For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations except as biased random().
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 74.632% 24.916% 99.548% 0.450% 0.002%
2. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 25.110% 70.667% 95.777% 4.080% 0.137% 0.005% 0.001%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.255% 4.109% 4.364% 72.596% 17.186% 4.222% 1.196% 0.436% 0.366% 0.070%
4. Stoofvlees II a14 0.003% 0.284% 0.287% 16.097% 42.525% 22.759% 11.337% 6.995% 5.118% 1.877%
5. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 0.011% 0.011% 3.606% 19.675% 26.571% 22.618% 27.519% 16.835% 10.684%
6. Fire 8_beta 0.006% 0.006% 1.339% 9.133% 18.939% 24.277% 46.306% 24.852% 21.454%
7. Komodo 2576.00 0.004% 0.004% 0.945% 5.896% 14.948% 21.485% 56.722% 26.657% 30.065%
8. Ethereal 12.43 0.003% 0.003% 0.887% 5.446% 12.556% 19.086% 62.022% 26.172% 35.850%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 70.551%
2. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 24.774%
3. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 3.795%
4. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.314%
5. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Stoofvlees II a14 0.264%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.140%
7. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 0.115%
8. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stoofvlees II a14 0.020%
9. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 0.010%
10. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Fire 8_beta 0.005%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 95.325%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 3.935%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 0.429%
4. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Stoofvlees II a14 0.266%
5. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stoofvlees II a14 0.021%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.010%
7. Fire 8_beta Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.005%
8. Komodo 2576.00 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.004%
9. Ethereal 12.43 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.003%
10. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 0.001%

Speculate Ethereal 12.43 – AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 73.400% 26.407% 99.807% 0.186% 0.006% 0.001%
2. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 26.522% 71.352% 97.874% 2.014% 0.108% 0.004%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.077% 1.933% 2.010% 63.938% 22.577% 7.375% 2.728% 1.372% 1.073% 0.299%
4. Stoofvlees II a14 0.001% 0.269% 0.270% 22.206% 35.981% 21.199% 11.772% 8.572% 6.101% 2.471%
5. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 0.017% 0.017% 5.155% 17.270% 23.323% 22.204% 32.031% 18.703% 13.328%
6. Ethereal 12.43 0.015% 0.015% 3.127% 9.816% 17.984% 22.360% 46.698% 23.877% 22.821%
7. Fire 8_beta 0.003% 0.003% 2.002% 8.650% 16.944% 21.942% 50.459% 24.974% 25.485%
8. Komodo 2576.00 0.004% 0.004% 1.372% 5.592% 13.170% 18.994% 60.868% 25.272% 35.596%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 71.328%
2. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 26.353%
3. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 1.782%
4. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Stoofvlees II a14 0.252%
5. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.151%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.053%
7. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 0.024%
8. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stoofvlees II a14 0.017%
9. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 0.016%
10. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Ethereal 12.43 0.015%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 97.681%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 1.835%
3. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Stoofvlees II a14 0.253%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 0.175%
5. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stoofvlees II a14 0.017%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.016%
7. Ethereal 12.43 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.015%
8. Komodo 2576.00 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.004%
9. Fire 8_beta Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.003%
10. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 0.001%

Speculate Ethereal 12.43 – AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 73.308% 26.227% 99.535% 0.458% 0.007%
2. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 26.467% 69.544% 96.011% 3.848% 0.139% 0.002%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.221% 3.958% 4.179% 73.930% 16.842% 3.746% 0.990% 0.313% 0.267% 0.046%
4. Stoofvlees II a14 0.004% 0.249% 0.253% 15.565% 43.234% 22.564% 11.277% 7.107% 5.245% 1.862%
5. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 0.015% 0.015% 3.333% 19.168% 26.639% 22.467% 28.378% 17.116% 11.262%
6. Fire 8_beta 0.004% 0.004% 1.368% 9.462% 19.481% 24.170% 45.515% 24.529% 20.986%
7. Komodo 2576.00 0.003% 0.003% 0.846% 5.899% 15.048% 21.690% 56.514% 26.482% 30.032%
8. Ethereal 12.43 0.652% 5.249% 12.520% 19.406% 62.173% 26.361% 35.812%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 69.438%
2. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 26.108%
3. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 3.621%
4. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.337%
5. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Stoofvlees II a14 0.229%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.118%
7. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 0.103%
8. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stoofvlees II a14 0.020%
9. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 0.014%
10. Stoofvlees II a14 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 0.003%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 95.546%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 3.739%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 0.440%
4. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Stoofvlees II a14 0.230%
5. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stoofvlees II a14 0.023%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.014%
7. Komodo 2576.00 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.003%
8. Fire 8_beta Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.003%
9. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 0.001%
10. Fire 8_beta LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 0.001%

Speculate Ethereal 12.43 – AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 73.119% 25.908% 99.027% 0.964% 0.009%
2. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 26.285% 66.677% 92.962% 6.873% 0.161% 0.004%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.590% 7.217% 7.807% 79.372% 10.837% 1.592% 0.340% 0.052% 0.046% 0.006%
4. Stoofvlees II a14 0.006% 0.182% 0.188% 9.723% 49.611% 23.556% 10.894% 6.028% 4.698% 1.330%
5. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 0.009% 0.009% 1.829% 20.667% 29.067% 23.253% 25.175% 16.567% 8.608%
6. Fire 8_beta 0.002% 0.002% 0.679% 9.931% 21.205% 26.813% 41.370% 24.767% 16.603%
7. Komodo 2576.00 0.005% 0.005% 0.473% 6.296% 16.555% 23.746% 52.925% 28.275% 24.650%
8. Ethereal 12.43 0.087% 2.488% 8.021% 14.954% 74.450% 25.647% 48.803%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 66.444%
2. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 25.546%
3. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 6.499%
4. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.718%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.358%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 0.231%
7. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Stoofvlees II a14 0.163%
8. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stoofvlees II a14 0.018%
9. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 0.006%
10. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Komodo 2576.00 0.005%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 91.990%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 6.857%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 0.949%
4. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Stoofvlees II a14 0.167%
5. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stoofvlees II a14 0.020%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.006%
7. Komodo 2576.00 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.005%
8. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 0.003%
9. Fire 8_beta Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.002%
10. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stoofvlees II a14 0.001%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 Stockfish 2020071122/Latest/20200816_nn-82215d0fd0df/202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df/128GiB_202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 22.5 34.14 1.98 1.39 65 31 4 0 0 0 0
2 LCZero v0.26.0_sv-t60-4229-mlh_opt2/v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 21.5 32.86 2.09 1.83 32 55 10 2 0 0 0
3 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0/v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 18.5 28.98 2.17 3.59 2 10 48 20 10 6 3
4 Stoofvlees II a14 17.0 27.05 2.00 4.80 0 2 17 29 22 15 10
5 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 16.5 25.93 2.07 5.62 0 1 8 17 21 21 18
6 Fire 8_beta 16.0 25.33 2.06 6.06 0 0 5 12 18 21 23
7 Komodo 2570.00/2576.00 15.0 25.03 2.17 6.25 0 0 5 10 16 19 23
8 Ethereal 12.28/12.42/12.43 15.0 24.69 2.19 6.47 0 0 3 9 13 18 23

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.84h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-09-16 12:47 144 Komodo 2576.00 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-09-16 15:37 145 Komodo 2576.00 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3
2020-09-16 18:27 146 Stoofvlees II a14 Ethereal 12.43
2020-09-16 21:18 147 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Fire 8_beta
2020-09-17 00:08 148 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df
2020-09-17 02:58 149 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100
2020-09-17 05:48 150 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-09-17 08:39 151 Fire 8_beta Stoofvlees II a14
2020-09-17 11:29 152 Ethereal 12.43 Komodo 2576.00
2020-09-17 14:19 153 Ethereal 12.43 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3
2020-09-17 17:09 154 Komodo 2576.00 Fire 8_beta
2020-09-17 20:00 155 Stoofvlees II a14 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df
2020-09-17 22:50 156 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100
2020-09-18 01:40 157 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-09-18 04:30 158 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-09-18 07:21 159 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Komodo 2576.00
2020-09-18 10:11 160 Fire 8_beta Ethereal 12.43
2020-09-18 13:01 161 Fire 8_beta ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3
2020-09-18 15:52 162 Ethereal 12.43 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df
2020-09-18 18:42 163 Komodo 2576.00 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100
2020-09-18 21:32 164 Stoofvlees II a14 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-09-19 00:22 165 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-09-19 03:13 166 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 2576.00
2020-09-19 06:03 167 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Ethereal 12.43
2020-09-19 08:53 168 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Fire 8_beta
2020-09-19 11:43 169 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3
2020-09-19 14:34 170 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Fire 8_beta
2020-09-19 17:24 171 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.43
2020-09-19 20:14 172 Stoofvlees II a14 Komodo 2576.00
2020-09-19 23:04 173 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Komodo 2576.00
2020-09-20 01:55 174 Ethereal 12.43 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-09-20 04:45 175 Fire 8_beta AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-09-20 07:35 176 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100
2020-09-20 10:26 177 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3
2020-09-20 13:16 178 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df
2020-09-20 16:06 179 Stoofvlees II a14 Fire 8_beta
2020-09-20 18:56 180 Komodo 2576.00 Ethereal 12.43
2020-09-20 21:47 181 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Ethereal 12.43
2020-09-21 00:37 182 Fire 8_beta Komodo 2576.00
2020-09-21 03:27 183 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Stoofvlees II a14
2020-09-21 06:17 184 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-09-21 09:08 185 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3
2020-09-21 11:58 186 Stoofvlees II a14 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100
2020-09-21 14:48 187 Komodo 2576.00 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df
2020-09-21 17:38 188 Ethereal 12.43 Fire 8_beta
2020-09-21 20:29 189 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Fire 8_beta
2020-09-21 23:19 190 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Ethereal 12.43
2020-09-22 02:09 191 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Komodo 2576.00
2020-09-22 04:59 192 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-09-22 07:50 193 Stoofvlees II a14 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3
2020-09-22 10:40 194 Komodo 2576.00 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-09-22 13:30 195 Ethereal 12.43 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100
2020-09-22 16:21 196 Fire 8_beta Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df
2020-09-22 19:11 197 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df
2020-09-22 22:01 198 Fire 8_beta LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100
2020-09-23 00:51 199 Ethereal 12.43 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-09-23 03:42 200 Komodo 2576.00 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-09-23 06:32 201 Komodo 2576.00 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3
2020-09-23 09:22 202 Stoofvlees II a14 Ethereal 12.43
2020-09-23 12:12 203 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Fire 8_beta
2020-09-23 15:03 204 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df
2020-09-23 17:53 205 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100
2020-09-23 20:43 206 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-09-23 23:33 207 Fire 8_beta Stoofvlees II a14
2020-09-24 02:24 208 Ethereal 12.43 Komodo 2576.00
2020-09-24 05:14 209 Ethereal 12.43 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3
2020-09-24 08:04 210 Komodo 2576.00 Fire 8_beta
2020-09-24 10:55 211 Stoofvlees II a14 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df
2020-09-24 13:45 212 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100
2020-09-24 16:35 213 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-09-24 19:25 214 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-09-24 22:16 215 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Komodo 2576.00
2020-09-25 01:06 216 Fire 8_beta Ethereal 12.43
2020-09-25 03:56 217 Fire 8_beta ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3
2020-09-25 06:46 218 Ethereal 12.43 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df
2020-09-25 09:37 219 Komodo 2576.00 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100
2020-09-25 12:27 220 Stoofvlees II a14 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-09-25 15:17 221 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-09-25 18:07 222 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 2576.00
2020-09-25 20:58 223 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Ethereal 12.43
2020-09-25 23:48 224 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Fire 8_beta