May 23 2020
Off

For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. rofChade 2.301 73.912% 26.088% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 25.993% 70.859% 96.852% 2.325% 0.685% 0.138%
3. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.095% 1.872% 1.967% 58.631% 18.800% 5.513% 9.695% 5.296% 0.098%
4. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 12.319% 54.277% 26.206% 1.418% 5.370% 0.410%
5. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 1.181% 1.181% 20.242% 17.355% 47.841% 11.309% 1.921% 0.150% 0.001% 0.001%
6. Booot 6.4 1.904% 6.536% 16.813% 60.361% 13.415% 0.971%
7. Fritz 17_20200130 4.579% 2.347% 3.474% 16.047% 66.141% 7.379% 0.033% 0.033%
8. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 0.015% 1.170% 7.659% 87.003% 4.153% 4.153%
9. RubiChess 1.7.3 0.198% 3.989% 95.813% 95.813%
10. Pedone 20200510 100.000% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. rofChade 2.301 Fire 021819 70.859%
2. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 25.993%
3. rofChade 2.301 Xiphos 0.6.1 1.872%
4. rofChade 2.301 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 1.181%
5. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.301 0.095%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 96.852%
2. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.301 1.967%
3. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 rofChade 2.301 1.181%

Speculate Fire 021819 – Xiphos 0.6.1 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 021819 86.939% 13.061% 100.000%
2. rofChade 2.301 13.061% 86.939% 100.000%
3. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 54.929% 15.047% 15.199% 12.040% 2.565% 0.213% 0.007% 0.007%
4. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 24.728% 60.794% 7.200% 2.535% 4.440% 0.303%
5. Booot 6.4 5.103% 13.184% 46.736% 21.853% 12.240% 0.884%
6. Xiphos 0.6.1 10.723% 8.098% 11.904% 57.180% 11.483% 0.608% 0.004% 0.004%
7. Fritz 17_20200130 4.517% 2.877% 18.893% 0.691% 65.590% 7.391% 0.041% 0.041%
8. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 0.068% 5.701% 3.429% 86.740% 4.062% 4.062%
9. RubiChess 1.7.3 0.253% 3.861% 95.886% 95.886%
10. Pedone 20200510 100.000% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 86.939%
2. rofChade 2.301 Fire 021819 13.061%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 100.000%

Speculate Fire 021819 – Xiphos 0.6.1 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. rofChade 2.301 83.790% 16.210% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 16.210% 82.442% 98.652% 1.348%
3. Xiphos 0.6.1 66.503% 22.500% 4.867% 1.546% 4.582% 0.002%
4. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 11.393% 55.639% 25.836% 1.295% 5.444% 0.393%
5. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 1.348% 1.348% 14.836% 14.122% 56.849% 10.733% 1.993% 0.119%
6. Booot 6.4 1.439% 5.417% 11.502% 67.398% 13.259% 0.985%
7. Fritz 17_20200130 4.481% 2.322% 0.941% 18.712% 66.263% 7.244% 0.037% 0.037%
8. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 0.005% 0.316% 8.247% 87.121% 4.311% 4.311%
9. RubiChess 1.7.3 0.212% 4.136% 95.652% 95.652%
10. Pedone 20200510 100.000% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. rofChade 2.301 Fire 021819 82.442%
2. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 16.210%
3. rofChade 2.301 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 1.348%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 98.652%
2. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 rofChade 2.301 1.348%

Speculate Fire 021819 – Xiphos 0.6.1 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. rofChade 2.301 90.593% 9.407% 100.000%
2. Fire 021819 8.529% 66.309% 74.838% 15.078% 8.491% 1.593%
3. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.878% 22.440% 23.318% 69.260% 3.474% 2.479% 1.469%
4. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 1.844% 1.844% 9.429% 50.832% 20.863% 16.039% 0.925% 0.068%
5. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 1.260% 29.135% 62.202% 1.255% 5.750% 0.398%
6. Booot 6.4 0.428% 5.555% 12.247% 62.235% 18.668% 0.867%
7. Fritz 17_20200130 4.545% 2.513% 0.612% 18.626% 66.449% 7.225% 0.030% 0.030%
8. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 0.004% 0.376% 8.008% 87.445% 4.167% 4.167%
9. RubiChess 1.7.3 0.200% 3.997% 95.803% 95.803%
10. Pedone 20200510 100.000% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. rofChade 2.301 Fire 021819 66.309%
2. rofChade 2.301 Xiphos 0.6.1 22.440%
3. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 8.529%
4. rofChade 2.301 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 1.844%
5. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.301 0.878%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 74.838%
2. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.301 23.318%
3. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 rofChade 2.301 1.844%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 rofChade 2.217/2.301 10.5 11.11 0.42 1.47 53 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Fire 021819 10.0 11.07 0.60 1.63 47 45 6 2 0 0 0 0 0
3 ScorpioNN 3.0.8/3.0.8.2 9.0 9.59 0.42 4.26 0 0 34 29 16 18 3 0 0
4 Xiphos 0.6.1 8.5 9.52 0.60 4.41 0 5 28 25 20 12 9 2 0
5 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 8.5 9.50 0.61 4.40 0 3 27 22 28 11 6 1 0
6 Fritz 17_20200130 8.5 8.91 0.42 6.14 0 0 2 10 18 25 35 11 0
7 Booot 6.4 8.5 8.91 0.42 6.07 0 0 3 12 16 25 33 11 0
8 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 8.0 8.39 0.42 7.69 0 0 0 0 1 10 15 67 7
9 RubiChess 1.7.1/1.7.3 6.5 7.47 0.62 8.93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 93
10 Pedone 20200420/20200510 5.0 5.52 0.43 10.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.40h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-05-23 23:33 85 RubiChess 1.7.3 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-05-24 00:57 86 Pedone 20200510 RubiChess 1.7.3
2020-05-24 02:21 87 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fire 021819
2020-05-24 03:45 88 Xiphos 0.6.1 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-05-24 05:09 89 rofChade 2.301 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5
2020-05-24 06:33 90 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Booot 6.4
Posted inBayesElo