For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 40.800% 29.682% 70.482% 21.432% 8.086%
2. Ethereal 12.75 32.202% 33.091% 65.293% 26.137% 8.570%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 23.628% 28.356% 51.984% 32.479% 15.537%
4. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 3.370% 8.871% 12.241% 19.952% 67.807%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Ethereal 12.75 21.495%
2. Ethereal 12.75 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 16.974%
3. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 15.912%
4. Ethereal 12.75 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 11.487%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 11.358%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.75 10.533%
7. Ethereal 12.75 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 3.741%
8. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 3.393%
9. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 1.737%
10. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 1.350%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Ethereal 12.75 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 38.469%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 27.270%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.75 22.020%
4. Ethereal 12.75 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 4.804%
5. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 4.743%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 2.694%

Speculate LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 – SlowChess Blitz 2.4 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 54.005% 29.881% 83.886% 14.680% 1.434%
2. Ethereal 12.75 25.528% 36.612% 62.140% 31.852% 6.008%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 19.743% 29.655% 49.398% 38.667% 11.935%
4. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 0.724% 3.852% 4.576% 14.801% 80.623%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Ethereal 12.75 29.179%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 22.052%
3. Ethereal 12.75 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 17.386%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 12.162%
5. Ethereal 12.75 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 7.448%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.75 7.197%
7. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 2.774%
8. Ethereal 12.75 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 0.694%
9. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 0.384%
10. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 0.333%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Ethereal 12.75 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 46.565%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 34.214%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.75 14.645%
4. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 3.107%
5. Ethereal 12.75 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 0.930%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 0.539%

Speculate LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 – SlowChess Blitz 2.4 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 37.381% 29.744% 67.125% 23.725% 9.150%
2. Ethereal 12.75 33.781% 31.972% 65.753% 24.928% 9.319%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 25.009% 28.287% 53.296% 29.811% 16.893%
4. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 3.829% 9.997% 13.826% 21.536% 64.638%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Ethereal 12.75 19.355%
2. Ethereal 12.75 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 16.723%
3. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 14.357%
4. Ethereal 12.75 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 12.816%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 11.484%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.75 11.439%
7. Ethereal 12.75 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 4.242%
8. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 3.669%
9. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 2.086%
10. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 1.537%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Ethereal 12.75 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 36.078%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 25.841%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.75 24.255%
4. Ethereal 12.75 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 5.420%
5. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 5.206%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 3.200%

Speculate LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 – SlowChess Blitz 2.4 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4.
1. Ethereal 12.75 38.071% 28.305% 66.376% 20.871% 12.753%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 26.736% 26.137% 52.873% 25.204% 21.923%
3. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 23.082% 24.743% 47.825% 25.483% 26.692%
4. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 12.111% 20.815% 32.926% 28.442% 38.632%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Ethereal 12.75 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 14.286%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.75 13.209%
3. Ethereal 12.75 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 12.085%
4. Ethereal 12.75 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 11.700%
5. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Ethereal 12.75 11.218%
6. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 8.264%
7. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 8.012%
8. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 5.515%
9. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 4.646%
10. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 Ethereal 12.75 3.878%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.75 27.495%
2. Ethereal 12.75 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 23.303%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 16.276%
4. Ethereal 12.75 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 15.578%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 9.102%
6. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 8.246%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3
1 LCZero v0.26.0_sv-t60-4229-mlh_opt2/v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100/v0.26.3-rc1_T60.SV.JH.92-190/v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-270/v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 3.0 10.23 1.47 1.76 50 29 16
2 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0/v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 3.0 9.31 1.51 2.33 24 32 31
3 Ethereal 12.28/12.42/12.43/12.75 3.5 9.23 1.52 2.39 23 31 32
4 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25/Blitz Classic 2.26 16GiB/Blitz Classic 2.26/Blitz 2.4 2.5 7.23 1.50 3.52 3 9 21

Expected start time based on estimate of 0.99h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-11-20 15:05 14 Ethereal 12.75 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-20 16:04 15 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-20 17:04 16 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Ethereal 12.75
2020-11-20 18:03 17 Ethereal 12.75 SlowChess Blitz 2.4
2020-11-20 19:02 18 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-20 20:01 19 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-20 21:01 20 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.75
2020-11-20 22:00 21 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.4
2020-11-20 22:59 22 Ethereal 12.75 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-20 23:58 23 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 Ethereal 12.75
2020-11-21 00:58 24 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-21 01:57 25 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 SlowChess Blitz 2.4
2020-11-21 02:56 26 Ethereal 12.75 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-21 03:55 27 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-21 04:55 28 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Ethereal 12.75
2020-11-21 05:54 29 Ethereal 12.75 SlowChess Blitz 2.4
2020-11-21 06:53 30 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-21 07:52 31 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-21 08:51 32 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.75
2020-11-21 09:51 33 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.4
2020-11-21 10:50 34 Ethereal 12.75 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-21 11:49 35 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 Ethereal 12.75
2020-11-21 12:48 36 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0