For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations except as biased random().
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 8_beta 69.236% 20.071% 89.307% 6.381% 2.551% 1.048% 0.445% 0.159% 0.076% 0.033% 0.029% 0.004%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 20.511% 33.962% 54.473% 16.544% 10.050% 6.860% 4.941% 3.388% 2.207% 1.537% 1.280% 0.257%
3. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 5.427% 17.955% 23.382% 24.879% 18.852% 13.646% 8.872% 5.713% 3.075% 1.581% 1.289% 0.292%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 1.491% 7.832% 9.323% 13.920% 16.356% 15.508% 14.071% 12.069% 9.725% 9.028% 6.660% 2.368%
5. Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe 1.377% 5.743% 7.120% 10.968% 13.994% 15.443% 15.478% 14.044% 11.566% 11.387% 8.277% 3.110%
6. RubiChess 1.8 0.827% 6.311% 7.138% 10.881% 13.520% 14.863% 15.208% 14.083% 12.078% 12.229% 8.857% 3.372%
7. rofChade 2.306 0.601% 3.992% 4.593% 7.087% 9.413% 11.234% 12.493% 14.274% 15.241% 25.665% 15.290% 10.375%
8. Fritz 17_20200130 0.252% 2.247% 2.499% 5.038% 7.655% 10.059% 12.674% 14.950% 17.154% 29.971% 19.086% 10.885%
9. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.260% 1.754% 2.014% 3.906% 6.535% 9.315% 12.109% 15.149% 18.387% 32.585% 19.888% 12.697%
10. Arasan 22.1_7982ba9 0.018% 0.133% 0.151% 0.396% 1.074% 2.024% 3.709% 6.171% 10.491% 75.984% 19.344% 56.640%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 8_beta ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 31.638%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Fire 8_beta 14.310%
3. Fire 8_beta SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 14.179%
4. Fire 8_beta Xiphos 0.6.1 6.358%
5. Fire 8_beta RubiChess 1.8 5.695%
6. Fire 8_beta Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe 4.307%
7. Fire 8_beta rofChade 2.306 3.501%
8. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 Fire 8_beta 3.410%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 3.179%
10. Fire 8_beta Fritz 17_20200130 1.995%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 8_beta ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 45.948%
2. Fire 8_beta SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 17.589%
3. Fire 8_beta Xiphos 0.6.1 7.156%
4. Fire 8_beta RubiChess 1.8 6.033%
5. Fire 8_beta Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe 5.019%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 4.239%
7. Fire 8_beta rofChade 2.306 3.759%
8. Fire 8_beta Fritz 17_20200130 2.097%
9. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fire 8_beta 1.605%
10. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Xiphos 0.6.1 1.394%

Speculate Fire 8_beta – ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 8_beta 90.296% 7.275% 97.571% 1.631% 0.515% 0.179% 0.068% 0.019% 0.014% 0.003% 0.003%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 3.730% 31.065% 34.795% 18.757% 13.277% 10.241% 8.286% 6.340% 4.618% 3.686% 2.920% 0.766%
3. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 3.514% 24.507% 28.021% 22.544% 17.291% 12.718% 8.923% 5.687% 3.118% 1.698% 1.401% 0.297%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.814% 10.106% 10.920% 14.891% 15.907% 14.974% 13.474% 11.512% 9.417% 8.905% 6.584% 2.321%
5. RubiChess 1.8 0.393% 8.895% 9.288% 11.994% 13.431% 14.257% 14.273% 13.400% 11.715% 11.642% 8.392% 3.250%
6. Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe 0.709% 7.129% 7.838% 11.536% 13.956% 15.220% 14.671% 13.863% 11.467% 11.449% 8.258% 3.191%
7. rofChade 2.306 0.283% 5.325% 5.608% 7.865% 9.748% 10.918% 12.313% 13.619% 15.137% 24.792% 14.937% 9.855%
8. Fritz 17_20200130 0.105% 3.123% 3.228% 5.811% 8.012% 10.057% 12.186% 14.566% 16.766% 29.374% 18.558% 10.816%
9. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.139% 2.411% 2.550% 4.485% 6.823% 9.398% 12.232% 15.092% 17.573% 31.847% 19.610% 12.237%
10. Arasan 22.1_7982ba9 0.017% 0.164% 0.181% 0.486% 1.040% 2.038% 3.574% 5.902% 10.175% 76.604% 19.337% 57.267%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 8_beta ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 30.624%
2. Fire 8_beta SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 23.678%
3. Fire 8_beta Xiphos 0.6.1 9.769%
4. Fire 8_beta RubiChess 1.8 8.758%
5. Fire 8_beta Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe 6.715%
6. Fire 8_beta rofChade 2.306 5.212%
7. Fire 8_beta Fritz 17_20200130 3.051%
8. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 Fire 8_beta 2.818%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Fire 8_beta 2.767%
10. Fire 8_beta Defenchess 2.3_dev2 2.339%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 8_beta ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 33.391%
2. Fire 8_beta SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 26.496%
3. Fire 8_beta Xiphos 0.6.1 10.366%
4. Fire 8_beta RubiChess 1.8 8.973%
5. Fire 8_beta Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe 7.242%
6. Fire 8_beta rofChade 2.306 5.396%
7. Fire 8_beta Fritz 17_20200130 3.110%
8. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fire 8_beta 2.439%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 0.748%
10. Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 0.235%

Speculate Fire 8_beta – ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 8_beta 67.196% 22.022% 89.218% 6.713% 2.434% 0.985% 0.393% 0.164% 0.066% 0.027% 0.022% 0.005%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 21.912% 36.030% 57.942% 17.070% 9.640% 6.088% 4.091% 2.647% 1.566% 0.956% 0.798% 0.158%
3. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 5.819% 16.231% 22.050% 25.144% 19.239% 13.976% 9.193% 5.748% 3.083% 1.567% 1.305% 0.262%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 1.599% 7.038% 8.637% 13.960% 16.621% 15.672% 14.298% 12.171% 9.745% 8.896% 6.627% 2.269%
5. Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe 1.403% 5.069% 6.472% 10.771% 14.295% 15.669% 15.864% 13.970% 11.777% 11.182% 8.162% 3.020%
6. RubiChess 1.8 0.867% 6.173% 7.040% 10.659% 13.260% 15.026% 15.063% 14.333% 12.268% 12.351% 8.909% 3.442%
7. rofChade 2.306 0.664% 3.695% 4.359% 6.867% 9.440% 11.312% 12.741% 13.964% 15.572% 25.745% 15.469% 10.276%
8. Fritz 17_20200130 0.267% 2.107% 2.374% 4.881% 7.749% 9.980% 12.391% 15.284% 17.017% 30.324% 19.397% 10.927%
9. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.253% 1.529% 1.782% 3.539% 6.282% 9.273% 12.240% 15.494% 18.573% 32.817% 19.849% 12.968%
10. Arasan 22.1_7982ba9 0.020% 0.106% 0.126% 0.396% 1.040% 2.019% 3.726% 6.225% 10.333% 76.135% 19.462% 56.673%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 8_beta ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 33.562%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Fire 8_beta 15.829%
3. Fire 8_beta SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 12.467%
4. Fire 8_beta Xiphos 0.6.1 5.563%
5. Fire 8_beta RubiChess 1.8 5.535%
6. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 Fire 8_beta 3.710%
7. Fire 8_beta Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe 3.671%
8. Fire 8_beta rofChade 2.306 3.239%
9. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 3.202%
10. Fire 8_beta Fritz 17_20200130 1.836%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 8_beta ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 49.391%
2. Fire 8_beta SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 16.177%
3. Fire 8_beta Xiphos 0.6.1 6.416%
4. Fire 8_beta RubiChess 1.8 5.884%
5. Fire 8_beta Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe 4.384%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 4.321%
7. Fire 8_beta rofChade 2.306 3.543%
8. Fire 8_beta Fritz 17_20200130 1.940%
9. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fire 8_beta 1.410%
10. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Xiphos 0.6.1 1.384%

Speculate Fire 8_beta – ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 53.786% 26.251% 80.037% 9.578% 4.696% 2.520% 1.551% 0.896% 0.503% 0.219% 0.192% 0.027%
2. Fire 8_beta 35.142% 37.553% 72.695% 14.855% 6.588% 3.182% 1.493% 0.739% 0.300% 0.148% 0.120% 0.028%
3. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 5.449% 15.221% 20.670% 26.274% 19.984% 13.990% 9.095% 5.519% 2.937% 1.531% 1.280% 0.251%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 1.626% 6.236% 7.862% 13.666% 16.712% 16.029% 14.564% 12.268% 9.766% 9.133% 6.839% 2.294%
5. Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe 1.292% 4.992% 6.284% 10.803% 14.375% 15.873% 15.744% 14.278% 11.624% 11.019% 8.076% 2.943%
6. RubiChess 1.8 1.262% 4.306% 5.568% 10.414% 13.717% 15.506% 15.873% 14.848% 12.230% 11.844% 8.596% 3.248%
7. rofChade 2.306 0.743% 2.647% 3.390% 6.319% 9.235% 11.409% 12.819% 14.569% 15.877% 26.382% 15.794% 10.588%
8. Fritz 17_20200130 0.356% 1.497% 1.853% 4.485% 7.534% 10.139% 12.734% 15.201% 17.610% 30.444% 19.195% 11.249%
9. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.335% 1.168% 1.503% 3.158% 6.080% 9.232% 12.302% 15.553% 18.691% 33.481% 20.349% 13.132%
10. Arasan 22.1_7982ba9 0.009% 0.129% 0.138% 0.448% 1.079% 2.120% 3.825% 6.129% 10.462% 75.799% 19.559% 56.240%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Fire 8_beta 34.065%
2. Fire 8_beta ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 21.080%
3. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 9.782%
4. Fire 8_beta SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 4.906%
5. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Xiphos 0.6.1 3.324%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe 3.020%
7. Fire 8_beta RubiChess 1.8 2.489%
8. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 2.422%
9. Fire 8_beta Xiphos 0.6.1 2.349%
10. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 Fire 8_beta 1.981%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 8_beta ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 55.145%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 12.204%
3. Fire 8_beta SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 6.887%
4. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Xiphos 0.6.1 4.122%
5. Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 3.593%
6. Fire 8_beta Xiphos 0.6.1 2.831%
7. Fire 8_beta RubiChess 1.8 2.711%
8. RubiChess 1.8 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 2.240%
9. Fire 8_beta Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe 1.912%
10. Fire 8_beta rofChade 2.306 1.629%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 Fire 8_beta 4.0 12.44 1.75 1.75 62 20 8 4 2 1 1 0 0
2 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 3.0 10.89 1.87 3.10 23 29 16 10 7 5 4 3 2
3 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25/Blitz Classic 2.26 16GiB/Blitz Classic 2.26 3.5 9.77 1.55 4.30 6 16 20 17 14 11 8 5 3
4 Xiphos 0.6.1 2.5 9.21 1.59 5.12 3 10 15 16 15 13 11 9 6
5 Igel 2.6-dev-3/2.6.0/2.7.2-experimental_nn-night-nurse-dkappe/2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe 3.0 8.81 1.54 5.66 2 7 11 13 15 15 14 12 9
6 RubiChess 1.8-dev_TCEC_Cup6/1.8 3.0 8.52 1.59 6.10 1 5 9 11 13 14 15 14 12
7 rofChade 2.305/2.306 2.0 8.40 1.83 6.22 2 6 9 10 11 12 13 13 13
8 Fritz 17_20200130 2.0 8.04 1.66 6.75 1 3 6 9 11 12 14 16 17
9 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 2.0 7.86 1.62 7.02 0 3 5 7 10 12 15 17 19
10 Arasan 22.1_94f0c64/22.1_7982ba9 2.0 6.06 1.65 8.99 0 0 1 1 2 4 6 10 19

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.45h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-08-25 05:28 29 rofChade 2.306 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-08-25 06:55 30 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-08-25 08:22 31 Fritz 17_20200130 RubiChess 1.8
2020-08-25 09:49 32 Xiphos 0.6.1 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-08-25 11:16 33 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 rofChade 2.306
2020-08-25 12:43 34 Arasan 22.1_7982ba9 Fire 8_beta
2020-08-25 14:10 35 Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26
2020-08-25 15:37 36 RubiChess 1.8 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26
2020-08-25 17:04 37 Fire 8_beta Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe
2020-08-25 18:31 38 rofChade 2.306 Arasan 22.1_7982ba9
2020-08-25 19:58 39 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3
2020-08-25 21:24 40 Fritz 17_20200130 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-08-25 22:51 41 Xiphos 0.6.1 RubiChess 1.8
2020-08-26 00:18 42 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-08-26 01:45 43 Arasan 22.1_7982ba9 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-08-26 03:12 44 Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe rofChade 2.306
2020-08-26 04:39 45 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 Fire 8_beta
2020-08-26 06:06 46 RubiChess 1.8 Fire 8_beta
2020-08-26 07:33 47 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 rofChade 2.306
2020-08-26 09:00 48 Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-08-26 10:27 49 Arasan 22.1_7982ba9 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-08-26 11:54 50 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-08-26 13:20 51 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 RubiChess 1.8
2020-08-26 14:47 52 Xiphos 0.6.1 Arasan 22.1_7982ba9
2020-08-26 16:14 53 Fritz 17_20200130 Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe
2020-08-26 17:41 54 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26
2020-08-26 19:08 55 rofChade 2.306 Fire 8_beta
2020-08-26 20:35 56 RubiChess 1.8 rofChade 2.306
2020-08-26 22:02 57 Fire 8_beta Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-08-26 23:29 58 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-08-27 00:56 59 Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-08-27 02:23 60 Arasan 22.1_7982ba9 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3
2020-08-27 03:50 61 Arasan 22.1_7982ba9 RubiChess 1.8
2020-08-27 05:16 62 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe
2020-08-27 06:43 63 Xiphos 0.6.1 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26
2020-08-27 08:10 64 Fritz 17_20200130 Fire 8_beta
2020-08-27 09:37 65 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 rofChade 2.306
2020-08-27 11:04 66 RubiChess 1.8 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-08-27 12:31 67 rofChade 2.306 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-08-27 13:58 68 Fire 8_beta Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-08-27 15:25 69 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3
2020-08-27 16:52 70 Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe Arasan 22.1_7982ba9
2020-08-27 18:19 71 Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe RubiChess 1.8
2020-08-27 19:45 72 Arasan 22.1_7982ba9 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26
2020-08-27 21:12 73 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Fire 8_beta
2020-08-27 22:39 74 Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.306
2020-08-28 00:06 75 Fritz 17_20200130 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-08-28 01:33 76 RubiChess 1.8 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-08-28 03:00 77 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-08-28 04:27 78 rofChade 2.306 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3
2020-08-28 05:54 79 Fire 8_beta Arasan 22.1_7982ba9
2020-08-28 07:21 80 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe
2020-08-28 08:48 81 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 RubiChess 1.8
2020-08-28 10:15 82 Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe Fire 8_beta
2020-08-28 11:41 83 Arasan 22.1_7982ba9 rofChade 2.306
2020-08-28 13:08 84 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-08-28 14:35 85 Xiphos 0.6.1 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-08-28 16:02 86 RubiChess 1.8 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-08-28 17:29 87 Fritz 17_20200130 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3
2020-08-28 18:56 88 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Arasan 22.1_7982ba9
2020-08-28 20:23 89 rofChade 2.306 Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe
2020-08-28 21:50 90 Fire 8_beta SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26