Nov 22 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3-4. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 50.719% 35.377% 86.096% 13.904% 12.421% 1.483%
2. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 40.408% 39.442% 79.850% 20.150% 17.810% 2.340%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 8.274% 22.190% 30.464% 69.536% 55.250% 14.286%
4. Komodo 14.1 0.599% 2.991% 3.590% 96.410% 14.519% 81.891%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 34.924%
2. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 31.317%
3. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 14.133%
4. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 7.961%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 4.277%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 3.798%
7. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1 1.662%
8. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1 1.130%
9. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 0.262%
10. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 0.241%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 66.241%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 17.931%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 12.238%
4. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 1.924%
5. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 1.371%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 0.295%

Speculate AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 – Komodo 14.1 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3-4. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 48.584% 33.748% 82.332% 17.668% 16.664% 1.004%
2. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 37.219% 36.625% 73.844% 26.156% 24.456% 1.700%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 14.038% 28.712% 42.750% 57.250% 53.550% 3.700%
4. Komodo 14.1 0.159% 0.915% 1.074% 98.926% 5.330% 93.596%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 29.232%
2. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 27.120%
3. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 18.853%
4. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 9.821%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 7.352%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 6.548%
7. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1 0.499%
8. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1 0.278%
9. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 0.138%
10. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 0.080%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 56.352%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 25.401%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 17.173%
4. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 0.579%
5. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 0.319%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 0.176%

Speculate AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 – Komodo 14.1 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3-4. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 50.801% 35.824% 86.625% 13.375% 11.867% 1.508%
2. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 40.689% 39.986% 80.675% 19.325% 16.926% 2.399%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 7.983% 21.395% 29.378% 70.622% 56.846% 13.776%
4. Komodo 14.1 0.527% 2.795% 3.322% 96.678% 14.361% 82.317%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 35.628%
2. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 31.937%
3. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 13.542%
4. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 7.764%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 4.130%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 3.677%
7. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1 1.631%
8. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1 0.988%
9. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 0.228%
10. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 0.210%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 67.565%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 17.219%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 11.894%
4. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 1.841%
5. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 1.216%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 0.265%

Speculate AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 – Komodo 14.1 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3-4. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 51.588% 37.299% 88.887% 11.113% 9.118% 1.995%
2. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 42.620% 41.303% 83.923% 16.077% 12.828% 3.249%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 4.146% 14.126% 18.272% 81.728% 46.287% 35.441%
4. Komodo 14.1 1.646% 7.272% 8.918% 91.082% 31.767% 59.315%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 38.588%
2. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 34.676%
3. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 8.746%
4. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 5.168%
5. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1 4.254%
6. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1 2.776%
7. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 2.058%
8. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 1.846%
9. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 0.777%
10. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 0.657%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 73.264%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 10.592%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 7.226%
4. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 5.031%
5. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 3.433%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 0.454%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3
1 LCZero v0.26.0_sv-t60-4229-mlh_opt2/v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100/v0.26.3-rc1_T60.SV.JH.92-190/v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-270/v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 4.5 13.57 1.77 1.78 45 36 16
2 Stockfish 2020071122/Latest/20200816_nn-82215d0fd0df/202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df/128GiB_202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df/202009282242_nn-baeb9ef2d183/202010181354_nn-eba324f53044/2020102823_nn-2eb2e0707c2b/202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 4.0 13.56 1.77 1.78 45 37 15
3 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0/v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 3.5 11.28 1.81 2.87 9 21 45
4 Komodo 2570.00/2576.00/2602.00/14.1 2.0 9.60 1.81 3.57 2 7 24

Expected start time based on estimate of 0.98h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-11-22 07:00 16 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-22 07:58 17 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-22 08:57 18 Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-22 09:55 19 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-22 10:54 20 Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-22 11:52 21 Komodo 14.1 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-22 12:51 22 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-22 13:49 23 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-22 14:48 24 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-22 15:46 25 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-22 16:45 26 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-22 17:43 27 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-22 18:42 28 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-22 19:40 29 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-22 20:39 30 Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-22 21:37 31 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-22 22:36 32 Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-22 23:34 33 Komodo 14.1 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-23 00:33 34 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-23 01:31 35 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-23 02:30 36 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-23 03:28 37 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-23 04:27 38 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-23 05:25 39 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-23 06:24 40 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-23 07:22 41 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-23 08:21 42 Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-23 09:19 43 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-23 10:18 44 Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-23 11:16 45 Komodo 14.1 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-23 12:15 46 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-23 13:13 47 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-23 14:12 48 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1
Posted inBayesElo