For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations except as biased random().
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 99.890% 0.110% 100.000%
2. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 0.110% 99.497% 99.607% 0.391% 0.002%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.387% 0.387% 80.509% 18.893% 0.201% 0.010%
4. Stoofvlees II a14 0.006% 0.006% 18.982% 76.676% 3.771% 0.536% 0.029% 0.025% 0.004%
5. Komodo 2576.00 0.054% 1.764% 54.698% 31.259% 12.225% 9.467% 2.758%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 0.064% 2.609% 33.276% 46.152% 17.899% 14.569% 3.330%
7. Fire 8_beta 0.037% 5.825% 14.461% 79.677% 46.147% 33.530%
8. Ethereal 12.43 0.019% 2.229% 7.582% 90.170% 29.792% 60.378%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 99.497%
2. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.387%
3. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.110%
4. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Stoofvlees II a14 0.006%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 99.607%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.387%
3. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Stoofvlees II a14 0.006%

Speculate Ethereal 12.43 – AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 99.884% 0.116% 100.000%
2. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 0.116% 99.785% 99.901% 0.098% 0.001%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.080% 0.080% 63.477% 35.730% 0.686% 0.026% 0.001% 0.001%
4. Stoofvlees II a14 0.019% 0.019% 36.091% 59.675% 3.581% 0.576% 0.058% 0.053% 0.005%
5. Komodo 2576.00 0.166% 1.934% 52.104% 28.476% 17.320% 12.724% 4.596%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 0.166% 2.513% 31.835% 41.938% 23.548% 17.224% 6.324%
7. Ethereal 12.43 0.001% 0.102% 6.518% 16.438% 76.941% 40.900% 36.041%
8. Fire 8_beta 0.001% 0.045% 5.276% 12.546% 82.132% 29.098% 53.034%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 99.785%
2. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.116%
3. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.080%
4. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Stoofvlees II a14 0.019%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 99.901%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.080%
3. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Stoofvlees II a14 0.019%

Speculate Ethereal 12.43 – AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 99.891% 0.109% 100.000%
2. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 0.109% 99.510% 99.619% 0.375% 0.006%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.362% 0.362% 81.543% 17.935% 0.158% 0.002%
4. Stoofvlees II a14 0.019% 0.019% 17.969% 77.797% 3.673% 0.522% 0.020% 0.016% 0.004%
5. Komodo 2576.00 0.061% 1.650% 55.004% 31.469% 11.816% 9.116% 2.700%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 0.052% 2.568% 33.490% 46.278% 17.612% 14.380% 3.232%
7. Fire 8_beta 0.031% 5.910% 14.678% 79.381% 46.572% 32.809%
8. Ethereal 12.43 0.013% 1.765% 7.051% 91.171% 29.916% 61.255%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 99.510%
2. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.362%
3. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.109%
4. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Stoofvlees II a14 0.019%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 99.619%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.362%
3. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Stoofvlees II a14 0.019%

Speculate Ethereal 12.43 – AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 99.890% 0.110% 100.000%
2. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 0.110% 98.438% 98.548% 1.446% 0.006%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 1.442% 1.442% 91.134% 7.399% 0.025%
4. Stoofvlees II a14 0.010% 0.010% 7.399% 88.281% 3.740% 0.554% 0.016% 0.016%
5. Komodo 2576.00 0.009% 1.723% 55.925% 33.135% 9.208% 7.954% 1.254%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 0.012% 2.543% 33.984% 48.374% 15.087% 13.763% 1.324%
7. Fire 8_beta 0.047% 5.981% 15.752% 78.220% 61.456% 16.764%
8. Ethereal 12.43 0.001% 0.345% 2.185% 97.469% 16.811% 80.658%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 98.438%
2. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 1.442%
3. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 0.110%
4. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Stoofvlees II a14 0.010%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 98.548%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 1.442%
3. Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Stoofvlees II a14 0.010%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 Stockfish 2020071122/Latest/20200816_nn-82215d0fd0df/202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df/128GiB_202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df 31.0 34.48 1.04 1.03 97 3 0 0 0 0 0
2 LCZero v0.26.0_sv-t60-4229-mlh_opt2/v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 28.5 31.82 1.05 2.00 3 93 4 0 0 0 0
3 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0/v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 25.5 28.98 1.15 3.26 0 3 71 22 3 0 0
4 Stoofvlees II a14 24.5 27.86 1.13 4.00 0 0 23 58 13 4 1
5 Komodo 2570.00/2576.00 22.5 25.94 1.15 5.72 0 0 1 10 36 30 17
6 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 23.0 25.87 1.06 5.79 0 0 1 8 34 33 18
7 Fire 8_beta 22.0 24.82 1.05 6.85 0 0 0 1 10 21 38
8 Ethereal 12.28/12.42/12.43 21.0 24.23 1.16 7.35 0 0 0 1 5 12 26

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.86h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-09-23 07:15 200 Komodo 2576.00 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-09-23 10:06 201 Komodo 2576.00 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3
2020-09-23 12:57 202 Stoofvlees II a14 Ethereal 12.43
2020-09-23 15:49 203 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Fire 8_beta
2020-09-23 18:40 204 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df
2020-09-23 21:31 205 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100
2020-09-24 00:23 206 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-09-24 03:14 207 Fire 8_beta Stoofvlees II a14
2020-09-24 06:05 208 Ethereal 12.43 Komodo 2576.00
2020-09-24 08:57 209 Ethereal 12.43 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3
2020-09-24 11:48 210 Komodo 2576.00 Fire 8_beta
2020-09-24 14:39 211 Stoofvlees II a14 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df
2020-09-24 17:31 212 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100
2020-09-24 20:22 213 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-09-24 23:13 214 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-09-25 02:05 215 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Komodo 2576.00
2020-09-25 04:56 216 Fire 8_beta Ethereal 12.43
2020-09-25 07:47 217 Fire 8_beta ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3
2020-09-25 10:39 218 Ethereal 12.43 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df
2020-09-25 13:30 219 Komodo 2576.00 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100
2020-09-25 16:21 220 Stoofvlees II a14 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-09-25 19:13 221 ScorpioNN 3.0.8.3 Stoofvlees II a14
2020-09-25 22:04 222 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 2576.00
2020-09-26 00:55 223 LCZero v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100 Ethereal 12.43
2020-09-26 03:47 224 Stockfish 202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df Fire 8_beta