Jul 07 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3-4. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 40.194% 29.232% 69.426% 30.574% 19.528% 11.046%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 33.588% 29.577% 63.165% 36.835% 22.048% 14.787%
3. Stoofvlees II a14 14.192% 21.323% 35.515% 64.485% 28.672% 35.813%
4. Stockfish 202007032109 12.026% 19.868% 31.894% 68.106% 29.752% 38.354%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 19.917%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 17.926%
3. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stoofvlees II a14 10.167%
4. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109 10.110%
5. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stoofvlees II a14 8.365%
6. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109 7.297%
7. Stoofvlees II a14 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 6.239%
8. Stoofvlees II a14 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 5.492%
9. Stockfish 202007032109 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 5.067%
10. Stockfish 202007032109 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 4.168%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 37.843%
2. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stoofvlees II a14 16.406%
3. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109 15.177%
4. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stoofvlees II a14 13.857%
5. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109 11.465%
6. Stockfish 202007032109 Stoofvlees II a14 5.252%

Speculate LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh – Stoofvlees II a14 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3-4. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 52.832% 29.054% 81.886% 18.114% 13.043% 5.071%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 30.027% 33.721% 63.748% 36.252% 22.745% 13.507%
3. Stockfish 202007032109 10.380% 20.958% 31.338% 68.662% 33.873% 34.789%
4. Stoofvlees II a14 6.761% 16.267% 23.028% 76.972% 30.339% 46.633%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 27.896%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 20.145%
3. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109 14.091%
4. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stoofvlees II a14 10.845%
5. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109 5.868%
6. Stockfish 202007032109 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 5.553%
7. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stoofvlees II a14 4.014%
8. Stockfish 202007032109 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 3.419%
9. Stoofvlees II a14 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 3.356%
10. Stoofvlees II a14 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 2.406%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 48.041%
2. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109 19.644%
3. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stoofvlees II a14 14.201%
4. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109 9.287%
5. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stoofvlees II a14 6.420%
6. Stockfish 202007032109 Stoofvlees II a14 2.407%

Speculate LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh – Stoofvlees II a14 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3-4. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 39.045% 29.546% 68.591% 31.409% 20.209% 11.200%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 34.580% 29.044% 63.624% 36.376% 21.599% 14.777%
3. Stoofvlees II a14 14.312% 21.652% 35.964% 64.036% 29.345% 34.691%
4. Stockfish 202007032109 12.063% 19.758% 31.821% 68.179% 28.847% 39.332%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 19.031%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 18.299%
3. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stoofvlees II a14 10.239%
4. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109 9.775%
5. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stoofvlees II a14 8.680%
6. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109 7.601%
7. Stoofvlees II a14 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 6.334%
8. Stoofvlees II a14 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 5.596%
9. Stockfish 202007032109 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 4.913%
10. Stockfish 202007032109 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 4.417%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 37.330%
2. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stoofvlees II a14 16.573%
3. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109 14.688%
4. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stoofvlees II a14 14.276%
5. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109 12.018%
6. Stockfish 202007032109 Stoofvlees II a14 5.115%

Speculate LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh – Stoofvlees II a14 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3-4. 3. 4.
1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 34.993% 27.028% 62.021% 37.979% 22.090% 15.889%
2. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 25.974% 27.493% 53.467% 46.533% 26.541% 19.992%
3. Stoofvlees II a14 26.385% 26.808% 53.193% 46.807% 25.078% 21.729%
4. Stockfish 202007032109 12.648% 18.671% 31.319% 68.681% 26.291% 42.390%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stoofvlees II a14 14.086%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 13.134%
3. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 11.591%
4. Stoofvlees II a14 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 10.911%
5. Stoofvlees II a14 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 10.776%
6. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stoofvlees II a14 8.183%
7. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109 7.773%
8. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109 6.200%
9. Stoofvlees II a14 Stockfish 202007032109 4.698%
10. Stockfish 202007032109 Stoofvlees II a14 4.539%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stoofvlees II a14 24.997%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 24.725%
3. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stoofvlees II a14 18.959%
4. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109 12.299%
5. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109 9.783%
6. Stockfish 202007032109 Stoofvlees II a14 9.237%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3
1 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010/v0.25.1-sv-t60-3010/v0.25.1-svjio-t60-3972-mlh/v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 7.5 21.88 2.36 2.13 37 28 21
2 AllieStein v0.6-n14.3beta/v0.7_dev-net_14.3/v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 7.5 21.35 2.39 2.35 29 27 24
3 Stockfish 202004181536/202003092246/Latest/202005232210/202006170741/202007032109 6.0 20.88 2.33 2.55 22 26 28
4 Stoofvlees II a14 7.0 19.89 2.37 2.97 13 19 27

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.65h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-07-07 15:00 30 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-07 16:39 31 Stoofvlees II a14 Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-07 18:18 32 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh
2020-07-07 19:57 33 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-07-07 21:36 34 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-07 23:15 35 Stoofvlees II a14 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh
2020-07-08 00:54 36 Stockfish 202007032109 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0
2020-07-08 02:33 37 Stockfish 202007032109 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-07-08 04:12 38 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0
2020-07-08 05:50 39 Stoofvlees II a14 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0
2020-07-08 07:29 40 Stockfish 202007032109 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh
2020-07-08 09:08 41 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stoofvlees II a14
2020-07-08 10:47 42 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-08 12:26 43 Stoofvlees II a14 Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-08 14:05 44 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh
2020-07-08 15:44 45 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-07-08 17:23 46 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-08 19:02 47 Stoofvlees II a14 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh
2020-07-08 20:41 48 Stockfish 202007032109 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0
2020-07-08 22:20 49 Stockfish 202007032109 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-07-08 23:59 50 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0
2020-07-09 01:37 51 Stoofvlees II a14 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0
2020-07-09 03:16 52 Stockfish 202007032109 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh
2020-07-09 04:55 53 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stoofvlees II a14
2020-07-09 06:34 54 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-09 08:13 55 Stoofvlees II a14 Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-09 09:52 56 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh
2020-07-09 11:31 57 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-07-09 13:10 58 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-09 14:49 59 Stoofvlees II a14 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh
2020-07-09 16:28 60 Stockfish 202007032109 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0
2020-07-09 18:07 61 Stockfish 202007032109 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-07-09 19:46 62 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0
2020-07-09 21:25 63 Stoofvlees II a14 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0
2020-07-09 23:03 64 Stockfish 202007032109 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh
2020-07-10 00:42 65 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stoofvlees II a14
2020-07-10 02:21 66 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-10 04:00 67 Stoofvlees II a14 Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-10 05:39 68 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh
2020-07-10 07:18 69 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-07-10 08:57 70 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-10 10:36 71 Stoofvlees II a14 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh
2020-07-10 12:15 72 Stockfish 202007032109 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0
2020-07-10 13:54 73 Stockfish 202007032109 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-07-10 15:33 74 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0
2020-07-10 17:12 75 Stoofvlees II a14 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0
2020-07-10 18:51 76 Stockfish 202007032109 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh
2020-07-10 20:29 77 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stoofvlees II a14
2020-07-10 22:08 78 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-10 23:47 79 Stoofvlees II a14 Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-11 01:26 80 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh
2020-07-11 03:05 81 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-07-11 04:44 82 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-11 06:23 83 Stoofvlees II a14 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh
2020-07-11 08:02 84 Stockfish 202007032109 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0
Posted inBayesElo