Jul 13 2020
Off

For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Including Top4 games

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations except as biased random().
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4-5. 4. 5.
1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 40.457% 43.084% 83.541% 16.443% 0.016% 0.016%
2. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 40.374% 19.223% 59.597% 28.407% 11.996% 9.895% 2.101%
3. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 19.164% 37.618% 56.782% 43.096% 0.122% 0.122%
4. Stockfish 202007032109 0.005% 0.075% 0.080% 11.552% 88.368% 81.497% 6.871%
5. Stoofvlees II a14 0.502% 99.498% 8.470% 91.028%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 28.232%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 25.478%
3. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 14.915%
4. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 14.849%
5. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 12.139%
6. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 4.307%
7. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109 0.064%
8. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109 0.008%
9. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 Stockfish 202007032109 0.003%
10. Stockfish 202007032109 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 0.003%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 43.147%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 40.327%
3. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 16.446%
4. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109 0.067%
5. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109 0.009%
6. Stockfish 202007032109 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 0.004%

Speculate AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 – StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4-5. 4. 5.
1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 66.252% 29.743% 95.995% 4.005%
2. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 12.135% 47.680% 59.815% 40.085% 0.100% 0.099% 0.001%
3. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 21.613% 22.492% 44.105% 36.864% 19.031% 14.816% 4.215%
4. Stockfish 202007032109 0.085% 0.085% 18.235% 81.680% 75.186% 6.494%
5. Stoofvlees II a14 0.811% 99.189% 9.899% 89.290%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 45.152%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 21.017%
3. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 19.085%
4. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 10.658%
5. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 2.528%
6. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 1.475%
7. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109 0.083%
8. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109 0.002%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 55.810%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 40.102%
3. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 4.003%
4. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109 0.083%
5. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109 0.002%

Speculate AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 – StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4-5. 4. 5.
1. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 40.476% 19.336% 59.812% 28.817% 11.371% 9.508% 1.863%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 39.174% 44.597% 83.771% 16.215% 0.014% 0.014%
3. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 20.347% 35.994% 56.341% 43.543% 0.116% 0.116%
4. Stockfish 202007032109 0.003% 0.073% 0.076% 10.995% 88.929% 82.061% 6.868%
5. Stoofvlees II a14 0.430% 99.570% 8.301% 91.269%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 28.616%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 24.135%
3. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 15.979%
4. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 14.983%
5. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 11.859%
6. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 4.352%
7. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109 0.056%
8. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109 0.016%
9. Stockfish 202007032109 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 0.002%
10. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 Stockfish 202007032109 0.001%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 43.599%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 40.114%
3. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 16.211%
4. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109 0.058%
5. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109 0.016%
6. Stockfish 202007032109 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 0.002%

Speculate AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 – StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4-5. 4. 5.
1. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 60.723% 15.034% 75.757% 17.991% 6.252% 5.424% 0.828%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 19.184% 46.659% 65.843% 34.088% 0.069% 0.069%
3. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 20.086% 38.223% 58.309% 41.584% 0.107% 0.107%
4. Stockfish 202007032109 0.007% 0.084% 0.091% 6.107% 93.802% 86.687% 7.115%
5. Stoofvlees II a14 0.230% 99.770% 7.713% 92.057%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 34.625%
2. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 26.096%
3. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 12.124%
4. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 12.031%
5. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 8.020%
6. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 7.013%
7. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109 0.047%
8. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109 0.035%
9. Stockfish 202007032109 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 0.003%
10. Stockfish 202007032109 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 0.003%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 41.638%
2. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 34.116%
3. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 24.155%
4. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 Stockfish 202007032109 0.050%
5. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh Stockfish 202007032109 0.038%
6. Stockfish 202007032109 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 0.003%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4
1 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 9.5 30.39 3.94 2.25 41 22 16 13
2 Stockfish 202004181536/202003092246/Latest/202005232210/202006170741/202007032109 2.0 28.96 3.35 2.66 23 26 24 19
3 AllieStein v0.6-n14.3beta/v0.7_dev-net_14.3/v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 3.0 28.33 3.39 2.89 18 23 24 23
4 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010/v0.25.1-sv-t60-3010/v0.25.1-svjio-t60-3972-mlh/v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 2.0 28.29 3.32 2.90 17 23 25 23
5 Stoofvlees II a14 0.5 24.03 3.41 4.29 2 6 11 22

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.81h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-07-13 02:51 19 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh
2020-07-13 04:39 20 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2
2020-07-13 06:27 21 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-13 08:16 22 Stockfish 202007032109 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2
2020-07-13 10:04 23 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-07-13 11:52 24 Stoofvlees II a14 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2
2020-07-13 13:41 25 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0
2020-07-13 15:29 26 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2
2020-07-13 17:17 27 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh
2020-07-13 19:06 28 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2
2020-07-13 20:54 29 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-13 22:42 30 Stockfish 202007032109 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2
2020-07-14 00:31 31 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-07-14 02:19 32 Stoofvlees II a14 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2
2020-07-14 04:07 33 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0
2020-07-14 05:56 34 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2
2020-07-14 07:44 35 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh
2020-07-14 09:32 36 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2
2020-07-14 11:21 37 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-14 13:09 38 Stockfish 202007032109 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2
2020-07-14 14:57 39 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-07-14 16:46 40 Stoofvlees II a14 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2
2020-07-14 18:34 41 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0
2020-07-14 20:22 42 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2
2020-07-14 22:11 43 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh
2020-07-14 23:59 44 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2
2020-07-15 01:47 45 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-15 03:36 46 Stockfish 202007032109 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2
2020-07-15 05:24 47 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-07-15 07:12 48 Stoofvlees II a14 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2
2020-07-15 09:01 49 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0
2020-07-15 10:49 50 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2
2020-07-15 12:37 51 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh
2020-07-15 14:26 52 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2
2020-07-15 16:14 53 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-15 18:02 54 Stockfish 202007032109 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2
2020-07-15 19:51 55 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-07-15 21:39 56 Stoofvlees II a14 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2
Posted inBayesElo