For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post


Including Top4 games

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations except as biased random().
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4-5. 4. 5.
1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 85.467% 14.531% 99.998% 0.002%
2. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 13.521% 55.101% 68.622% 31.378%
3. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 1.012% 30.368% 31.380% 68.287% 0.333% 0.333%
4. Stockfish 202007032109 0.333% 99.667% 99.352% 0.315%
5. Stoofvlees II a14 100.000% 0.315% 99.685%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 55.099%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 30.368%
3. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 13.521%
4. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 1.010%
5. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 0.002%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 68.620%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 31.378%
3. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 0.002%

Speculate LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh – StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4-5. 4. 5.
1. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 99.646% 0.354% 100.000%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 0.333% 99.646% 99.979% 0.021%
3. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 0.021% 0.021% 98.711% 1.268% 1.268%
4. Stockfish 202007032109 1.268% 98.732% 98.399% 0.333%
5. Stoofvlees II a14 100.000% 0.333% 99.667%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 99.646%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 0.333%
3. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 0.021%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 99.979%
2. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 0.021%

Speculate LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh – StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4-5. 4. 5.
1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 99.419% 0.581% 100.000%
2. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 70.150% 70.150% 29.850%
3. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 0.581% 29.269% 29.850% 69.957% 0.193% 0.193%
4. Stockfish 202007032109 0.193% 99.807% 99.502% 0.305%
5. Stoofvlees II a14 100.000% 0.305% 99.695%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 70.150%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 29.269%
3. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 0.581%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 70.150%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 29.850%

Speculate LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh – StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4-5. 4. 5.
1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 93.644% 6.356% 100.000%
2. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 6.356% 89.473% 95.829% 4.156% 0.015% 0.015%
3. LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 4.171% 4.171% 95.829%
4. Stockfish 202007032109 0.015% 99.985% 99.652% 0.333%
5. Stoofvlees II a14 100.000% 0.333% 99.667%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 89.473%
2. StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 6.356%
3. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 4.171%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 95.829%
2. AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 4.171%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4
1 Stockfish 202004181536/202003092246/Latest/202005232210/202006170741/202007032109 6.0 29.08 3.00 2.58 33 18 17 21
2 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 26.5 29.03 0.97 2.48 10 42 40 9
3 AllieStein v0.6-n14.3beta/v0.7_dev-net_14.3/v0.7_dev2-net_15.0 7.5 28.61 3.00 2.81 27 17 17 24
4 LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010/v0.25.1-sv-t60-3010/v0.25.1-svjio-t60-3972-mlh/v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh 6.5 28.59 2.94 2.81 26 18 18 25
5 Stoofvlees II a14 4.5 24.69 3.05 4.32 4 5 8 21

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.77h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-07-15 14:26 53 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 Stockfish 202007032109
2020-07-15 16:13 54 Stockfish 202007032109 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2
2020-07-15 17:59 55 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-07-15 19:45 56 Stoofvlees II a14 StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2