For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post


Including CPU-CPU games from previous DivP to form Classical only DivP

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations except as biased random().
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4-5. 4. 5.
1. StockfishClassical 202007311012 58.554% 11.308% 69.862% 12.215% 17.923% 7.897% 10.026%
2. Komodo 2576.00 21.775% 44.752% 66.527% 27.918% 5.555% 4.673% 0.882%
3. Fire 8_beta 18.970% 39.215% 58.185% 35.067% 6.748% 5.639% 1.109%
4. LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 0.129% 1.930% 2.059% 12.084% 85.857% 51.279% 34.578%
5. Ethereal 12.43 0.572% 2.795% 3.367% 12.716% 83.917% 30.512% 53.405%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Komodo 2576.00 32.069%
2. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Fire 8_beta 25.103%
3. Komodo 2576.00 Fire 8_beta 13.944%
4. Fire 8_beta Komodo 2576.00 12.351%
5. Komodo 2576.00 StockfishClassical 202007311012 6.247%
6. Fire 8_beta StockfishClassical 202007311012 4.865%
7. Fire 8_beta Ethereal 12.43 1.509%
8. Komodo 2576.00 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 0.975%
9. StockfishClassical 202007311012 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 0.706%
10. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Ethereal 12.43 0.676%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Komodo 2576.00 StockfishClassical 202007311012 38.316%
2. Fire 8_beta StockfishClassical 202007311012 29.968%
3. Fire 8_beta Komodo 2576.00 26.295%
4. Ethereal 12.43 Fire 8_beta 1.594%
5. Komodo 2576.00 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 0.988%
6. Ethereal 12.43 Komodo 2576.00 0.928%
7. Ethereal 12.43 StockfishClassical 202007311012 0.840%
8. LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 StockfishClassical 202007311012 0.738%
9. Fire 8_beta LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 0.328%
10. Ethereal 12.43 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 0.005%

Speculate StockfishClassical 202007311012 – Komodo 2576.00 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4-5. 4. 5.
1. StockfishClassical 202007311012 82.852% 7.270% 90.122% 4.612% 5.266% 2.659% 2.607%
2. Fire 8_beta 12.173% 52.029% 64.202% 29.066% 6.732% 5.456% 1.276%
3. Komodo 2576.00 4.356% 34.109% 38.465% 46.452% 15.083% 11.942% 3.141%
4. LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 0.203% 3.010% 3.213% 11.492% 85.295% 52.811% 32.484%
5. Ethereal 12.43 0.416% 3.582% 3.998% 8.378% 87.624% 27.132% 60.492%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Fire 8_beta 49.056%
2. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Komodo 2576.00 30.160%
3. Fire 8_beta StockfishClassical 202007311012 5.688%
4. Fire 8_beta Komodo 2576.00 3.862%
5. Komodo 2576.00 Fire 8_beta 2.766%
6. StockfishClassical 202007311012 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 2.266%
7. Fire 8_beta Ethereal 12.43 2.097%
8. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Ethereal 12.43 1.370%
9. Komodo 2576.00 StockfishClassical 202007311012 1.272%
10. Fire 8_beta LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 0.526%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 8_beta StockfishClassical 202007311012 54.744%
2. Komodo 2576.00 StockfishClassical 202007311012 31.432%
3. Fire 8_beta Komodo 2576.00 6.628%
4. LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 StockfishClassical 202007311012 2.342%
5. Ethereal 12.43 Fire 8_beta 2.185%
6. Ethereal 12.43 StockfishClassical 202007311012 1.604%
7. Fire 8_beta LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 0.645%
8. Komodo 2576.00 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 0.211%
9. Ethereal 12.43 Komodo 2576.00 0.194%
10. Ethereal 12.43 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 0.015%

Speculate StockfishClassical 202007311012 – Komodo 2576.00 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4-5. 4. 5.
1. StockfishClassical 202007311012 53.572% 11.562% 65.134% 13.966% 20.900% 9.372% 11.528%
2. Komodo 2576.00 23.487% 50.042% 73.529% 23.428% 3.043% 2.777% 0.266%
3. Fire 8_beta 22.157% 33.992% 56.149% 36.828% 7.023% 5.932% 1.091%
4. LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 0.107% 1.691% 1.798% 12.280% 85.922% 50.266% 35.656%
5. Ethereal 12.43 0.677% 2.713% 3.390% 13.498% 83.112% 31.653% 51.459%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Komodo 2576.00 33.825%
2. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Fire 8_beta 18.888%
3. Fire 8_beta Komodo 2576.00 15.748%
4. Komodo 2576.00 Fire 8_beta 14.957%
5. Komodo 2576.00 StockfishClassical 202007311012 6.691%
6. Fire 8_beta StockfishClassical 202007311012 4.706%
7. Fire 8_beta Ethereal 12.43 1.482%
8. Komodo 2576.00 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 1.127%
9. Komodo 2576.00 Ethereal 12.43 0.712%
10. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Ethereal 12.43 0.518%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Komodo 2576.00 StockfishClassical 202007311012 40.516%
2. Fire 8_beta Komodo 2576.00 30.705%
3. Fire 8_beta StockfishClassical 202007311012 23.594%
4. Ethereal 12.43 Fire 8_beta 1.565%
5. Ethereal 12.43 Komodo 2576.00 1.170%
6. Komodo 2576.00 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 1.138%
7. Ethereal 12.43 StockfishClassical 202007311012 0.652%
8. LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 StockfishClassical 202007311012 0.372%
9. Fire 8_beta LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 0.285%
10. Ethereal 12.43 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 0.003%

Speculate StockfishClassical 202007311012 – Komodo 2576.00 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4-5. 4. 5.
1. Komodo 2576.00 66.585% 29.868% 96.453% 3.356% 0.191% 0.187% 0.004%
2. Fire 8_beta 11.478% 45.737% 57.215% 36.890% 5.895% 4.900% 0.995%
3. StockfishClassical 202007311012 21.671% 20.916% 42.587% 18.265% 39.148% 11.116% 28.032%
4. LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 0.016% 1.720% 1.736% 15.103% 83.161% 51.294% 31.867%
5. Ethereal 12.43 0.250% 1.759% 2.009% 26.386% 71.605% 32.503% 39.102%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Komodo 2576.00 Fire 8_beta 43.431%
2. Komodo 2576.00 StockfishClassical 202007311012 19.924%
3. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Komodo 2576.00 19.349%
4. Fire 8_beta Komodo 2576.00 10.306%
5. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Fire 8_beta 2.287%
6. Komodo 2576.00 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 1.685%
7. Komodo 2576.00 Ethereal 12.43 1.545%
8. Fire 8_beta StockfishClassical 202007311012 0.958%
9. Ethereal 12.43 Komodo 2576.00 0.209%
10. Fire 8_beta Ethereal 12.43 0.199%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 8_beta Komodo 2576.00 53.737%
2. Komodo 2576.00 StockfishClassical 202007311012 39.273%
3. Fire 8_beta StockfishClassical 202007311012 3.245%
4. Ethereal 12.43 Komodo 2576.00 1.754%
5. Komodo 2576.00 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 1.689%
6. Ethereal 12.43 Fire 8_beta 0.210%
7. Ethereal 12.43 StockfishClassical 202007311012 0.045%
8. LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 StockfishClassical 202007311012 0.024%
9. Fire 8_beta LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 0.023%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4
1 StockfishClassical 202007311012 1.0 9.75 2.28 1.98 54 18 11 9
2 LCZeroCPU v0.26.0-n703596/Latest/v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 1.0 8.02 1.72 2.95 14 27 24 20
3 Komodo 2570.00/2576.00 0.0 7.83 1.86 3.07 15 22 23 21
4 Fire 8_beta 0.0 7.27 1.83 3.46 9 17 21 25
5 Ethereal 12.28/12.42/12.43 0.0 7.14 1.84 3.55 8 16 21 25

Expected start time based on estimate of 3.65h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-09-28 10:01 4 Komodo 2576.00 StockfishClassical 202007311012
2020-09-28 13:40 5 StockfishClassical 202007311012 Fire 8_beta
2020-09-28 17:18 6 Fire 8_beta StockfishClassical 202007311012
2020-09-28 20:57 7 StockfishClassical 202007311012 Ethereal 12.43
2020-09-29 00:36 8 Ethereal 12.43 StockfishClassical 202007311012
2020-09-29 04:15 9 StockfishClassical 202007311012 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810
2020-09-29 07:54 10 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 StockfishClassical 202007311012
2020-09-29 11:33 11 StockfishClassical 202007311012 Komodo 2576.00
2020-09-29 15:11 12 Komodo 2576.00 StockfishClassical 202007311012
2020-09-29 18:50 13 StockfishClassical 202007311012 Fire 8_beta
2020-09-29 22:29 14 Fire 8_beta StockfishClassical 202007311012
2020-09-30 02:08 15 StockfishClassical 202007311012 Ethereal 12.43
2020-09-30 05:47 16 Ethereal 12.43 StockfishClassical 202007311012