May 24 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 021819 86.737% 13.263% 100.000%
2. rofChade 2.301 13.263% 86.737% 100.000%
3. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 55.867% 19.258% 16.312% 7.350% 1.168% 0.045%
4. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 21.317% 64.697% 6.716% 2.202% 4.749% 0.319%
5. Booot 6.4 5.563% 8.172% 51.156% 22.089% 12.101% 0.919%
6. Xiphos 0.6.1 11.893% 5.951% 6.889% 62.608% 12.115% 0.544%
7. Fritz 17_20200130 5.360% 1.922% 18.927% 66.571% 7.220%
8. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 5.751% 3.296% 90.953%
9. RubiChess 1.7.3 100.000% 100.000%
10. Pedone 20200510 100.000% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 86.737%
2. rofChade 2.301 Fire 021819 13.263%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 100.000%

Speculate Defenchess 2.3_dev2 – Fire 021819 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 021819 82.221% 17.779% 100.000%
2. rofChade 2.301 17.779% 82.221% 100.000%
3. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 100.000%
4. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 74.804% 18.088% 1.599% 5.139% 0.370%
5. Booot 6.4 7.108% 57.815% 21.898% 12.253% 0.926%
6. Xiphos 0.6.1 12.074% 3.905% 70.800% 12.667% 0.554%
7. Fritz 17_20200130 6.014% 20.192% 66.645% 7.149%
8. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 5.703% 3.296% 91.001%
9. RubiChess 1.7.3 100.000% 100.000%
10. Pedone 20200510 100.000% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 82.221%
2. rofChade 2.301 Fire 021819 17.779%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 100.000%

Speculate Defenchess 2.3_dev2 – Fire 021819 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 021819 85.342% 14.658% 100.000%
2. rofChade 2.301 14.658% 85.342% 100.000%
3. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 57.751% 24.720% 17.529%
4. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 16.821% 70.019% 5.903% 1.585% 5.283% 0.389%
5. Booot 6.4 6.096% 1.161% 57.751% 21.970% 12.148% 0.874%
6. Xiphos 0.6.1 13.429% 2.783% 70.741% 12.493% 0.554%
7. Fritz 17_20200130 5.903% 1.317% 18.817% 66.730% 7.233%
8. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 5.704% 3.346% 90.950%
9. RubiChess 1.7.3 100.000% 100.000%
10. Pedone 20200510 100.000% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 85.342%
2. rofChade 2.301 Fire 021819 14.658%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 100.000%

Speculate Defenchess 2.3_dev2 – Fire 021819 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 021819 100.000% 100.000%
2. rofChade 2.301 100.000% 100.000%
3. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 74.447% 18.354% 6.723% 0.476%
4. Booot 6.4 7.199% 57.711% 22.092% 12.109% 0.889%
5. Xiphos 0.6.1 12.383% 22.057% 57.711% 7.265% 0.584%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 24.097% 65.477% 10.066% 0.360%
7. Fritz 17_20200130 5.971% 1.878% 18.192% 66.712% 7.247%
8. Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 5.708% 3.372% 90.920%
9. RubiChess 1.7.3 100.000% 100.000%
10. Pedone 20200510 100.000% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 100.000%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 021819 rofChade 2.301 100.000%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 Fire 021819 11.0 11.51 0.43 1.22 78 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 rofChade 2.217/2.301 10.5 11.10 0.42 1.78 22 78 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 ScorpioNN 3.0.8/3.0.8.2 9.0 9.59 0.42 3.92 0 0 53 20 10 17 0 0 0
4 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 9.0 9.49 0.43 4.08 0 0 34 31 29 7 0 0 0
5 Xiphos 0.6.1 8.5 9.08 0.42 5.46 0 0 5 22 30 15 21 6 0
6 Fritz 17_20200130 8.5 8.92 0.42 6.01 0 0 2 14 21 18 34 11 0
7 Booot 6.4 8.5 8.91 0.42 5.92 0 0 7 14 9 31 29 10 0
8 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5 8.0 8.40 0.42 7.61 0 0 0 0 0 12 16 72 0
9 RubiChess 1.7.1/1.7.3 7.5 7.50 0.00 9.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
10 Pedone 20200420/20200510 5.5 5.50 0.00 10.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.41h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-05-24 04:31 88 Xiphos 0.6.1 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-05-24 05:56 89 rofChade 2.301 Arasan 22.0_c5b58e5
2020-05-24 07:20 90 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.2 Booot 6.4
Posted inBayesElo