 Gogobello 2.2
2020-05-11 18:29 80 Counter 3.5dev Topple 0.7.5-dev
2020-05-11 19:39 81 Counter 3.5dev Asymptote 0.8
2020-05-11 20:48 82 Topple 0.7.5-dev Demolito 20200426
2020-05-11 21:57 83 Gogobello 2.2 Minic 2.17
2020-05-11 23:06 84 Marvin 3.6.0-a6 iCE 4.0.853
2020-05-12 00:15 85 Pirarucu 3.3.5 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0
2020-05-12 01:24 86 Asymptote 0.8 Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-05-12 02:33 87 Igel 2.4.1-tcec-dev0 Marvin 3.6.0-a6
2020-05-12 03:43 88 iCE 4.0.853 Gogobello 2.2
2020-05-12 04:52 89 Minic 2.17 Topple 0.7.5-dev
2020-05-12 06:01 90 Demolito 20200426 Counter 3.5dev