Aug 12 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations except as biased random().
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.
1. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 100.000% 100.000%
2. Roc 20200804 87.196% 87.196% 12.804%
3. Combusken 1.3.0-TCEC19 12.804% 12.804% 58.308% 28.888%
4. Monolith 20200804 28.888% 71.112%
5. chess22k 1.14 99.834% 0.166%
6. ChessFighter 3.5.1 0.114% 82.231% 16.649% 0.989% 0.017%
7. Weiss 1.0-dev 0.722% 54.451% 43.196% 1.631%
8. FabChess 1.15 0.052% 16.881% 28.847% 54.126% 0.094%
9. Asymptote 0.9-dev_20200804 0.053% 1.689% 98.258%
10. Tucano 8.28_dev_16GiB 100.000%
11. A0lite v0.1.1_BadGyal9_LittleEnder12p 84.537% 15.463%
12. Bagatur 2.2 15.463% 84.537%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Roc 20200804 87.196%
2. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Combusken 1.3.0-TCEC19 12.804%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Roc 20200804 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 87.196%
2. Combusken 1.3.0-TCEC19 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 12.804%

Speculate ChessFighter 3.5.1 – FabChess 1.15 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.
1. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 100.000% 100.000%
2. Roc 20200804 86.742% 86.742% 13.258%
3. Combusken 1.3.0-TCEC19 13.258% 13.258% 58.213% 28.529%
4. Monolith 20200804 28.529% 71.471%
5. chess22k 1.14 99.213% 0.787%
6. ChessFighter 3.5.1 0.787% 99.213%
7. Weiss 1.0-dev 95.151% 4.635% 0.214%
8. FabChess 1.15 4.578% 94.834% 0.588%
9. Asymptote 0.9-dev_20200804 0.271% 0.531% 99.198%
10. Tucano 8.28_dev_16GiB 100.000%
11. A0lite v0.1.1_BadGyal9_LittleEnder12p 83.925% 16.075%
12. Bagatur 2.2 16.075% 83.925%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Roc 20200804 86.742%
2. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Combusken 1.3.0-TCEC19 13.258%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Roc 20200804 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 86.742%
2. Combusken 1.3.0-TCEC19 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 13.258%

Speculate ChessFighter 3.5.1 – FabChess 1.15 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.
1. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 100.000% 100.000%
2. Roc 20200804 87.223% 87.223% 12.777%
3. Combusken 1.3.0-TCEC19 12.777% 12.777% 58.178% 29.045%
4. Monolith 20200804 29.045% 70.955%
5. chess22k 1.14 100.000%
6. ChessFighter 3.5.1 89.330% 10.556% 0.114%
7. Weiss 1.0-dev 0.132% 53.568% 44.426% 1.874%
8. FabChess 1.15 10.538% 35.876% 53.586%
9. Asymptote 0.9-dev_20200804 1.874% 98.126%
10. Tucano 8.28_dev_16GiB 100.000%
11. A0lite v0.1.1_BadGyal9_LittleEnder12p 84.622% 15.378%
12. Bagatur 2.2 15.378% 84.622%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Roc 20200804 87.223%
2. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Combusken 1.3.0-TCEC19 12.777%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Roc 20200804 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 87.223%
2. Combusken 1.3.0-TCEC19 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 12.777%

Speculate ChessFighter 3.5.1 – FabChess 1.15 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.
1. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 100.000% 100.000%
2. Roc 20200804 87.793% 87.793% 12.207%
3. Combusken 1.3.0-TCEC19 12.207% 12.207% 58.510% 29.283%
4. Monolith 20200804 29.283% 70.717%
5. chess22k 1.14 99.545% 0.455%
6. FabChess 1.15 0.455% 90.603% 7.701% 1.241%
7. ChessFighter 3.5.1 2.334% 87.785% 9.708% 0.173%
8. Weiss 1.0-dev 6.608% 4.385% 86.896% 2.111%
9. Asymptote 0.9-dev_20200804 0.129% 2.155% 97.716%
10. Tucano 8.28_dev_16GiB 100.000%
11. A0lite v0.1.1_BadGyal9_LittleEnder12p 84.994% 15.006%
12. Bagatur 2.2 15.006% 84.994%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Roc 20200804 87.793%
2. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Combusken 1.3.0-TCEC19 12.207%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Roc 20200804 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 87.793%
2. Combusken 1.3.0-TCEC19 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 12.207%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 18.0 122.52 -nan 1.08 94 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Roc 20200804 14.0 98.22 -nan 2.99 4 43 26 15 7 3 2 1 0 0 0
3 Monolith 20200804 13.0 93.85 -nan 3.58 2 26 28 21 12 6 3 1 0 0 0
4 Combusken 1.3.0-TCEC19 13.5 91.92 -nan 3.88 1 20 26 23 14 8 4 2 1 0 0
5 chess22k 1.14 11.5 83.23 -nan 5.30 0 3 9 18 27 22 13 6 2 0 0
6 FabChess 1.15 9.5 77.42 -nan 6.36 0 2 5 10 15 20 20 15 9 3 1
7 ChessFighter 3.5/3.5.1 10.0 76.29 -nan 6.57 0 1 4 8 14 20 22 18 10 3 1
8 Asymptote 0.9-dev_20200804 9.0 69.80 9.73 7.69 0 0 1 3 6 12 19 26 22 8 3
9 Weiss 1.0-dev 10.0 66.70 9.71 8.20 0 0 1 2 4 8 14 23 30 12 4
10 Tucano 8.28_dev/8.28_dev_16GiB/8.28_dev_16th_4GiB/8.28_dev_32GiB 7.0 50.34 8.85 10.54 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 10 31 33
11 Bagatur 2.2 4.5 50.19 9.22 10.54 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 10 30 32
12 A0lite v0.1_BadGyal9_LittleEnder12p/v0.1.1_BadGyal9_LittleEnder12p 5.0 43.53 9.01 11.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 14 26

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.10h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-08-12 10:18 127 A0lite v0.1.1_BadGyal9_LittleEnder12p ChessFighter 3.5.1
2020-08-12 11:24 128 FabChess 1.15 Combusken 1.3.0-TCEC19
2020-08-12 12:30 129 Roc 20200804 Asymptote 0.9-dev_20200804
2020-08-12 13:36 130 Monolith 20200804 Bagatur 2.2
2020-08-12 14:42 131 chess22k 1.14 Tucano 8.28_dev_16GiB
2020-08-12 15:49 132 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25 Weiss 1.0-dev
Posted inBayesElo