For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations except as biased random().
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 47.368% 27.137% 74.505% 16.799% 8.696%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 25.054% 28.849% 53.903% 26.306% 19.791%
3. Ethereal 12.75 17.639% 25.527% 43.166% 29.013% 27.821%
4. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 9.939% 18.487% 28.426% 27.882% 43.692%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 19.982%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Ethereal 12.75 16.359%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 13.300%
4. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 11.027%
5. Ethereal 12.75 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 9.137%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.75 6.995%
7. Ethereal 12.75 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 5.801%
8. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 4.759%
9. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 4.700%
10. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 3.066%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 33.282%
2. Ethereal 12.75 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 25.496%
3. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 15.727%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.75 12.796%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 7.825%
6. Ethereal 12.75 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 4.874%

Speculate SlowChess Blitz 2.4 – Ethereal 12.75 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 47.328% 26.199% 73.527% 17.221% 9.252%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 24.396% 27.855% 52.251% 27.248% 20.501%
3. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 20.437% 30.275% 50.712% 29.907% 19.381%
4. Ethereal 12.75 7.839% 15.671% 23.510% 25.624% 50.866%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 19.980%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 19.027%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 12.412%
4. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 10.106%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 8.429%
6. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Ethereal 12.75 8.321%
7. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 6.536%
8. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 Ethereal 12.75 3.795%
9. Ethereal 12.75 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 3.681%
10. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.75 3.555%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 31.439%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 30.086%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 14.965%
4. Ethereal 12.75 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 12.002%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.75 5.847%
6. Ethereal 12.75 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 5.661%

Speculate SlowChess Blitz 2.4 – Ethereal 12.75 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 48.439% 26.768% 75.207% 16.017% 8.776%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 25.267% 29.143% 54.410% 25.745% 19.845%
3. Ethereal 12.75 16.966% 25.964% 42.930% 30.210% 26.860%
4. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 9.328% 18.125% 27.453% 28.028% 44.519%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 20.787%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Ethereal 12.75 16.828%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 13.600%
4. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 10.824%
5. Ethereal 12.75 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 8.758%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.75 7.034%
7. Ethereal 12.75 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 5.540%
8. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 4.633%
9. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 4.410%
10. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 2.816%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 34.387%
2. Ethereal 12.75 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 25.586%
3. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 15.234%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.75 12.574%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 7.449%
6. Ethereal 12.75 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 4.770%

Speculate SlowChess Blitz 2.4 – Ethereal 12.75 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 43.263% 29.103% 72.366% 20.125% 7.509%
2. Ethereal 12.75 31.095% 34.671% 65.766% 25.884% 8.350%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 22.436% 27.369% 49.805% 32.867% 17.328%
4. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 3.206% 8.857% 12.063% 21.124% 66.813%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Ethereal 12.75 23.655%
2. Ethereal 12.75 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 16.947%
3. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 15.883%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 10.808%
5. Ethereal 12.75 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 10.619%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.75 10.025%
7. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 3.725%
8. Ethereal 12.75 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 3.529%
9. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 1.603%
10. SlowChess Blitz 2.4 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 1.348%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Ethereal 12.75 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 40.602%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 26.691%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.75 20.644%
4. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 5.073%
5. Ethereal 12.75 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 4.520%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 2.470%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3
1 LCZero v0.26.0_sv-t60-4229-mlh_opt2/v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100/v0.26.3-rc1_T60.SV.JH.92-190/v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-270/v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 2.5 10.35 1.53 1.69 55 26 13
2 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0/v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 2.5 9.21 1.58 2.37 24 32 28
3 Ethereal 12.28/12.42/12.43/12.75 2.5 8.66 1.59 2.71 15 27 31
4 SlowChess Blitz Classic 2.25/Blitz Classic 2.26 16GiB/Blitz Classic 2.26/Blitz 2.4 2.5 7.78 1.56 3.23 6 15 28

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.03h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-11-20 13:37 12 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-20 14:39 13 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 SlowChess Blitz 2.4
2020-11-20 15:41 14 Ethereal 12.75 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-20 16:43 15 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-20 17:45 16 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Ethereal 12.75
2020-11-20 18:47 17 Ethereal 12.75 SlowChess Blitz 2.4
2020-11-20 19:49 18 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-20 20:51 19 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-20 21:53 20 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.75
2020-11-20 22:55 21 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.4
2020-11-20 23:57 22 Ethereal 12.75 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-21 00:59 23 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 Ethereal 12.75
2020-11-21 02:01 24 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-21 03:03 25 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 SlowChess Blitz 2.4
2020-11-21 04:05 26 Ethereal 12.75 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-21 05:07 27 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-21 06:09 28 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Ethereal 12.75
2020-11-21 07:11 29 Ethereal 12.75 SlowChess Blitz 2.4
2020-11-21 08:13 30 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-21 09:15 31 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-21 10:17 32 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal 12.75
2020-11-21 11:19 33 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 SlowChess Blitz 2.4
2020-11-21 12:21 34 Ethereal 12.75 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-21 13:23 35 SlowChess Blitz 2.4 Ethereal 12.75
2020-11-21 14:25 36 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0