For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post


Including CPU-CPU games from previous DivP to form Classical only DivP

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations except as biased random().
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4-5. 4. 5.
1. StockfishClassical 202007311012 80.059% 4.024% 84.083% 10.995% 4.922% 4.656% 0.266%
2. Komodo 2576.00 7.491% 89.410% 96.901% 3.099%
3. Fire 8_beta 11.826% 4.195% 16.021% 75.921% 8.058% 6.249% 1.809%
4. Ethereal 12.43 0.624% 2.371% 2.995% 9.140% 87.865% 42.566% 45.299%
5. LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 0.845% 99.155% 46.529% 52.626%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Komodo 2576.00 78.362%
2. Fire 8_beta Komodo 2576.00 10.424%
3. Komodo 2576.00 StockfishClassical 202007311012 2.627%
4. Komodo 2576.00 Fire 8_beta 2.498%
5. Komodo 2576.00 Ethereal 12.43 2.366%
6. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Fire 8_beta 1.697%
7. Fire 8_beta StockfishClassical 202007311012 1.397%
8. Ethereal 12.43 Komodo 2576.00 0.624%
9. Fire 8_beta Ethereal 12.43 0.005%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Komodo 2576.00 StockfishClassical 202007311012 80.989%
2. Fire 8_beta Komodo 2576.00 12.922%
3. Fire 8_beta StockfishClassical 202007311012 3.094%
4. Ethereal 12.43 Komodo 2576.00 2.990%
5. Ethereal 12.43 Fire 8_beta 0.005%

Speculate StockfishClassical 202007311012 – Fire 8_beta 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4-5. 4. 5.
1. StockfishClassical 202007311012 98.104% 0.611% 98.715% 1.203% 0.082% 0.082%
2. Komodo 2576.00 1.249% 98.751% 100.000%
3. Fire 8_beta 0.638% 0.638% 76.125% 23.237% 14.009% 9.228%
4. LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 4.191% 95.809% 78.802% 17.007%
5. Ethereal 12.43 0.647% 0.647% 18.481% 80.872% 7.107% 73.765%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Komodo 2576.00 98.104%
2. Ethereal 12.43 Komodo 2576.00 0.647%
3. Komodo 2576.00 Fire 8_beta 0.638%
4. Komodo 2576.00 StockfishClassical 202007311012 0.611%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Komodo 2576.00 StockfishClassical 202007311012 98.715%
2. Ethereal 12.43 Komodo 2576.00 0.647%
3. Fire 8_beta Komodo 2576.00 0.638%

Speculate StockfishClassical 202007311012 – Fire 8_beta 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4-5. 4. 5.
1. StockfishClassical 202007311012 79.810% 4.573% 84.383% 9.997% 5.620% 5.518% 0.102%
2. Komodo 2576.00 10.119% 87.293% 97.412% 2.588%
3. Fire 8_beta 9.393% 4.797% 14.190% 81.104% 4.706% 4.706%
4. Ethereal 12.43 0.678% 3.337% 4.015% 6.311% 89.674% 53.308% 36.366%
5. LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 100.000% 36.468% 63.532%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Komodo 2576.00 78.427%
2. Fire 8_beta Komodo 2576.00 8.188%
3. Komodo 2576.00 Fire 8_beta 3.414%
4. Komodo 2576.00 StockfishClassical 202007311012 3.368%
5. Komodo 2576.00 Ethereal 12.43 3.337%
6. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Fire 8_beta 1.383%
7. Fire 8_beta StockfishClassical 202007311012 1.205%
8. Ethereal 12.43 Komodo 2576.00 0.678%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Komodo 2576.00 StockfishClassical 202007311012 81.795%
2. Fire 8_beta Komodo 2576.00 11.602%
3. Ethereal 12.43 Komodo 2576.00 4.015%
4. Fire 8_beta StockfishClassical 202007311012 2.588%

Speculate StockfishClassical 202007311012 – Fire 8_beta 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4-5. 4. 5.
1. Fire 8_beta 78.308% 11.100% 89.408% 10.592%
2. Komodo 2576.00 1.500% 79.115% 80.615% 19.385%
3. StockfishClassical 202007311012 20.113% 9.648% 29.761% 56.820% 13.419% 10.709% 2.710%
4. LCZeroCPU v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 100.000% 56.459% 43.541%
5. Ethereal 12.43 0.079% 0.137% 0.216% 13.203% 86.581% 32.832% 53.749%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Fire 8_beta Komodo 2576.00 69.259%
2. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Fire 8_beta 10.336%
3. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Komodo 2576.00 9.777%
4. Fire 8_beta StockfishClassical 202007311012 8.912%
5. Komodo 2576.00 Fire 8_beta 0.764%
6. Komodo 2576.00 StockfishClassical 202007311012 0.736%
7. Fire 8_beta Ethereal 12.43 0.137%
8. Ethereal 12.43 Komodo 2576.00 0.079%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Fire 8_beta Komodo 2576.00 70.023%
2. Fire 8_beta StockfishClassical 202007311012 19.248%
3. Komodo 2576.00 StockfishClassical 202007311012 10.513%
4. Ethereal 12.43 Fire 8_beta 0.137%
5. Ethereal 12.43 Komodo 2576.00 0.079%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4
1 StockfishClassical 202007311012 6.5 8.83 0.89 2.17 28 39 23 9
2 Komodo 2570.00/2576.00 2.0 8.31 1.55 2.80 25 20 22 20
3 LCZeroCPU v0.26.0-n703596/Latest/v0.26.2-rc1_n703810 2.0 8.20 1.57 2.89 23 18 21 21
4 Ethereal 12.28/12.42/12.43 1.0 7.55 1.69 3.40 15 13 18 25
5 Fire 8_beta 0.5 7.11 1.67 3.74 10 10 16 25

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.71h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-09-29 10:21 14 Fire 8_beta StockfishClassical 202007311012
2020-09-29 13:04 15 StockfishClassical 202007311012 Ethereal 12.43
2020-09-29 15:46 16 Ethereal 12.43 StockfishClassical 202007311012