TCEC Season 18, SFNNUEvsTop4, Game 56 speculation simulation

For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

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Including Top4 games

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations except as biased random().
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos	Name		1.	2.		1-2.		3.		4-5.		4.	5.
1.	AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0		100.000%			100.000%
2.	LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh			89.657%		89.657%		10.343%
3.	StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2			10.343%		10.343%		89.657%
4.	Stockfish 202007032109									100.000%		100.000%
5.	Stoofvlees II a14									100.000%			100.000%

Top promotions

Pos	1.	2.
1.	AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0	LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh	89.657%
2.	AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0	StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2	10.343%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1.	AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0	LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh	89.657%
2.	AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0	StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2	10.343%

Speculate Stoofvlees II a14 – StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos	Name		1.	2.		1-2.		3.		4-5.		4.	5.
1.	AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0		100.000%			100.000%
2.	LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh			100.000%		100.000%
3.	StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2							100.000%
4.	Stockfish 202007032109									100.000%		100.000%
5.	Stoofvlees II a14									100.000%			100.000%

Top promotions

Pos	1.	2.
1.	AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0	LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh	100.000%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1.

AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0

LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh

100.000%

Speculate Stoofvlees II a14 – StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos	Name		1.	2.		1-2.		3.		4-5.		4.	5.
1.	AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0		100.000%			100.000%
2.	LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh			100.000%		100.000%
3.	StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2							100.000%
4.	Stockfish 202007032109									100.000%		100.000%
5.	Stoofvlees II a14									100.000%			100.000%

Top promotions

Pos	1.	2.
1.	AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0	LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh	100.000%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1.

AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0

LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh

100.000%

Speculate Stoofvlees II a14 – StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos	Name		1.	2.		1-2.		3.		4-5.		4.	5.
1.	AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0		100.000%			100.000%
2.	StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2			100.000%		100.000%
3.	LCZero v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh							100.000%
4.	Stockfish 202007032109									100.000%		100.000%
5.	Stoofvlees II a14									100.000%			100.000%

Top promotions

Pos	1.	2.
1.	AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0	StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2	100.000%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1.

AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0

StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2

100.000%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank	Player name	Points	EPoints	StdDev	ERank	1	2	3	4
1	Stockfish 202004181536/202003092246/Latest/202005232210/202006170741/202007032109	7.0	29.04	2.92	2.59	34	17	16	22
2	StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2	28.5	29.00	0.43	2.47	5	47	44	4
3	AllieStein v0.6-n14.3beta/v0.7_dev-net_14.3/v0.7_dev2-net_15.0	7.5	28.60	3.01	2.80	29	16	16	25
4	LCZero v0.24-sv-t60-3010/v0.25.1-sv-t60-3010/v0.25.1-svjio-t60-3972-mlh/v0.26.0-sv-t60-4229-mlh	7.0	28.53	2.93	2.83	28	16	16	26
5	Stoofvlees II a14	5.0	24.82	3.00	4.31	4	4	8	22