May 23 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 021819 85.445% 10.645% 96.090% 2.546% 1.097% 0.182% 0.084% 0.001%
2. rofChade 2.301 9.231% 44.351% 53.582% 29.219% 10.290% 4.260% 1.670% 0.695% 0.171% 0.113% 0.113%
3. Xiphos 0.6.1 2.384% 16.566% 18.950% 20.272% 29.126% 17.404% 8.445% 4.016% 1.197% 0.590% 0.589% 0.001%
4. Fritz 17_20200130 0.544% 15.990% 16.534% 21.761% 23.120% 18.400% 11.621% 6.179% 1.996% 0.389% 0.389%
5. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 2.177% 10.214% 12.391% 17.618% 22.237% 26.429% 10.517% 7.884% 2.552% 0.372% 0.372%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.217% 1.383% 1.600% 5.748% 8.384% 18.158% 42.833% 17.040% 4.245% 1.992% 1.936% 0.056%
7. Booot 6.4 0.401% 0.401% 1.823% 3.608% 9.735% 16.244% 41.538% 20.412% 6.239% 5.873% 0.366%
8. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 0.001% 0.348% 0.349% 0.789% 1.592% 3.950% 6.040% 16.733% 43.356% 27.191% 27.053% 0.138%
9. RubiChess 1.7.3 0.001% 0.102% 0.103% 0.224% 0.546% 1.482% 2.541% 5.875% 25.620% 63.609% 58.563% 5.046%
10. Pedone 20200510 0.005% 0.039% 0.451% 99.505% 5.112% 94.393%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 43.067%
2. Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130 15.747%
3. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 15.597%
4. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 9.121%
5. rofChade 2.301 Fire 021819 7.376%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Fire 021819 1.422%
7. Xiphos 0.6.1 Fire 021819 1.349%
8. Fire 021819 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 1.064%
9. rofChade 2.301 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 0.755%
10. rofChade 2.301 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.733%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 50.443%
2. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 16.946%
3. Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130 16.093%
4. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 10.543%
5. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.301 1.425%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 rofChade 2.301 1.245%
7. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fire 021819 1.215%
8. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.436%
9. Booot 6.4 Fire 021819 0.400%
10. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 Fire 021819 0.347%

Speculate Fire 021819 – ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 021819 95.879% 3.710% 99.589% 0.380% 0.025% 0.006%
2. rofChade 2.301 3.383% 54.650% 58.033% 29.302% 7.918% 2.842% 1.160% 0.499% 0.150% 0.096% 0.096%
3. Fritz 17_20200130 0.020% 17.445% 17.465% 27.080% 25.141% 14.315% 7.732% 5.915% 1.994% 0.358% 0.358%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.683% 18.355% 19.038% 24.744% 32.084% 13.993% 5.969% 2.662% 0.978% 0.532% 0.530% 0.002%
5. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.035% 1.377% 1.412% 7.729% 11.784% 27.391% 33.351% 12.600% 3.795% 1.938% 1.869% 0.069%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 3.444% 3.444% 7.356% 14.385% 20.636% 27.463% 17.139% 7.997% 1.580% 1.580%
7. Booot 6.4 0.454% 0.454% 2.265% 5.702% 14.221% 13.574% 40.104% 17.682% 5.998% 5.629% 0.369%
8. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 0.398% 0.398% 0.850% 2.019% 5.125% 8.361% 14.664% 42.494% 26.089% 25.936% 0.153%
9. RubiChess 1.7.3 0.167% 0.167% 0.294% 0.942% 1.471% 2.380% 6.364% 24.469% 63.913% 58.759% 5.154%
10. Pedone 20200510 0.010% 0.053% 0.441% 99.496% 5.243% 94.253%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 54.473%
2. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 18.189%
3. Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130 17.430%
4. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 3.444%
5. rofChade 2.301 Fire 021819 3.164%
6. Fire 021819 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 1.324%
7. Xiphos 0.6.1 Fire 021819 0.501%
8. Fire 021819 Booot 6.4 0.454%
9. Fire 021819 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 0.398%
10. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.301 0.174%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 57.637%
2. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 18.690%
3. Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130 17.443%
4. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 3.444%
5. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fire 021819 1.356%
6. Booot 6.4 Fire 021819 0.454%
7. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 Fire 021819 0.398%
8. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.301 0.336%
9. Fire 021819 RubiChess 1.7.3 0.167%
10. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 rofChade 2.301 0.049%

Speculate Fire 021819 – ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 021819 86.492% 10.809% 97.301% 1.897% 0.634% 0.125% 0.043%
2. rofChade 2.301 10.011% 45.023% 55.034% 28.365% 9.627% 4.285% 1.712% 0.695% 0.186% 0.096% 0.096%
3. Xiphos 0.6.1 2.493% 16.873% 19.366% 20.387% 28.975% 16.718% 8.864% 3.982% 1.187% 0.521% 0.521%
4. Fritz 17_20200130 0.507% 15.855% 16.362% 22.056% 22.864% 18.133% 12.027% 6.175% 2.037% 0.346% 0.346%
5. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 0.278% 9.140% 9.418% 18.838% 24.827% 29.676% 8.166% 7.104% 1.770% 0.201% 0.201%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.218% 1.388% 1.606% 5.653% 7.869% 16.474% 44.496% 17.649% 4.298% 1.955% 1.909% 0.046%
7. Booot 6.4 0.402% 0.402% 1.804% 3.123% 9.201% 16.331% 41.564% 21.054% 6.521% 6.125% 0.396%
8. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 0.001% 0.393% 0.394% 0.790% 1.666% 3.946% 5.758% 16.860% 43.565% 27.021% 26.875% 0.146%
9. RubiChess 1.7.3 0.117% 0.117% 0.210% 0.415% 1.442% 2.598% 5.918% 25.461% 63.839% 58.741% 5.098%
10. Pedone 20200510 0.005% 0.053% 0.442% 99.500% 5.186% 94.314%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 44.146%
2. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 15.929%
3. Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130 15.696%
4. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 8.738%
5. rofChade 2.301 Fire 021819 8.496%
6. Xiphos 0.6.1 Fire 021819 1.595%
7. Fire 021819 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 1.072%
8. rofChade 2.301 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.862%
9. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.301 0.720%
10. Fire 021819 Booot 6.4 0.401%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 52.642%
2. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 17.524%
3. Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130 16.041%
4. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 8.940%
5. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.301 1.582%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fire 021819 1.243%
7. Booot 6.4 Fire 021819 0.401%
8. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 Fire 021819 0.393%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 rofChade 2.301 0.333%
10. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 rofChade 2.301 0.285%

Speculate Fire 021819 – ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 021819 55.453% 20.899% 76.352% 13.536% 7.964% 1.404% 0.729% 0.015%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 24.737% 33.724% 58.461% 25.080% 9.983% 4.019% 1.424% 0.729% 0.297% 0.007% 0.007%
3. rofChade 2.301 13.051% 22.931% 35.982% 33.642% 20.926% 6.316% 2.069% 0.778% 0.188% 0.099% 0.099%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 4.262% 9.762% 14.024% 14.353% 23.959% 31.507% 9.715% 4.617% 1.257% 0.568% 0.568%
5. Fritz 17_20200130 2.009% 11.009% 13.018% 8.991% 25.137% 29.424% 14.093% 6.804% 2.130% 0.403% 0.403%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.483% 1.197% 1.680% 2.581% 8.389% 16.502% 44.985% 19.518% 4.431% 1.914% 1.861% 0.053%
7. Booot 6.4 0.004% 0.233% 0.237% 1.047% 2.331% 7.719% 18.298% 42.465% 21.402% 6.501% 6.150% 0.351%
8. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 0.001% 0.219% 0.220% 0.636% 0.841% 1.800% 6.063% 19.156% 44.099% 27.185% 27.045% 0.140%
9. RubiChess 1.7.3 0.026% 0.026% 0.134% 0.470% 1.309% 2.619% 5.865% 25.752% 63.825% 58.664% 5.161%
10. Pedone 20200510 0.005% 0.053% 0.444% 99.498% 5.203% 94.295%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 23.251%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Fire 021819 15.516%
3. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 15.475%
4. Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130 9.683%
5. rofChade 2.301 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 7.284%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 rofChade 2.301 6.140%
7. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 6.105%
8. rofChade 2.301 Fire 021819 3.657%
9. Xiphos 0.6.1 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 2.374%
10. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Xiphos 0.6.1 2.168%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 38.767%
2. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 19.132%
3. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 rofChade 2.301 13.424%
4. Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130 10.661%
5. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 6.736%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Xiphos 0.6.1 4.542%
7. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.301 2.282%
8. Fritz 17_20200130 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 1.276%
9. Fritz 17_20200130 rofChade 2.301 0.595%
10. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fire 021819 0.590%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 Fire 021819 9.0 11.16 0.85 1.50 71 16 7 4 1 0 0 0 0
2 rofChade 2.217/2.301 8.0 10.07 0.87 3.11 15 30 21 15 9 5 3 1 0
3 ScorpioNN 3.0.8/3.0.8.2 7.5 9.66 0.86 4.03 6 18 21 19 14 10 7 4 1
4 Xiphos 0.6.1 7.5 9.61 0.86 4.14 5 17 20 19 15 11 8 4 2
5 Fritz 17_20200130 8.0 9.38 0.76 4.57 2 13 16 17 20 16 11 4 1
6 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 7.0 8.96 0.89 5.71 1 5 9 13 17 18 17 12 8
7 Booot 6.4 7.0 8.55 0.74 6.76 0 0 3 7 12 19 23 21 14
8 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 7.0 8.30 0.75 7.28 0 0 2 4 8 13 19 29 23
9 RubiChess 1.7.1/1.7.3 6.0 7.87 0.88 8.07 0 0 1 2 4 7 12 22 40
10 Pedone 20200420/20200510 5.0 6.45 0.75 9.82 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 11

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.40h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-05-23 08:05 74 RubiChess 1.7.3 rofChade 2.301
2020-05-23 09:29 75 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-05-23 10:53 76 Pedone 20200510 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-05-23 12:17 77 Xiphos 0.6.1 RubiChess 1.7.3
2020-05-23 13:41 78 rofChade 2.301 Fire 021819
2020-05-23 15:05 79 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-05-23 16:29 80 Booot 6.4 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5
2020-05-23 17:53 81 Booot 6.4 Pedone 20200510
2020-05-23 19:17 82 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2
2020-05-23 20:41 83 Fritz 17_20200130 rofChade 2.301
2020-05-23 22:05 84 Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-05-23 23:29 85 RubiChess 1.7.3 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-05-24 00:53 86 Pedone 20200510 RubiChess 1.7.3
2020-05-24 02:17 87 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fire 021819
2020-05-24 03:41 88 Xiphos 0.6.1 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-05-24 05:05 89 rofChade 2.301 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5
2020-05-24 06:29 90 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Booot 6.4
Posted inBayesElo