For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
| Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
|
9-10. |
|
9. |
10. |
| 1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
84.982% |
10.863% |
|
95.845% |
|
2.673% |
1.133% |
0.260% |
0.089% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2. |
rofChade 2.301 |
|
9.195% |
41.442% |
|
50.637% |
|
30.541% |
11.607% |
4.536% |
1.707% |
0.670% |
0.204% |
|
0.098% |
|
0.098% |
|
| 3. |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
|
1.141% |
19.350% |
|
20.491% |
|
20.841% |
20.642% |
16.621% |
10.738% |
7.803% |
2.458% |
|
0.406% |
|
0.406% |
|
| 4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
2.326% |
15.623% |
|
17.949% |
|
20.385% |
29.382% |
18.104% |
8.756% |
3.781% |
1.138% |
|
0.505% |
|
0.504% |
0.001% |
| 5. |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
|
2.106% |
10.211% |
|
12.317% |
|
16.954% |
22.474% |
26.822% |
10.720% |
7.899% |
2.416% |
|
0.398% |
|
0.398% |
|
| 6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
|
0.247% |
1.397% |
|
1.644% |
|
5.228% |
8.435% |
17.924% |
43.920% |
16.732% |
4.307% |
|
1.810% |
|
1.758% |
0.052% |
| 7. |
Booot 6.4 |
|
0.002% |
0.707% |
|
0.709% |
|
2.376% |
4.240% |
10.313% |
14.951% |
36.438% |
21.974% |
|
8.999% |
|
8.312% |
0.687% |
| 8. |
Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 |
|
0.001% |
0.319% |
|
0.320% |
|
0.773% |
1.580% |
4.021% |
6.442% |
19.740% |
41.100% |
|
26.024% |
|
25.868% |
0.156% |
| 9. |
RubiChess 1.7.3 |
|
|
0.088% |
|
0.088% |
|
0.229% |
0.507% |
1.399% |
2.670% |
6.883% |
25.834% |
|
62.390% |
|
57.263% |
5.127% |
| 10. |
Pedone 20200510 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.007% |
0.054% |
0.569% |
|
99.370% |
|
5.393% |
93.977% |
Top promotions
| Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
| 1. |
Fire 021819 |
rofChade 2.301 |
40.126% |
| 2. |
Fire 021819 |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
18.963% |
| 3. |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
14.637% |
| 4. |
Fire 021819 |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
9.082% |
| 5. |
rofChade 2.301 |
Fire 021819 |
7.183% |
| 6. |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
Fire 021819 |
1.347% |
| 7. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Fire 021819 |
1.313% |
| 8. |
Fire 021819 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
1.063% |
| 9. |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
Fire 021819 |
0.856% |
| 10. |
rofChade 2.301 |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
0.797% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. |
Fire 021819 |
rofChade 2.301 |
47.309% |
| 2. |
Fire 021819 |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
19.819% |
| 3. |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
15.950% |
| 4. |
Fire 021819 |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
10.429% |
| 5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
rofChade 2.301 |
1.403% |
| 6. |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
rofChade 2.301 |
1.296% |
| 7. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
Fire 021819 |
1.226% |
| 8. |
Booot 6.4 |
Fire 021819 |
0.705% |
| 9. |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
0.403% |
| 10. |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
rofChade 2.301 |
0.330% |
Speculate Fritz 17_20200130 – Booot 6.4 1-0
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
| Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
|
9-10. |
|
9. |
10. |
| 1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
81.965% |
12.866% |
|
94.831% |
|
3.037% |
1.412% |
0.578% |
0.141% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2. |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
|
4.818% |
44.366% |
|
49.184% |
|
23.943% |
14.221% |
10.289% |
2.219% |
0.141% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
| 3. |
rofChade 2.301 |
|
8.750% |
23.560% |
|
32.310% |
|
40.392% |
19.054% |
5.691% |
1.742% |
0.580% |
0.190% |
|
0.041% |
|
0.041% |
|
| 4. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
2.190% |
9.889% |
|
12.079% |
|
16.796% |
32.730% |
24.562% |
10.317% |
2.316% |
0.953% |
|
0.247% |
|
0.247% |
|
| 5. |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
|
2.047% |
8.282% |
|
10.329% |
|
12.487% |
22.045% |
34.562% |
12.969% |
5.687% |
1.587% |
|
0.334% |
|
0.334% |
|
| 6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
|
0.229% |
0.927% |
|
1.156% |
|
2.443% |
8.407% |
16.761% |
53.684% |
13.370% |
3.321% |
|
0.858% |
|
0.818% |
0.040% |
| 7. |
Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 |
|
|
0.090% |
|
0.090% |
|
0.651% |
1.383% |
4.480% |
7.462% |
39.412% |
27.539% |
|
18.983% |
|
18.841% |
0.142% |
| 8. |
Booot 6.4 |
|
|
0.002% |
|
0.002% |
|
0.052% |
0.315% |
1.732% |
7.392% |
25.939% |
37.938% |
|
26.630% |
|
24.088% |
2.542% |
| 9. |
RubiChess 1.7.3 |
|
0.001% |
0.018% |
|
0.019% |
|
0.199% |
0.433% |
1.345% |
4.061% |
12.472% |
27.174% |
|
54.297% |
|
49.631% |
4.666% |
| 10. |
Pedone 20200510 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.013% |
0.082% |
1.295% |
|
98.610% |
|
6.000% |
92.610% |
Top promotions
| Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
| 1. |
Fire 021819 |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
43.054% |
| 2. |
Fire 021819 |
rofChade 2.301 |
22.028% |
| 3. |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
8.957% |
| 4. |
Fire 021819 |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
7.191% |
| 5. |
rofChade 2.301 |
Fire 021819 |
6.484% |
| 6. |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
Fire 021819 |
3.926% |
| 7. |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
Fire 021819 |
1.184% |
| 8. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Fire 021819 |
1.141% |
| 9. |
rofChade 2.301 |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
0.704% |
| 10. |
rofChade 2.301 |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
0.691% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. |
Fire 021819 |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
46.980% |
| 2. |
Fire 021819 |
rofChade 2.301 |
28.512% |
| 3. |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
10.098% |
| 4. |
Fire 021819 |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
8.375% |
| 5. |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
rofChade 2.301 |
1.280% |
| 6. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
rofChade 2.301 |
1.136% |
| 7. |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
rofChade 2.301 |
1.135% |
| 8. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
Fire 021819 |
0.756% |
| 9. |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
0.450% |
| 10. |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
0.400% |
Speculate Fritz 17_20200130 – Booot 6.4 1/2-1/2
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
| Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
|
9-10. |
|
9. |
10. |
| 1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
85.421% |
10.603% |
|
96.024% |
|
2.644% |
1.055% |
0.186% |
0.088% |
0.003% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2. |
rofChade 2.301 |
|
9.242% |
44.315% |
|
53.557% |
|
29.344% |
10.246% |
4.210% |
1.656% |
0.701% |
0.178% |
|
0.108% |
|
0.108% |
|
| 3. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
2.422% |
16.377% |
|
18.799% |
|
20.395% |
29.065% |
17.610% |
8.494% |
3.858% |
1.209% |
|
0.570% |
|
0.570% |
|
| 4. |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
|
0.589% |
15.971% |
|
16.560% |
|
21.627% |
23.355% |
18.520% |
11.419% |
6.157% |
1.969% |
|
0.393% |
|
0.393% |
|
| 5. |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
|
2.140% |
10.467% |
|
12.607% |
|
17.594% |
22.091% |
26.461% |
10.536% |
7.801% |
2.520% |
|
0.390% |
|
0.390% |
|
| 6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
|
0.184% |
1.386% |
|
1.570% |
|
5.563% |
8.481% |
18.167% |
43.030% |
17.043% |
4.262% |
|
1.884% |
|
1.818% |
0.066% |
| 7. |
Booot 6.4 |
|
|
0.429% |
|
0.429% |
|
1.797% |
3.578% |
9.657% |
16.229% |
41.560% |
20.439% |
|
6.311% |
|
5.945% |
0.366% |
| 8. |
Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 |
|
0.002% |
0.346% |
|
0.348% |
|
0.829% |
1.610% |
3.872% |
5.997% |
16.996% |
43.423% |
|
26.925% |
|
26.777% |
0.148% |
| 9. |
RubiChess 1.7.3 |
|
|
0.106% |
|
0.106% |
|
0.207% |
0.519% |
1.317% |
2.545% |
5.828% |
25.553% |
|
63.925% |
|
58.890% |
5.035% |
| 10. |
Pedone 20200510 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.053% |
0.447% |
|
99.494% |
|
5.109% |
94.385% |
Top promotions
| Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
| 1. |
Fire 021819 |
rofChade 2.301 |
43.011% |
| 2. |
Fire 021819 |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
15.741% |
| 3. |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
15.358% |
| 4. |
Fire 021819 |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
9.351% |
| 5. |
rofChade 2.301 |
Fire 021819 |
7.303% |
| 6. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Fire 021819 |
1.397% |
| 7. |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
Fire 021819 |
1.380% |
| 8. |
Fire 021819 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
1.082% |
| 9. |
rofChade 2.301 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
0.794% |
| 10. |
rofChade 2.301 |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
0.792% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. |
Fire 021819 |
rofChade 2.301 |
50.314% |
| 2. |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
16.755% |
| 3. |
Fire 021819 |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
16.135% |
| 4. |
Fire 021819 |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
10.731% |
| 5. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
rofChade 2.301 |
1.473% |
| 6. |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
rofChade 2.301 |
1.296% |
| 7. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
Fire 021819 |
1.211% |
| 8. |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
0.434% |
| 9. |
Booot 6.4 |
Fire 021819 |
0.428% |
| 10. |
Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 |
Fire 021819 |
0.344% |
Speculate Fritz 17_20200130 – Booot 6.4 0-1
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
| Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
|
9-10. |
|
9. |
10. |
| 1. |
Fire 021819 |
|
86.155% |
9.877% |
|
96.032% |
|
2.812% |
0.958% |
0.172% |
0.024% |
0.002% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2. |
rofChade 2.301 |
|
8.888% |
49.920% |
|
58.808% |
|
24.637% |
8.893% |
4.507% |
1.889% |
0.810% |
0.326% |
|
0.130% |
|
0.130% |
|
| 3. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
2.430% |
18.253% |
|
20.683% |
|
27.074% |
25.790% |
11.599% |
8.240% |
4.679% |
1.287% |
|
0.648% |
|
0.648% |
|
| 4. |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
|
2.272% |
11.027% |
|
13.299% |
|
20.319% |
29.417% |
15.175% |
9.602% |
8.902% |
2.879% |
|
0.407% |
|
0.407% |
|
| 5. |
Booot 6.4 |
|
0.007% |
4.840% |
|
4.847% |
|
12.420% |
17.636% |
31.269% |
18.025% |
9.988% |
5.079% |
|
0.736% |
|
0.709% |
0.027% |
| 6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
|
0.200% |
1.456% |
|
1.656% |
|
5.266% |
9.124% |
19.030% |
34.283% |
21.965% |
6.217% |
|
2.459% |
|
2.392% |
0.067% |
| 7. |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
|
0.047% |
4.079% |
|
4.126% |
|
6.492% |
5.832% |
13.022% |
19.830% |
37.320% |
11.398% |
|
1.980% |
|
1.980% |
|
| 8. |
Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 |
|
|
0.440% |
|
0.440% |
|
0.773% |
1.805% |
4.038% |
6.027% |
11.373% |
46.167% |
|
29.377% |
|
29.230% |
0.147% |
| 9. |
RubiChess 1.7.3 |
|
0.001% |
0.108% |
|
0.109% |
|
0.207% |
0.545% |
1.188% |
2.078% |
4.948% |
26.440% |
|
64.485% |
|
59.259% |
5.226% |
| 10. |
Pedone 20200510 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.002% |
0.013% |
0.207% |
|
99.778% |
|
5.245% |
94.533% |
Top promotions
| Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
| 1. |
Fire 021819 |
rofChade 2.301 |
48.563% |
| 2. |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
17.219% |
| 3. |
Fire 021819 |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
9.829% |
| 4. |
rofChade 2.301 |
Fire 021819 |
6.867% |
| 5. |
Fire 021819 |
Booot 6.4 |
4.824% |
| 6. |
Fire 021819 |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
4.048% |
| 7. |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
Fire 021819 |
1.432% |
| 8. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Fire 021819 |
1.402% |
| 9. |
Fire 021819 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
1.124% |
| 10. |
rofChade 2.301 |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
0.893% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. |
Fire 021819 |
rofChade 2.301 |
55.430% |
| 2. |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
18.621% |
| 3. |
Fire 021819 |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
11.261% |
| 4. |
Booot 6.4 |
Fire 021819 |
4.828% |
| 5. |
Fire 021819 |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
4.067% |
| 6. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
rofChade 2.301 |
1.523% |
| 7. |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
rofChade 2.301 |
1.506% |
| 8. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
Fire 021819 |
1.277% |
| 9. |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
0.484% |
| 10. |
Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 |
Fire 021819 |
0.440% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
| Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
| 1 |
Fire 021819 |
9.0 |
11.16 |
0.86 |
1.52 |
70 |
16 |
8 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 2 |
rofChade 2.217/2.301 |
8.0 |
10.06 |
0.87 |
3.16 |
14 |
29 |
21 |
15 |
10 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
| 3 |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8/3.0.8.2 |
7.5 |
9.65 |
0.86 |
4.07 |
6 |
17 |
20 |
19 |
15 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
1 |
| 4 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
7.5 |
9.61 |
0.86 |
4.16 |
5 |
16 |
20 |
19 |
15 |
12 |
7 |
4 |
1 |
| 5 |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
7.5 |
9.46 |
0.89 |
4.49 |
3 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
14 |
11 |
5 |
2 |
| 6 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
7.0 |
8.96 |
0.89 |
5.70 |
1 |
5 |
9 |
13 |
17 |
20 |
17 |
11 |
7 |
| 7 |
Booot 6.4 |
6.5 |
8.48 |
0.87 |
6.80 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
7 |
12 |
16 |
21 |
21 |
16 |
| 8 |
Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 |
7.0 |
8.29 |
0.75 |
7.24 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
8 |
14 |
21 |
28 |
22 |
| 9 |
RubiChess 1.7.1/1.7.3 |
6.0 |
7.86 |
0.88 |
8.04 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
8 |
13 |
23 |
39 |
| 10 |
Pedone 20200420/20200510 |
5.0 |
6.45 |
0.75 |
9.80 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
11 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.40h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
| UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
| 2020-05-23 06:57 |
73 |
Fire 021819 |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
| 2020-05-23 08:21 |
74 |
RubiChess 1.7.3 |
rofChade 2.301 |
| 2020-05-23 09:45 |
75 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
| 2020-05-23 11:09 |
76 |
Pedone 20200510 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
| 2020-05-23 12:33 |
77 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
RubiChess 1.7.3 |
| 2020-05-23 13:58 |
78 |
rofChade 2.301 |
Fire 021819 |
| 2020-05-23 15:22 |
79 |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
| 2020-05-23 16:46 |
80 |
Booot 6.4 |
Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 |
| 2020-05-23 18:10 |
81 |
Booot 6.4 |
Pedone 20200510 |
| 2020-05-23 19:34 |
82 |
Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
| 2020-05-23 20:58 |
83 |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
rofChade 2.301 |
| 2020-05-23 22:23 |
84 |
Fire 021819 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
| 2020-05-23 23:47 |
85 |
RubiChess 1.7.3 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
| 2020-05-24 01:11 |
86 |
Pedone 20200510 |
RubiChess 1.7.3 |
| 2020-05-24 02:35 |
87 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
Fire 021819 |
| 2020-05-24 03:59 |
88 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
Fritz 17_20200130 |
| 2020-05-24 05:24 |
89 |
rofChade 2.301 |
Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 |
| 2020-05-24 06:48 |
90 |
ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 |
Booot 6.4 |