Nov 21 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3-4. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 32.101% 27.122% 59.223% 40.777% 23.089% 17.688%
2. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 26.914% 26.052% 52.966% 47.034% 25.251% 21.783%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 26.380% 26.373% 52.753% 47.247% 25.015% 22.232%
4. Komodo 14.1 14.605% 20.453% 35.058% 64.942% 26.645% 38.297%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 12.707%
2. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 11.622%
3. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 11.144%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 10.698%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 9.990%
6. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 8.781%
7. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1 8.250%
8. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1 6.511%
9. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 5.692%
10. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 5.510%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 22.766%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 22.697%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 19.479%
4. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 13.760%
5. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 10.721%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 10.577%

Speculate AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 – Komodo 14.1 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3-4. 3. 4.
1. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 39.786% 29.430% 69.216% 30.784% 20.593% 10.191%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 29.613% 28.772% 58.385% 41.615% 25.495% 16.120%
3. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 23.812% 27.934% 51.746% 48.254% 28.531% 19.723%
4. Komodo 14.1 6.789% 13.864% 20.653% 79.347% 25.381% 53.966%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 16.691%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 16.294%
3. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 16.169%
4. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 10.721%
5. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 10.042%
6. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 9.430%
7. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 6.801%
8. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1 4.014%
9. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1 3.049%
10. Komodo 14.1 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 2.540%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 32.463%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 27.412%
3. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 19.472%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 9.341%
5. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 6.450%
6. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 4.862%

Speculate AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 – Komodo 14.1 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3-4. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 32.425% 27.109% 59.534% 40.466% 23.022% 17.444%
2. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 27.137% 26.177% 53.314% 46.686% 24.955% 21.731%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 25.924% 26.053% 51.977% 48.023% 25.325% 22.698%
4. Komodo 14.1 14.514% 20.661% 35.175% 64.825% 26.698% 38.127%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 12.614%
2. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 11.895%
3. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 11.409%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 10.559%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 9.725%
6. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 8.623%
7. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1 8.402%
8. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1 6.619%
9. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 5.640%
10. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 5.489%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 23.304%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 22.339%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 19.182%
4. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 13.891%
5. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 10.828%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 10.456%

Speculate AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 – Komodo 14.1 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3-4. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 31.950% 26.804% 58.754% 41.246% 22.979% 18.267%
2. Komodo 14.1 26.040% 26.989% 53.029% 46.971% 25.761% 21.210%
3. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 27.281% 25.679% 52.960% 47.040% 24.324% 22.716%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 14.729% 20.528% 35.257% 64.743% 26.936% 37.807%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1 12.714%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 11.557%
3. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 11.524%
4. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1 10.295%
5. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 10.252%
6. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 8.401%
7. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 7.679%
8. Komodo 14.1 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 7.387%
9. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 5.721%
10. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 5.462%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 23.081%
2. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 22.966%
3. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 18.696%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 12.707%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 11.367%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 11.183%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3
1 Stockfish 2020071122/Latest/20200816_nn-82215d0fd0df/202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df/128GiB_202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df/202009282242_nn-baeb9ef2d183/202010181354_nn-eba324f53044/2020102823_nn-2eb2e0707c2b/202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 0.0 12.85 2.08 2.10 37 29 21
2 LCZero v0.26.0_sv-t60-4229-mlh_opt2/v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100/v0.26.3-rc1_T60.SV.JH.92-190/v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-270/v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 0.5 12.72 2.10 2.16 35 29 22
3 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0/v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 1.0 11.47 2.16 2.76 17 23 29
4 Komodo 2570.00/2576.00/2602.00/14.1 0.5 10.96 2.14 2.99 12 19 28

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.19h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-11-21 19:56 4 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-21 21:08 5 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-21 22:19 6 Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-21 23:30 7 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-22 00:42 8 Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-22 01:53 9 Komodo 14.1 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-22 03:04 10 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-22 04:16 11 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-22 05:27 12 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-22 06:39 13 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-22 07:50 14 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-22 09:01 15 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-22 10:13 16 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-22 11:24 17 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-22 12:35 18 Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-22 13:47 19 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-22 14:58 20 Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-22 16:09 21 Komodo 14.1 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-22 17:21 22 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-22 18:32 23 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-22 19:44 24 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-22 20:55 25 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-22 22:06 26 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-22 23:18 27 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-23 00:29 28 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-23 01:40 29 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-23 02:52 30 Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-23 04:03 31 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-23 05:14 32 Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-23 06:26 33 Komodo 14.1 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-23 07:37 34 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-23 08:49 35 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-23 10:00 36 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-23 11:11 37 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-23 12:23 38 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-23 13:34 39 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-23 14:45 40 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-23 15:57 41 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-23 17:08 42 Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-23 18:20 43 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-23 19:31 44 Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-23 20:42 45 Komodo 14.1 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-23 21:54 46 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-23 23:05 47 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-24 00:16 48 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1
Posted inBayesElo