May 23 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 021819 72.622% 23.133% 95.755% 2.594% 1.224% 0.400% 0.027%
2. rofChade 2.301 25.821% 62.052% 87.873% 9.157% 2.244% 0.521% 0.144% 0.055% 0.006%
3. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.768% 2.115% 2.883% 34.649% 29.273% 15.386% 13.705% 3.928% 0.171% 0.005% 0.005%
4. Fritz 17_20200130 0.452% 7.977% 8.429% 15.702% 29.885% 15.836% 19.161% 8.664% 2.293% 0.030% 0.030%
5. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 0.192% 2.616% 2.808% 20.930% 17.633% 34.199% 12.341% 9.955% 2.119% 0.015% 0.015%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.145% 1.971% 2.116% 14.823% 16.803% 27.397% 36.791% 2.021% 0.048% 0.001% 0.001%
7. Booot 6.4 0.046% 0.046% 1.721% 1.966% 4.129% 13.239% 53.256% 24.824% 0.819% 0.797% 0.022%
8. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 0.090% 0.090% 0.424% 0.972% 2.132% 4.569% 21.409% 62.639% 7.765% 7.765%
9. RubiChess 1.7.3 0.023% 0.712% 7.880% 91.385% 89.333% 2.052%
10. Pedone 20200510 0.020% 99.980% 2.054% 97.926%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 61.287%
2. rofChade 2.301 Fire 021819 22.440%
3. Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130 7.850%
4. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 2.351%
5. rofChade 2.301 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 1.573%
6. rofChade 2.301 Xiphos 0.6.1 1.477%
7. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.612%
8. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.301 0.580%
9. Fire 021819 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.386%
10. Fritz 17_20200130 Fire 021819 0.271%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 83.727%
2. Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130 8.121%
3. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 2.511%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.301 2.057%
5. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 rofChade 2.301 1.574%
6. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.750%
7. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fire 021819 0.510%
8. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 rofChade 2.301 0.269%
9. Fritz 17_20200130 rofChade 2.301 0.246%
10. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 Fire 021819 0.090%

Speculate rofChade 2.301 – Fire 021819 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. rofChade 2.301 94.036% 4.987% 99.023% 0.840% 0.137%
2. Fire 021819 4.715% 77.663% 82.378% 10.033% 6.295% 1.166% 0.128%
3. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.010% 7.643% 7.653% 31.243% 28.633% 15.288% 13.083% 3.898% 0.200% 0.002% 0.002%
4. Fritz 17_20200130 1.179% 1.441% 2.620% 20.204% 30.361% 16.162% 19.392% 8.879% 2.351% 0.031% 0.031%
5. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 0.050% 1.555% 1.605% 22.862% 16.468% 34.095% 12.769% 10.066% 2.114% 0.021% 0.021%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.010% 6.701% 6.711% 12.846% 15.125% 26.944% 36.344% 1.973% 0.057%
7. Booot 6.4 0.005% 0.005% 1.623% 1.972% 4.115% 13.353% 53.449% 24.619% 0.864% 0.854% 0.010%
8. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 0.005% 0.005% 0.349% 1.009% 2.230% 4.914% 21.057% 62.616% 7.820% 7.820%
9. RubiChess 1.7.3 0.017% 0.678% 8.031% 91.274% 89.155% 2.119%
10. Pedone 20200510 0.012% 99.988% 2.117% 97.871%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. rofChade 2.301 Fire 021819 77.579%
2. rofChade 2.301 Xiphos 0.6.1 7.602%
3. rofChade 2.301 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 6.701%
4. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 3.872%
5. rofChade 2.301 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 1.497%
6. Fritz 17_20200130 rofChade 2.301 1.060%
7. Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130 0.774%
8. rofChade 2.301 Fritz 17_20200130 0.656%
9. Fritz 17_20200130 Fire 021819 0.082%
10. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 0.053%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 81.451%
2. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.301 7.610%
3. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 rofChade 2.301 6.702%
4. Fritz 17_20200130 rofChade 2.301 1.716%
5. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 rofChade 2.301 1.543%
6. Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130 0.856%
7. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 0.054%
8. Fritz 17_20200130 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.035%
9. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.007%
10. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fritz 17_20200130 0.007%

Speculate rofChade 2.301 – Fire 021819 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 021819 79.597% 17.585% 97.182% 1.871% 0.599% 0.332% 0.016%
2. rofChade 2.301 18.602% 69.612% 88.214% 9.149% 2.157% 0.389% 0.084% 0.007%
3. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.985% 1.105% 2.090% 35.225% 29.631% 15.458% 13.565% 3.840% 0.189% 0.002% 0.002%
4. Fritz 17_20200130 0.373% 8.168% 8.541% 15.232% 30.101% 16.098% 19.052% 8.652% 2.285% 0.039% 0.039%
5. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 0.236% 2.265% 2.501% 20.954% 17.699% 33.978% 12.719% 9.969% 2.167% 0.013% 0.013%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.207% 1.162% 1.369% 15.544% 16.796% 27.532% 36.667% 2.034% 0.058%
7. Booot 6.4 0.036% 0.036% 1.626% 1.973% 4.056% 13.312% 53.192% 24.993% 0.812% 0.798% 0.014%
8. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 0.067% 0.067% 0.399% 1.044% 2.157% 4.567% 21.640% 62.449% 7.677% 7.677%
9. RubiChess 1.7.3 0.018% 0.666% 7.844% 91.472% 89.246% 2.226%
10. Pedone 20200510 0.015% 99.985% 2.225% 97.760%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 68.795%
2. rofChade 2.301 Fire 021819 16.755%
3. Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130 8.076%
4. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 2.163%
5. rofChade 2.301 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 1.002%
6. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.301 0.781%
7. rofChade 2.301 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.759%
8. Fritz 17_20200130 Fire 021819 0.343%
9. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.318%
10. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Fire 021819 0.199%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 85.550%
2. Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130 8.419%
3. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 2.362%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.301 1.540%
5. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 rofChade 2.301 1.002%
6. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.449%
7. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fire 021819 0.299%
8. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 rofChade 2.301 0.100%
9. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 Fire 021819 0.067%
10. Fritz 17_20200130 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.062%

Speculate rofChade 2.301 – Fire 021819 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 021819 99.783% 0.183% 99.966% 0.034%
2. rofChade 2.301 0.010% 71.458% 71.468% 18.945% 5.659% 2.391% 0.894% 0.568% 0.075%
3. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.119% 3.228% 3.347% 34.179% 29.227% 15.232% 13.954% 3.869% 0.191% 0.001% 0.001%
4. Fritz 17_20200130 0.022% 14.874% 14.896% 12.689% 28.673% 14.677% 18.397% 8.366% 2.264% 0.038% 0.038%
5. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 0.002% 6.591% 6.593% 20.374% 15.930% 33.770% 11.581% 9.650% 2.079% 0.023% 0.023%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.064% 2.926% 2.990% 11.638% 17.860% 27.930% 37.216% 2.281% 0.082% 0.003% 0.003%
7. Booot 6.4 0.270% 0.270% 1.608% 1.856% 3.883% 13.196% 53.256% 25.049% 0.882% 0.868% 0.014%
8. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 0.470% 0.470% 0.533% 0.795% 2.117% 4.738% 21.309% 62.277% 7.761% 7.761%
9. RubiChess 1.7.3 0.024% 0.701% 7.963% 91.312% 89.206% 2.106%
10. Pedone 20200510 0.020% 99.980% 2.100% 97.880%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 71.456%
2. Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130 14.872%
3. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 6.574%
4. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 3.227%
5. Fire 021819 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 2.914%
6. Fire 021819 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 0.470%
7. Fire 021819 Booot 6.4 0.270%
8. Xiphos 0.6.1 Fire 021819 0.095%
9. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fire 021819 0.058%
10. Fritz 17_20200130 Fire 021819 0.022%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 71.462%
2. Fire 021819 Fritz 17_20200130 14.894%
3. Fire 021819 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 6.576%
4. Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1 3.322%
5. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fire 021819 2.972%
6. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 Fire 021819 0.470%
7. Booot 6.4 Fire 021819 0.270%
8. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.013%
9. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.009%
10. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 0.004%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 Fire 021819 9.5 11.07 0.74 1.56 64 24 7 3 2 0 0 0 0
2 rofChade 2.217/2.301 9.0 10.58 0.75 2.20 32 38 16 8 4 2 0 0 0
3 ScorpioNN 3.0.8/3.0.8.2 8.0 9.72 0.74 4.15 2 14 26 20 15 11 8 3 0
4 Xiphos 0.6.1 8.5 9.50 0.61 4.59 1 7 17 23 22 19 10 1 0
5 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 8.5 9.50 0.61 4.61 0 6 16 23 27 18 9 1 0
6 Fritz 17_20200130 8.0 9.38 0.76 4.88 1 9 14 15 17 22 16 4 0
7 Booot 6.4 7.0 8.56 0.74 6.89 0 0 2 5 8 17 31 29 8
8 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 7.0 8.29 0.75 7.38 0 0 1 3 5 11 24 41 15
9 RubiChess 1.7.1/1.7.3 6.5 7.47 0.61 8.77 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 21 71
10 Pedone 20200420/20200510 5.0 5.94 0.60 9.95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.40h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-05-23 14:58 79 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-05-23 16:22 80 Booot 6.4 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5
2020-05-23 17:46 81 Booot 6.4 Pedone 20200510
2020-05-23 19:10 82 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2
2020-05-23 20:34 83 Fritz 17_20200130 rofChade 2.301
2020-05-23 21:58 84 Fire 021819 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-05-23 23:22 85 RubiChess 1.7.3 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-05-24 00:46 86 Pedone 20200510 RubiChess 1.7.3
2020-05-24 02:10 87 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fire 021819
2020-05-24 03:33 88 Xiphos 0.6.1 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-05-24 04:57 89 rofChade 2.301 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5
2020-05-24 06:21 90 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Booot 6.4
Posted inBayesElo