For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 021819 15.821% 15.856% 31.677% 14.460% 12.853% 11.280% 9.481% 8.054% 6.113% 6.082% 4.115% 1.967%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 13.521% 14.212% 27.733% 13.603% 12.872% 11.618% 10.451% 8.893% 7.242% 7.588% 5.073% 2.515%
3. Xiphos 0.6.1 10.598% 11.300% 21.898% 11.614% 11.298% 11.146% 10.904% 10.309% 9.681% 13.150% 7.986% 5.164%
4. Booot 6.4 8.623% 10.041% 18.664% 10.584% 11.120% 11.330% 11.705% 11.291% 10.374% 14.932% 8.986% 5.946%
5. Pedone 20200510 7.897% 9.603% 17.500% 10.626% 11.150% 11.614% 11.453% 11.502% 10.571% 15.584% 9.328% 6.256%
6. rofChade 2.301 5.781% 7.701% 13.482% 9.081% 10.181% 11.043% 11.880% 12.263% 12.548% 19.522% 11.470% 8.052%
7. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 8.929% 8.539% 17.468% 8.453% 8.633% 9.110% 9.584% 10.232% 11.352% 25.168% 12.575% 12.593%
8. RubiChess 1.7.3 10.378% 8.732% 19.110% 8.457% 8.322% 8.554% 9.102% 9.643% 10.803% 26.009% 12.329% 13.680%
9. Fritz 17_20200130 12.924% 8.102% 21.026% 7.074% 6.865% 7.049% 7.364% 8.152% 9.216% 33.254% 12.294% 20.960%
10. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 5.528% 5.914% 11.442% 6.048% 6.706% 7.256% 8.076% 9.661% 12.100% 38.711% 15.844% 22.867%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 2.832%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Fire 021819 2.585%
3. Fritz 17_20200130 Fire 021819 2.433%
4. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 2.133%
5. Xiphos 0.6.1 Fire 021819 2.111%
6. Fritz 17_20200130 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 2.045%
7. RubiChess 1.7.3 Fire 021819 1.937%
8. Fire 021819 Booot 6.4 1.894%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Xiphos 0.6.1 1.750%
10. Fire 021819 Pedone 20200510 1.746%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 5.417%
2. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 4.244%
3. Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130 3.992%
4. Fire 021819 RubiChess 1.7.3 3.584%
5. Booot 6.4 Fire 021819 3.492%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Xiphos 0.6.1 3.470%
7. Fritz 17_20200130 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 3.348%
8. Fire 021819 Pedone 20200510 3.229%
9. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fire 021819 3.202%
10. Pedone 20200510 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 3.086%

Speculate Xiphos 0.6.1 – Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Xiphos 0.6.1 20.343% 17.366% 37.709% 14.614% 12.285% 10.706% 8.637% 6.895% 5.067% 4.087% 3.030% 1.057%
2. Fire 021819 14.665% 15.276% 29.941% 14.339% 13.272% 11.899% 10.022% 8.441% 6.399% 5.687% 3.980% 1.707%
3. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 12.037% 13.530% 25.567% 13.477% 13.059% 12.270% 11.098% 9.510% 7.603% 7.416% 5.166% 2.250%
4. Booot 6.4 8.027% 9.638% 17.665% 10.507% 11.217% 11.632% 12.018% 11.812% 10.804% 14.345% 9.084% 5.261%
5. Pedone 20200510 7.301% 9.186% 16.487% 10.400% 11.313% 11.677% 12.241% 11.873% 11.485% 14.524% 9.293% 5.231%
6. rofChade 2.301 6.744% 8.747% 15.491% 10.032% 11.011% 11.691% 12.350% 12.469% 11.704% 15.252% 9.665% 5.587%
7. RubiChess 1.7.3 9.529% 8.250% 17.779% 8.503% 8.383% 8.861% 9.551% 10.377% 11.637% 24.909% 12.888% 12.021%
8. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 7.631% 7.874% 15.505% 8.179% 8.522% 9.011% 9.859% 11.071% 12.286% 25.567% 13.602% 11.965%
9. Fritz 17_20200130 12.189% 7.829% 20.018% 6.947% 6.978% 7.110% 7.627% 8.548% 10.330% 32.442% 13.340% 19.102%
10. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 1.534% 2.304% 3.838% 3.002% 3.960% 5.143% 6.597% 9.004% 12.685% 55.771% 19.952% 35.819%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Xiphos 0.6.1 Fire 021819 4.056%
2. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 3.373%
3. Xiphos 0.6.1 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 3.272%
4. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Xiphos 0.6.1 2.696%
5. Fritz 17_20200130 Xiphos 0.6.1 2.647%
6. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 2.373%
7. Xiphos 0.6.1 Booot 6.4 2.222%
8. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Fire 021819 2.218%
9. Xiphos 0.6.1 Pedone 20200510 2.121%
10. RubiChess 1.7.3 Xiphos 0.6.1 2.107%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 7.429%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Xiphos 0.6.1 5.968%
3. Fritz 17_20200130 Xiphos 0.6.1 4.610%
4. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 4.591%
5. RubiChess 1.7.3 Xiphos 0.6.1 4.138%
6. Booot 6.4 Xiphos 0.6.1 3.914%
7. Pedone 20200510 Xiphos 0.6.1 3.629%
8. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Xiphos 0.6.1 3.512%
9. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.301 3.484%
10. Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130 3.347%

Speculate Xiphos 0.6.1 – Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 021819 16.346% 16.074% 32.420% 14.424% 12.769% 11.055% 9.371% 7.759% 5.982% 6.220% 4.134% 2.086%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 14.214% 14.690% 28.904% 14.043% 12.699% 11.299% 10.039% 8.440% 6.959% 7.617% 4.904% 2.713%
3. Booot 6.4 8.505% 10.075% 18.580% 10.511% 11.030% 11.113% 11.263% 10.999% 10.625% 15.879% 9.346% 6.533%
4. Pedone 20200510 8.276% 9.854% 18.130% 10.751% 11.268% 11.407% 11.190% 11.058% 10.351% 15.845% 9.433% 6.412%
5. Xiphos 0.6.1 7.757% 9.453% 17.210% 10.503% 10.966% 11.565% 11.505% 11.426% 10.860% 15.965% 9.496% 6.469%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 9.380% 8.823% 18.203% 8.627% 8.749% 9.088% 9.483% 10.149% 10.858% 24.843% 12.106% 12.737%
7. rofChade 2.301 5.364% 7.256% 12.620% 8.446% 9.686% 10.612% 11.564% 12.142% 12.861% 22.069% 12.350% 9.719%
8. RubiChess 1.7.3 10.643% 8.930% 19.573% 8.372% 8.211% 8.434% 9.033% 9.615% 10.497% 26.265% 12.012% 14.253%
9. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 6.184% 6.699% 12.883% 7.107% 7.859% 8.621% 9.284% 10.490% 12.031% 31.725% 14.389% 17.336%
10. Fritz 17_20200130 13.331% 8.146% 21.477% 7.216% 6.763% 6.806% 7.268% 7.922% 8.976% 33.572% 11.830% 21.742%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 3.019%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Fire 021819 2.898%
3. Fritz 17_20200130 Fire 021819 2.636%
4. Fritz 17_20200130 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 2.191%
5. RubiChess 1.7.3 Fire 021819 1.907%
6. Fire 021819 Booot 6.4 1.907%
7. Fire 021819 Pedone 20200510 1.892%
8. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 1.828%
9. RubiChess 1.7.3 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 1.818%
10. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fire 021819 1.800%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 5.917%
2. Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130 4.243%
3. Fire 021819 RubiChess 1.7.3 3.689%
4. Booot 6.4 Fire 021819 3.533%
5. Fire 021819 Pedone 20200510 3.500%
6. Fritz 17_20200130 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 3.495%
7. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fire 021819 3.480%
8. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 3.348%
9. Pedone 20200510 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 3.280%
10. RubiChess 1.7.3 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 3.264%

Speculate Xiphos 0.6.1 – Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 021819 15.690% 16.331% 32.021% 14.886% 12.866% 11.285% 9.514% 7.569% 5.724% 6.135% 4.115% 2.020%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 13.783% 14.872% 28.655% 14.320% 13.082% 11.696% 10.032% 8.343% 6.656% 7.216% 4.757% 2.459%
3. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 15.683% 12.554% 28.237% 11.082% 10.555% 9.990% 9.307% 8.880% 8.234% 13.715% 7.375% 6.340%
4. Booot 6.4 7.969% 9.845% 17.814% 10.823% 11.208% 11.366% 11.422% 11.120% 10.441% 15.806% 9.258% 6.548%
5. Pedone 20200510 7.703% 9.743% 17.446% 10.832% 11.483% 11.507% 11.390% 11.093% 10.650% 15.599% 8.959% 6.640%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 10.050% 9.509% 19.559% 9.201% 9.325% 9.303% 9.617% 9.871% 10.547% 22.577% 11.061% 11.516%
7. RubiChess 1.7.3 10.006% 8.888% 18.894% 8.648% 8.743% 8.772% 9.242% 9.870% 10.304% 25.527% 11.707% 13.820%
8. rofChade 2.301 3.676% 5.600% 9.276% 7.358% 8.728% 10.103% 11.392% 12.689% 13.755% 26.699% 14.258% 12.441%
9. Xiphos 0.6.1 2.541% 4.204% 6.745% 5.614% 7.114% 8.854% 10.774% 12.670% 14.675% 33.554% 16.882% 16.672%
10. Fritz 17_20200130 12.899% 8.454% 21.353% 7.236% 6.896% 7.124% 7.310% 7.895% 9.014% 33.172% 11.628% 21.544%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 Fire 021819 3.021%
2. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 2.979%
3. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Fire 021819 2.840%
4. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 2.705%
5. Fritz 17_20200130 Fire 021819 2.501%
6. Fire 021819 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 2.420%
7. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 2.138%
8. Fritz 17_20200130 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 2.087%
9. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fire 021819 1.913%
10. RubiChess 1.7.3 Fire 021819 1.909%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 5.819%
2. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 Fire 021819 5.441%
3. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 4.843%
4. Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130 4.050%
5. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fire 021819 3.696%
6. Fire 021819 RubiChess 1.7.3 3.608%
7. Fritz 17_20200130 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 3.495%
8. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 Fritz 17_20200130 3.487%
9. Booot 6.4 Fire 021819 3.350%
10. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 3.185%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 Fire 021819 0.0 10.33 1.89 3.89 18 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3
2 ScorpioNN 3.0.8/3.0.8.2 0.5 10.07 1.93 4.22 14 16 15 14 12 10 8 6 4
3 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.0 9.47 2.14 5.00 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 9 7
4 Booot 6.4 0.5 9.19 2.09 5.34 8 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 9
5 Pedone 20200420/20200510 0.5 9.11 2.08 5.44 7 9 11 11 12 12 12 11 9
6 rofChade 2.217/2.301 0.5 8.73 2.04 5.92 5 7 9 10 11 13 13 13 12
7 RubiChess 1.7.1/1.7.3 0.0 8.61 2.73 5.96 10 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 13
8 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.0 8.60 2.58 6.00 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 12 13
9 Fritz 17_20200130 0.0 8.33 3.29 6.18 14 8 7 6 6 7 8 9 13
10 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 0.0 7.56 2.68 7.06 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 12 17

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.50h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-05-19 06:24 4 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-05-19 07:54 5 RubiChess 1.7.3 Fire 021819
2020-05-19 09:24 6 Pedone 20200510 Fire 021819
2020-05-19 10:54 7 Fritz 17_20200130 RubiChess 1.7.3
2020-05-19 12:23 8 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-05-19 13:53 9 Booot 6.4 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-05-19 15:23 10 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 rofChade 2.301
2020-05-19 16:53 11 rofChade 2.301 Pedone 20200510
2020-05-19 18:22 12 Xiphos 0.6.1 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2
2020-05-19 19:52 13 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Booot 6.4
2020-05-19 21:22 14 RubiChess 1.7.3 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5
2020-05-19 22:52 15 Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-05-20 00:21 16 Pedone 20200510 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-05-20 01:51 17 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 Fire 021819
2020-05-20 03:21 18 Booot 6.4 RubiChess 1.7.3
2020-05-20 04:51 19 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-05-20 06:20 20 rofChade 2.301 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-05-20 07:50 21 Xiphos 0.6.1 Pedone 20200510
2020-05-20 09:20 22 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 rofChade 2.301
2020-05-20 10:50 23 RubiChess 1.7.3 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2
2020-05-20 12:19 24 Fire 021819 Booot 6.4
2020-05-20 13:49 25 Fritz 17_20200130 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5
2020-05-20 15:19 26 Pedone 20200510 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5
2020-05-20 16:49 27 Booot 6.4 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-05-20 18:19 28 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Fire 021819
2020-05-20 19:48 29 rofChade 2.301 RubiChess 1.7.3
2020-05-20 21:18 30 Xiphos 0.6.1 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-05-20 22:48 31 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Pedone 20200510
2020-05-21 00:18 32 RubiChess 1.7.3 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-05-21 01:47 33 Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301
2020-05-21 03:17 34 Fritz 17_20200130 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2
2020-05-21 04:47 35 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 Booot 6.4
2020-05-21 06:17 36 Pedone 20200510 Booot 6.4
2020-05-21 07:46 37 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5
2020-05-21 09:16 38 rofChade 2.301 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-05-21 10:46 39 Xiphos 0.6.1 Fire 021819
2020-05-21 12:16 40 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 RubiChess 1.7.3
2020-05-21 13:45 41 RubiChess 1.7.3 Pedone 20200510
2020-05-21 15:15 42 Fire 021819 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-05-21 16:45 43 Fritz 17_20200130 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-05-21 18:15 44 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 rofChade 2.301
2020-05-21 19:44 45 Booot 6.4 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2
2020-05-21 21:14 46 Pedone 20200510 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2
2020-05-21 22:44 47 Booot 6.4 rofChade 2.301
2020-05-22 00:14 48 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-05-22 01:43 49 Fritz 17_20200130 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-05-22 03:13 50 Fire 021819 RubiChess 1.7.3
2020-05-22 04:43 51 Fire 021819 Pedone 20200510
2020-05-22 06:13 52 RubiChess 1.7.3 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-05-22 07:43 53 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5
2020-05-22 09:12 54 Xiphos 0.6.1 Booot 6.4
2020-05-22 10:42 55 rofChade 2.301 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2
2020-05-22 12:12 56 Pedone 20200510 rofChade 2.301
2020-05-22 13:42 57 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-05-22 15:11 58 Booot 6.4 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-05-22 16:41 59 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 RubiChess 1.7.3
2020-05-22 18:11 60 Fritz 17_20200130 Fire 021819
2020-05-22 19:41 61 Fritz 17_20200130 Pedone 20200510
2020-05-22 21:10 62 Fire 021819 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5
2020-05-22 22:40 63 RubiChess 1.7.3 Booot 6.4
2020-05-23 00:10 64 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2
2020-05-23 01:40 65 Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.301
2020-05-23 03:09 66 Pedone 20200510 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-05-23 04:39 67 rofChade 2.301 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-05-23 06:09 68 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 RubiChess 1.7.3
2020-05-23 07:39 69 Booot 6.4 Fire 021819
2020-05-23 09:08 70 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-05-23 10:38 71 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 Pedone 20200510
2020-05-23 12:08 72 Fritz 17_20200130 Booot 6.4
2020-05-23 13:38 73 Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2
2020-05-23 15:07 74 RubiChess 1.7.3 rofChade 2.301
2020-05-23 16:37 75 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-05-23 18:07 76 Pedone 20200510 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-05-23 19:37 77 Xiphos 0.6.1 RubiChess 1.7.3
2020-05-23 21:07 78 rofChade 2.301 Fire 021819
2020-05-23 22:36 79 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-05-24 00:06 80 Booot 6.4 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5
2020-05-24 01:36 81 Booot 6.4 Pedone 20200510
2020-05-24 03:06 82 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2
2020-05-24 04:35 83 Fritz 17_20200130 rofChade 2.301
2020-05-24 06:05 84 Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-05-24 07:35 85 RubiChess 1.7.3 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-05-24 09:05 86 Pedone 20200510 RubiChess 1.7.3
2020-05-24 10:34 87 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fire 021819
2020-05-24 12:04 88 Xiphos 0.6.1 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-05-24 13:34 89 rofChade 2.301 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5
2020-05-24 15:04 90 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Booot 6.4