May 16 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Booot 6.4 98.251% 1.052% 99.303% 0.697%
2. Pedone 20200510 0.706% 96.874% 97.580% 2.420%
3. Winter 0.7.5 1.043% 2.074% 3.117% 96.883%
4. Chiron TCEC16 50.359% 22.622% 10.624% 16.395%
5. Wasp 3.90 30.612% 39.139% 23.793% 6.385% 0.071%
6. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 17.105% 26.434% 45.221% 5.815% 5.425%
7. ChessBrainVB 3.74 1.701% 10.745% 15.905% 61.725% 9.446% 0.478% 0.478%
8. Demolito 20200426 0.223% 1.060% 4.453% 9.144% 82.730% 2.390% 2.390%
9. Nemorino 5.38 0.004% 0.536% 2.328% 97.132% 96.862% 0.270%
10. Gogobello 2.2 100.000% 0.270% 99.730%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Booot 6.4 Pedone 20200510 96.874%
2. Booot 6.4 Winter 0.7.5 1.377%
3. Winter 0.7.5 Booot 6.4 1.043%
4. Pedone 20200510 Winter 0.7.5 0.697%
5. Pedone 20200510 Booot 6.4 0.009%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Booot 6.4 Pedone 20200510 96.883%
2. Booot 6.4 Winter 0.7.5 2.420%
3. Pedone 20200510 Winter 0.7.5 0.697%

Speculate Booot 6.4 – Nemorino 5.38 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Booot 6.4 100.000% 100.000%
2. Pedone 20200510 97.797% 97.797% 2.203%
3. Winter 0.7.5 2.203% 2.203% 97.797%
4. Chiron TCEC16 50.321% 22.580% 10.662% 16.437%
5. Wasp 3.90 30.657% 39.041% 23.679% 6.550% 0.073%
6. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 16.990% 26.498% 45.205% 5.859% 5.448%
7. ChessBrainVB 3.74 1.823% 10.795% 16.000% 61.882% 9.500%
8. Demolito 20200426 0.209% 1.086% 4.454% 9.272% 84.979%
9. Nemorino 5.38 100.000% 98.998% 1.002%
10. Gogobello 2.2 100.000% 1.002% 98.998%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Booot 6.4 Pedone 20200510 97.797%
2. Booot 6.4 Winter 0.7.5 2.203%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Booot 6.4 Pedone 20200510 97.797%
2. Booot 6.4 Winter 0.7.5 2.203%

Speculate Booot 6.4 – Nemorino 5.38 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Booot 6.4 98.139% 1.454% 99.593% 0.407%
2. Pedone 20200510 0.407% 97.134% 97.541% 2.459%
3. Winter 0.7.5 1.454% 1.412% 2.866% 97.134%
4. Chiron TCEC16 50.612% 22.407% 10.693% 16.288%
5. Wasp 3.90 30.878% 39.320% 23.422% 6.319% 0.061%
6. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 16.715% 26.863% 45.429% 5.622% 5.371%
7. ChessBrainVB 3.74 1.626% 10.248% 16.027% 61.771% 10.328%
8. Demolito 20200426 0.169% 1.162% 4.429% 10.000% 81.869% 2.371% 2.371%
9. Nemorino 5.38 2.371% 97.629% 97.629%
10. Gogobello 2.2 100.000% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Booot 6.4 Pedone 20200510 97.134%
2. Winter 0.7.5 Booot 6.4 1.454%
3. Booot 6.4 Winter 0.7.5 1.005%
4. Pedone 20200510 Winter 0.7.5 0.407%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Booot 6.4 Pedone 20200510 97.134%
2. Booot 6.4 Winter 0.7.5 2.459%
3. Pedone 20200510 Winter 0.7.5 0.407%

Speculate Booot 6.4 – Nemorino 5.38 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Booot 6.4 87.848% 2.274% 90.122% 9.878%
2. Pedone 20200510 10.149% 87.334% 97.483% 2.517%
3. Winter 0.7.5 2.003% 10.392% 12.395% 87.605%
4. Chiron TCEC16 51.100% 22.568% 10.504% 15.828%
5. Wasp 3.90 30.358% 39.731% 23.506% 6.327% 0.078%
6. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 16.808% 26.459% 45.801% 5.532% 5.400%
7. ChessBrainVB 3.74 1.542% 10.172% 15.413% 59.684% 2.582% 10.607% 10.607%
8. Demolito 20200426 0.192% 1.070% 4.626% 0.450% 76.568% 17.094% 17.094%
9. Nemorino 5.38 0.150% 12.179% 15.372% 72.299% 72.299%
10. Gogobello 2.2 100.000% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Booot 6.4 Pedone 20200510 87.334%
2. Pedone 20200510 Winter 0.7.5 9.878%
3. Winter 0.7.5 Booot 6.4 2.003%
4. Booot 6.4 Winter 0.7.5 0.514%
5. Pedone 20200510 Booot 6.4 0.271%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Booot 6.4 Pedone 20200510 87.605%
2. Pedone 20200510 Winter 0.7.5 9.878%
3. Booot 6.4 Winter 0.7.5 2.517%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 Booot 6.4 12.0 13.22 0.59 1.07 94 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Pedone 20200420/20200510 11.5 12.16 0.41 2.10 4 82 14 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 Winter 0.7.4/0.7.5 10.5 11.54 0.62 2.82 2 14 84 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 8.0 8.63 0.41 4.78 0 0 0 47 33 16 5 0 0
5 Wasp 3.90 7.5 8.53 0.61 5.16 0 0 0 37 28 19 13 3 0
6 Chiron TCEC16 8.0 8.34 0.41 5.65 0 0 0 13 27 41 19 0 0
7 ChessBrainVB 3.74 7.5 7.99 0.43 6.64 0 0 0 2 12 23 46 14 2
8 Demolito 20200426 7.0 7.37 0.41 8.00 0 0 0 0 0 1 11 73 15
9 Nemorino 5.38 6.0 6.79 0.59 8.76 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 11 83
10 Gogobello 2.2 5.0 5.43 0.42 10.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-05-16 14:44 85 Wasp 3.90 Winter 0.7.5
2020-05-16 15:45 86 Gogobello 2.2 Wasp 3.90
2020-05-16 16:47 87 Winter 0.7.5 Booot 6.4
2020-05-16 17:49 88 Nemorino 5.38 ChessBrainVB 3.74
2020-05-16 18:51 89 Pedone 20200510 Chiron TCEC16
2020-05-16 19:53 90 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S17 Demolito 20200426
Posted inBayesElo