Aug 28 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations except as biased random().
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 8_beta 67.549% 26.935% 94.484% 4.881% 0.583% 0.052%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 28.583% 65.871% 94.454% 4.066% 1.074% 0.293% 0.113%
3. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 3.048% 3.039% 6.087% 48.710% 33.338% 10.236% 1.629%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.820% 2.942% 3.762% 29.999% 55.331% 8.848% 2.049% 0.011%
5. RubiChess 1.8 1.200% 1.200% 10.123% 5.765% 60.070% 22.547% 0.291% 0.004%
6. Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe 0.002% 0.002% 0.494% 0.520% 7.945% 55.737% 28.906% 6.137% 0.259% 0.259%
7. rofChade 2.306 0.011% 0.011% 1.727% 3.389% 12.543% 17.677% 63.238% 1.411% 0.004% 0.004%
8. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.013% 0.248% 7.129% 79.785% 12.825% 12.825%
9. Fritz 17_20200130 0.425% 12.663% 86.912% 86.900% 0.012%
10. Arasan 22.1_7982ba9 100.000% 0.012% 99.988%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 8_beta ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 63.386%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Fire 8_beta 25.756%
3. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 2.754%
4. Fire 8_beta Xiphos 0.6.1 2.725%
5. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 2.409%
6. Fire 8_beta RubiChess 1.8 1.200%
7. Xiphos 0.6.1 Fire 8_beta 0.684%
8. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 Fire 8_beta 0.495%
9. Fire 8_beta SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 0.225%
10. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.144%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 8_beta ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 89.142%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 5.163%
3. Fire 8_beta Xiphos 0.6.1 3.409%
4. Fire 8_beta RubiChess 1.8 1.200%
5. Fire 8_beta SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 0.720%
6. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.204%
7. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.149%
8. Fire 8_beta rofChade 2.306 0.011%
9. Fire 8_beta Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe 0.002%

Speculate Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe – Fire 8_beta 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 77.885% 17.714% 95.599% 3.081% 0.965% 0.274% 0.081%
2. Fire 8_beta 20.361% 71.272% 91.633% 6.163% 1.707% 0.497%
3. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 0.771% 6.542% 7.313% 44.722% 33.434% 11.909% 2.622%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.983% 3.165% 4.148% 28.894% 51.564% 11.619% 3.653% 0.122%
5. RubiChess 1.8 1.268% 1.268% 10.299% 4.275% 44.636% 38.057% 1.449% 0.016%
6. Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe 0.024% 0.024% 5.055% 5.175% 22.107% 52.942% 14.531% 0.166%
7. rofChade 2.306 0.015% 0.015% 1.786% 2.880% 8.958% 2.527% 82.004% 1.819% 0.011% 0.011%
8. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.118% 1.804% 82.326% 15.752% 15.752%
9. Fritz 17_20200130 0.090% 15.673% 84.237% 84.226% 0.011%
10. Arasan 22.1_7982ba9 100.000% 0.011% 99.989%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Fire 8_beta 71.023%
2. Fire 8_beta ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 16.389%
3. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 6.404%
4. Fire 8_beta Xiphos 0.6.1 2.542%
5. Fire 8_beta RubiChess 1.8 1.268%
6. Xiphos 0.6.1 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 0.824%
7. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 0.501%
8. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.458%
9. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.165%
10. Xiphos 0.6.1 Fire 8_beta 0.145%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 8_beta ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 87.412%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 6.905%
3. Fire 8_beta Xiphos 0.6.1 2.687%
4. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Xiphos 0.6.1 1.282%
5. Fire 8_beta RubiChess 1.8 1.268%
6. Fire 8_beta SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 0.228%
7. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.179%
8. Fire 8_beta Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe 0.023%
9. Fire 8_beta rofChade 2.306 0.015%
10. Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 0.001%

Speculate Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe – Fire 8_beta 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 8_beta 68.480% 25.179% 93.659% 5.778% 0.563%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 26.757% 67.575% 94.332% 4.102% 1.140% 0.337% 0.089%
3. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 3.815% 3.162% 6.977% 48.135% 33.590% 9.921% 1.377%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.948% 2.795% 3.743% 30.025% 55.686% 8.587% 1.959%
5. RubiChess 1.8 1.283% 1.283% 10.170% 5.948% 60.939% 21.490% 0.168% 0.002%
6. Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe 7.657% 63.370% 25.568% 3.383% 0.022% 0.022%
7. rofChade 2.306 0.006% 0.006% 1.790% 3.073% 12.550% 11.558% 69.710% 1.307% 0.006% 0.006%
8. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.009% 0.157% 4.368% 82.629% 12.837% 12.837%
9. Fritz 17_20200130 0.186% 12.679% 87.135% 87.124% 0.011%
10. Arasan 22.1_7982ba9 100.000% 0.011% 99.989%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 8_beta ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 64.480%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Fire 8_beta 23.739%
3. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 3.095%
4. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 2.960%
5. Fire 8_beta Xiphos 0.6.1 2.584%
6. Fire 8_beta RubiChess 1.8 1.283%
7. Xiphos 0.6.1 Fire 8_beta 0.873%
8. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 Fire 8_beta 0.567%
9. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.153%
10. Fire 8_beta SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 0.127%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 8_beta ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 88.219%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 6.055%
3. Fire 8_beta Xiphos 0.6.1 3.457%
4. Fire 8_beta RubiChess 1.8 1.283%
5. Fire 8_beta SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 0.694%
6. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.228%
7. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.058%
8. Fire 8_beta rofChade 2.306 0.006%

Speculate Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe – Fire 8_beta 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Fire 8_beta 95.559% 4.441% 100.000%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 4.441% 89.999% 94.440% 3.993% 1.135% 0.320% 0.112%
3. SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 0.808% 0.808% 53.263% 33.041% 10.596% 2.292%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 3.426% 3.426% 30.835% 55.276% 9.027% 1.436%
5. RubiChess 1.8 1.315% 1.315% 10.069% 5.616% 64.061% 18.910% 0.029%
6. rofChade 2.306 0.011% 0.011% 1.840% 4.932% 15.761% 63.565% 12.327% 1.552% 0.012% 0.012%
7. Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe 0.162% 12.952% 58.612% 26.614% 1.660% 1.660%
8. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.073% 0.733% 26.908% 61.511% 10.775% 10.775%
9. Fritz 17_20200130 2.124% 10.323% 87.553% 87.544% 0.009%
10. Arasan 22.1_7982ba9 100.000% 0.009% 99.991%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 8_beta ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 89.999%
2. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Fire 8_beta 4.441%
3. Fire 8_beta Xiphos 0.6.1 3.426%
4. Fire 8_beta RubiChess 1.8 1.315%
5. Fire 8_beta SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 0.808%
6. Fire 8_beta rofChade 2.306 0.011%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 8_beta ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 94.440%
2. Fire 8_beta Xiphos 0.6.1 3.426%
3. Fire 8_beta RubiChess 1.8 1.315%
4. Fire 8_beta SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26 0.808%
5. Fire 8_beta rofChade 2.306 0.011%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 Fire 8_beta 10.0 11.17 0.60 1.43 69 21 7 3 0 0 0 0 0
2 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 9.5 10.74 0.60 2.04 26 53 14 5 2 0 0 0 0
3 Xiphos 0.6.1 9.0 10.09 0.60 3.53 3 17 40 17 13 10 1 0 0
4 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25/Blitz Classic 2.26 16GiB/Blitz Classic 2.26 9.5 9.89 0.42 3.88 1 9 22 41 22 5 0 0 0
5 RubiChess 1.8-dev_TCEC_Cup6/1.8 9.0 9.50 0.43 4.94 0 1 13 19 29 34 4 0 0
6 rofChade 2.305/2.306 8.0 9.19 0.60 5.86 0 0 3 11 23 29 30 4 0
7 Igel 2.6-dev-3/2.6.0/2.7.2-experimental_nn-night-nurse-dkappe/2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe 8.0 8.88 0.60 6.50 0 0 1 4 12 21 51 10 1
8 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 7.0 8.00 0.58 8.03 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 70 17
9 Fritz 17_20200130 6.5 7.33 0.60 8.81 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 16 83
10 Arasan 22.1_94f0c64/22.1_7982ba9 4.5 5.21 0.59 10.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.41h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-08-28 08:40 83 Arasan 22.1_7982ba9 rofChade 2.306
2020-08-28 10:05 84 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-08-28 11:29 85 Xiphos 0.6.1 Fritz 17_20200130
2020-08-28 12:54 86 RubiChess 1.8 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-08-28 14:19 87 Fritz 17_20200130 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3
2020-08-28 15:43 88 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Arasan 22.1_7982ba9
2020-08-28 17:08 89 rofChade 2.306 Igel 2.7.2-dev_nn-night-nurse1.5-dkappe
2020-08-28 18:33 90 Fire 8_beta SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.26
Posted inBayesElo