For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations except as biased random().
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 51.094% 24.209% 75.303% 11.781% 6.132% 3.317% 1.829% 0.961% 0.452% 0.225% 0.179% 0.046%
2. Minic 2.46 23.147% 25.140% 48.287% 17.409% 11.907% 8.293% 5.939% 4.064% 2.596% 1.505% 1.254% 0.251%
3. Roc 20200804 5.737% 12.971% 18.708% 17.747% 17.650% 15.123% 11.947% 8.905% 6.037% 3.883% 3.035% 0.848%
4. Igel 2.6.0 6.386% 12.478% 18.864% 15.146% 14.819% 13.317% 11.588% 9.970% 8.268% 8.028% 5.728% 2.300%
5. Marvin 4.0.0-a13 9.734% 12.402% 22.136% 12.619% 11.800% 10.773% 10.119% 9.711% 9.682% 13.160% 8.198% 4.962%
6. Gogobello 2.2 1.401% 4.478% 5.879% 8.489% 12.224% 14.903% 16.000% 15.801% 13.978% 12.726% 9.214% 3.512%
7. Pirarucu 3.3.5 1.082% 3.687% 4.769% 7.015% 10.106% 12.845% 15.154% 16.326% 16.278% 17.507% 12.432% 5.075%
8. iCE 4.0.853 0.717% 2.736% 3.453% 5.961% 9.477% 12.892% 15.614% 17.475% 17.312% 17.816% 12.721% 5.095%
9. Topple 0.7.5-20200605 0.459% 1.201% 1.660% 2.404% 3.628% 5.263% 7.293% 10.155% 15.116% 54.481% 26.840% 27.641%
10. Counter 3.6dev2 0.243% 0.698% 0.941% 1.429% 2.257% 3.274% 4.517% 6.632% 10.281% 70.669% 20.399% 50.270%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Minic 2.46 19.049%
2. Minic 2.46 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 12.482%
3. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Igel 2.6.0 8.341%
4. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Roc 20200804 8.108%
5. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Marvin 4.0.0-a13 8.064%
6. Marvin 4.0.0-a13 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 4.683%
7. Igel 2.6.0 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 3.033%
8. Minic 2.46 Roc 20200804 2.789%
9. Minic 2.46 Marvin 4.0.0-a13 2.781%
10. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Gogobello 2.2 2.636%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Minic 2.46 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 31.531%
2. Marvin 4.0.0-a13 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 12.747%
3. Igel 2.6.0 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 11.374%
4. Roc 20200804 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 10.652%
5. Marvin 4.0.0-a13 Minic 2.46 5.188%
6. Minic 2.46 Roc 20200804 4.142%
7. Igel 2.6.0 Minic 2.46 3.859%
8. Gogobello 2.2 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 3.157%
9. Pirarucu 3.3.5 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 2.618%
10. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 iCE 4.0.853 1.915%

Speculate Pirarucu 3.3.5 – Marvin 4.0.0-a13 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 53.016% 23.629% 76.645% 10.945% 5.747% 3.132% 1.810% 1.033% 0.484% 0.204% 0.171% 0.033%
2. Minic 2.46 24.548% 25.654% 50.202% 16.332% 11.332% 8.155% 5.827% 4.064% 2.591% 1.497% 1.225% 0.272%
3. Roc 20200804 6.360% 13.421% 19.781% 17.362% 17.047% 14.603% 12.108% 9.236% 6.191% 3.672% 2.932% 0.740%
4. Igel 2.6.0 6.858% 13.102% 19.960% 15.245% 13.970% 12.704% 11.697% 10.290% 8.463% 7.671% 5.582% 2.089%
5. Pirarucu 3.3.5 3.210% 8.735% 11.945% 13.581% 15.986% 16.306% 15.152% 12.576% 8.711% 5.743% 4.490% 1.253%
6. Gogobello 2.2 1.740% 5.529% 7.269% 9.372% 12.638% 15.025% 15.569% 15.593% 13.495% 11.039% 8.326% 2.713%
7. iCE 4.0.853 0.938% 3.327% 4.265% 6.916% 10.007% 13.428% 15.952% 17.817% 16.704% 14.911% 11.045% 3.866%
8. Marvin 4.0.0-a13 2.678% 4.751% 7.429% 6.767% 7.900% 9.115% 11.212% 13.703% 17.577% 26.297% 16.403% 9.894%
9. Topple 0.7.5-20200605 0.412% 1.163% 1.575% 2.104% 3.205% 4.506% 6.271% 9.243% 14.909% 58.187% 28.555% 29.632%
10. Counter 3.6dev2 0.240% 0.689% 0.929% 1.376% 2.168% 3.026% 4.402% 6.445% 10.875% 70.779% 21.271% 49.508%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Minic 2.46 20.415%
2. Minic 2.46 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 13.729%
3. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Igel 2.6.0 8.979%
4. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Roc 20200804 8.718%
5. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Pirarucu 3.3.5 5.566%
6. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Gogobello 2.2 3.348%
7. Igel 2.6.0 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 3.273%
8. Minic 2.46 Roc 20200804 2.958%
9. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Marvin 4.0.0-a13 2.918%
10. Roc 20200804 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 2.860%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Minic 2.46 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 34.144%
2. Igel 2.6.0 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 12.252%
3. Roc 20200804 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 11.578%
4. Pirarucu 3.3.5 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 6.841%
5. Minic 2.46 Roc 20200804 4.499%
6. Igel 2.6.0 Minic 2.46 4.320%
7. Marvin 4.0.0-a13 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 4.096%
8. Gogobello 2.2 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 4.082%
9. Minic 2.46 Pirarucu 3.3.5 2.573%
10. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 iCE 4.0.853 2.342%

Speculate Pirarucu 3.3.5 – Marvin 4.0.0-a13 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 51.611% 23.977% 75.588% 11.409% 6.101% 3.363% 1.833% 1.001% 0.489% 0.216% 0.181% 0.035%
2. Minic 2.46 23.575% 25.017% 48.592% 17.151% 11.773% 8.298% 5.797% 4.027% 2.788% 1.574% 1.292% 0.282%
3. Roc 20200804 6.051% 13.206% 19.257% 17.682% 17.326% 14.919% 11.836% 8.897% 6.079% 4.004% 3.132% 0.872%
4. Igel 2.6.0 6.494% 12.446% 18.940% 14.962% 14.564% 12.972% 11.562% 9.973% 8.557% 8.470% 6.005% 2.465%
5. Marvin 4.0.0-a13 8.480% 12.464% 20.944% 13.897% 13.000% 12.026% 10.978% 10.162% 9.182% 9.811% 6.663% 3.148%
6. Gogobello 2.2 1.339% 4.690% 6.029% 8.602% 11.987% 14.603% 15.918% 15.459% 14.146% 13.256% 9.621% 3.635%
7. Pirarucu 3.3.5 0.959% 3.282% 4.241% 6.554% 10.105% 12.789% 15.322% 16.969% 16.918% 17.102% 12.182% 4.920%
8. iCE 4.0.853 0.734% 2.891% 3.625% 5.902% 9.337% 12.610% 15.130% 17.394% 17.621% 18.381% 13.244% 5.137%
9. Topple 0.7.5-20200605 0.497% 1.337% 1.834% 2.418% 3.611% 5.203% 7.211% 9.783% 14.440% 55.500% 27.484% 28.016%
10. Counter 3.6dev2 0.260% 0.690% 0.950% 1.423% 2.196% 3.217% 4.413% 6.335% 9.780% 71.686% 20.196% 51.490%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Minic 2.46 19.296%
2. Minic 2.46 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 12.936%
3. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Roc 20200804 8.298%
4. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Igel 2.6.0 8.264%
5. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Marvin 4.0.0-a13 8.108%
6. Marvin 4.0.0-a13 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 3.911%
7. Igel 2.6.0 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 3.048%
8. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Gogobello 2.2 2.849%
9. Minic 2.46 Roc 20200804 2.811%
10. Minic 2.46 Marvin 4.0.0-a13 2.735%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Minic 2.46 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 32.232%
2. Marvin 4.0.0-a13 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 12.019%
3. Igel 2.6.0 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 11.312%
4. Roc 20200804 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 10.937%
5. Marvin 4.0.0-a13 Minic 2.46 4.726%
6. Minic 2.46 Roc 20200804 4.250%
7. Igel 2.6.0 Minic 2.46 3.952%
8. Gogobello 2.2 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 3.367%
9. Pirarucu 3.3.5 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 2.292%
10. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 iCE 4.0.853 2.030%

Speculate Pirarucu 3.3.5 – Marvin 4.0.0-a13 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 44.313% 26.625% 70.938% 14.364% 7.506% 3.642% 1.979% 0.963% 0.414% 0.194% 0.156% 0.038%
2. Marvin 4.0.0-a13 24.392% 21.214% 45.606% 16.882% 12.356% 8.989% 6.337% 4.385% 2.880% 2.565% 1.810% 0.755%
3. Minic 2.46 19.179% 22.828% 42.007% 19.831% 13.961% 9.489% 6.414% 4.237% 2.497% 1.564% 1.251% 0.313%
4. Roc 20200804 4.784% 11.036% 15.820% 16.896% 19.034% 16.924% 12.814% 9.017% 5.787% 3.708% 2.876% 0.832%
5. Igel 2.6.0 5.039% 10.446% 15.485% 14.452% 15.854% 14.875% 12.638% 10.433% 8.235% 8.028% 5.604% 2.424%
6. Gogobello 2.2 0.925% 3.230% 4.155% 6.855% 11.317% 15.319% 17.235% 16.643% 14.536% 13.940% 10.116% 3.824%
7. iCE 4.0.853 0.490% 1.815% 2.305% 4.513% 8.208% 12.311% 16.245% 18.532% 18.255% 19.631% 13.842% 5.789%
8. Pirarucu 3.3.5 0.173% 0.917% 1.090% 2.403% 5.076% 8.438% 12.532% 16.992% 21.421% 32.048% 20.988% 11.060%
9. Topple 0.7.5-20200605 0.495% 1.281% 1.776% 2.611% 4.477% 6.551% 8.943% 11.767% 15.393% 48.482% 24.398% 24.084%
10. Counter 3.6dev2 0.210% 0.608% 0.818% 1.193% 2.211% 3.462% 4.863% 7.031% 10.582% 69.840% 18.959% 50.881%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Minic 2.46 14.136%
2. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Marvin 4.0.0-a13 14.066%
3. Marvin 4.0.0-a13 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 12.236%
4. Minic 2.46 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 9.388%
5. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Igel 2.6.0 6.121%
6. Marvin 4.0.0-a13 Minic 2.46 6.102%
7. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Roc 20200804 5.987%
8. Minic 2.46 Marvin 4.0.0-a13 4.717%
9. Marvin 4.0.0-a13 Roc 20200804 2.322%
10. Igel 2.6.0 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 2.171%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Marvin 4.0.0-a13 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 26.302%
2. Minic 2.46 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 23.524%
3. Marvin 4.0.0-a13 Minic 2.46 10.819%
4. Igel 2.6.0 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 8.292%
5. Roc 20200804 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 7.943%
6. Marvin 4.0.0-a13 Roc 20200804 3.329%
7. Igel 2.6.0 Marvin 4.0.0-a13 3.068%
8. Minic 2.46 Roc 20200804 3.049%
9. Igel 2.6.0 Minic 2.46 2.794%
10. Gogobello 2.2 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 2.035%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 0.5 13.29 1.82 1.75 58 24 10 5 2 1 0 0 0
2 Minic 2.40/2.45/2.46 1.0 11.45 2.32 3.20 21 26 18 12 8 6 4 3 2
3 Roc 20200804 1.0 10.14 1.93 4.28 5 14 20 19 15 11 7 5 2
4 Igel 2.6-dev-3/2.6.0 0.5 9.85 2.34 4.67 6 14 17 15 13 11 9 7 5
5 Marvin 4.0.0-a13 1.0 9.11 2.94 5.42 8 11 12 11 10 10 10 11 11
6 Gogobello 2.2 0.5 8.57 1.91 5.96 1 4 8 13 16 17 16 14 9
7 Pirarucu 3.3.5 0.5 8.12 1.97 6.43 1 3 6 10 13 16 18 17 13
8 iCE 4.0.853 0.5 8.00 1.85 6.58 0 2 5 9 13 16 19 18 13
9 Topple 0.7.5-20200605 0.5 6.36 2.39 7.95 0 1 3 4 6 8 10 15 26
10 Counter 3.6dev2 0.0 5.10 2.53 8.75 0 1 1 2 3 4 6 10 20

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.02h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-08-12 23:22 8 Counter 3.6dev2 iCE 4.0.853
2020-08-13 00:23 9 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Minic 2.46
2020-08-13 01:24 10 Gogobello 2.2 Igel 2.6.0
2020-08-13 02:25 11 Igel 2.6.0 Roc 20200804
2020-08-13 03:26 12 Minic 2.46 Gogobello 2.2
2020-08-13 04:27 13 iCE 4.0.853 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25
2020-08-13 05:28 14 Marvin 4.0.0-a13 Counter 3.6dev2
2020-08-13 06:29 15 Topple 0.7.5-20200605 Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-08-13 07:30 16 Roc 20200804 Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-08-13 08:31 17 Counter 3.6dev2 Topple 0.7.5-20200605
2020-08-13 09:32 18 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Marvin 4.0.0-a13
2020-08-13 10:33 19 Gogobello 2.2 iCE 4.0.853
2020-08-13 11:34 20 Igel 2.6.0 Minic 2.46
2020-08-13 12:35 21 Minic 2.46 Roc 20200804
2020-08-13 13:36 22 iCE 4.0.853 Igel 2.6.0
2020-08-13 14:37 23 Marvin 4.0.0-a13 Gogobello 2.2
2020-08-13 15:38 24 Topple 0.7.5-20200605 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25
2020-08-13 16:39 25 Pirarucu 3.3.5 Counter 3.6dev2
2020-08-13 17:40 26 Roc 20200804 Counter 3.6dev2
2020-08-13 18:41 27 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-08-13 19:42 28 Gogobello 2.2 Topple 0.7.5-20200605
2020-08-13 20:43 29 Igel 2.6.0 Marvin 4.0.0-a13
2020-08-13 21:44 30 Minic 2.46 iCE 4.0.853
2020-08-13 22:45 31 iCE 4.0.853 Roc 20200804
2020-08-13 23:46 32 Marvin 4.0.0-a13 Minic 2.46
2020-08-14 00:47 33 Topple 0.7.5-20200605 Igel 2.6.0
2020-08-14 01:48 34 Pirarucu 3.3.5 Gogobello 2.2
2020-08-14 02:49 35 Counter 3.6dev2 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25
2020-08-14 03:50 36 Roc 20200804 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25
2020-08-14 04:50 37 Gogobello 2.2 Counter 3.6dev2
2020-08-14 05:51 38 Igel 2.6.0 Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-08-14 06:52 39 Minic 2.46 Topple 0.7.5-20200605
2020-08-14 07:53 40 iCE 4.0.853 Marvin 4.0.0-a13
2020-08-14 08:54 41 Marvin 4.0.0-a13 Roc 20200804
2020-08-14 09:55 42 Topple 0.7.5-20200605 iCE 4.0.853
2020-08-14 10:56 43 Pirarucu 3.3.5 Minic 2.46
2020-08-14 11:57 44 Counter 3.6dev2 Igel 2.6.0
2020-08-14 12:58 45 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Gogobello 2.2
2020-08-14 13:59 46 Roc 20200804 Gogobello 2.2
2020-08-14 15:00 47 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Igel 2.6.0
2020-08-14 16:01 48 Counter 3.6dev2 Minic 2.46
2020-08-14 17:02 49 Pirarucu 3.3.5 iCE 4.0.853
2020-08-14 18:03 50 Topple 0.7.5-20200605 Marvin 4.0.0-a13
2020-08-14 19:04 51 Topple 0.7.5-20200605 Roc 20200804
2020-08-14 20:05 52 Marvin 4.0.0-a13 Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-08-14 21:06 53 iCE 4.0.853 Counter 3.6dev2
2020-08-14 22:07 54 Minic 2.46 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25
2020-08-14 23:08 55 Igel 2.6.0 Gogobello 2.2
2020-08-15 00:09 56 Roc 20200804 Igel 2.6.0
2020-08-15 01:10 57 Gogobello 2.2 Minic 2.46
2020-08-15 02:11 58 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 iCE 4.0.853
2020-08-15 03:12 59 Counter 3.6dev2 Marvin 4.0.0-a13
2020-08-15 04:13 60 Pirarucu 3.3.5 Topple 0.7.5-20200605
2020-08-15 05:14 61 Pirarucu 3.3.5 Roc 20200804
2020-08-15 06:15 62 Topple 0.7.5-20200605 Counter 3.6dev2
2020-08-15 07:16 63 Marvin 4.0.0-a13 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25
2020-08-15 08:17 64 iCE 4.0.853 Gogobello 2.2
2020-08-15 09:18 65 Minic 2.46 Igel 2.6.0
2020-08-15 10:19 66 Roc 20200804 Minic 2.46
2020-08-15 11:20 67 Igel 2.6.0 iCE 4.0.853
2020-08-15 12:21 68 Gogobello 2.2 Marvin 4.0.0-a13
2020-08-15 13:22 69 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Topple 0.7.5-20200605
2020-08-15 14:23 70 Counter 3.6dev2 Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-08-15 15:24 71 Counter 3.6dev2 Roc 20200804
2020-08-15 16:25 72 Pirarucu 3.3.5 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25
2020-08-15 17:26 73 Topple 0.7.5-20200605 Gogobello 2.2
2020-08-15 18:27 74 Marvin 4.0.0-a13 Igel 2.6.0
2020-08-15 19:28 75 iCE 4.0.853 Minic 2.46
2020-08-15 20:29 76 Roc 20200804 iCE 4.0.853
2020-08-15 21:30 77 Minic 2.46 Marvin 4.0.0-a13
2020-08-15 22:30 78 Igel 2.6.0 Topple 0.7.5-20200605
2020-08-15 23:31 79 Gogobello 2.2 Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-08-16 00:32 80 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Counter 3.6dev2
2020-08-16 01:33 81 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Roc 20200804
2020-08-16 02:34 82 Counter 3.6dev2 Gogobello 2.2
2020-08-16 03:35 83 Pirarucu 3.3.5 Igel 2.6.0
2020-08-16 04:36 84 Topple 0.7.5-20200605 Minic 2.46
2020-08-16 05:37 85 Marvin 4.0.0-a13 iCE 4.0.853
2020-08-16 06:38 86 Roc 20200804 Marvin 4.0.0-a13
2020-08-16 07:39 87 iCE 4.0.853 Topple 0.7.5-20200605
2020-08-16 08:40 88 Minic 2.46 Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-08-16 09:41 89 Igel 2.6.0 Counter 3.6dev2
2020-08-16 10:42 90 Gogobello 2.2 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25