For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3-4. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 77.276% 19.668% 96.944% 3.056% 2.685% 0.371%
2. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 19.153% 53.061% 72.214% 27.786% 21.598% 6.188%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 2.816% 20.669% 23.485% 76.515% 47.221% 29.294%
4. Komodo 14.1 0.755% 6.602% 7.357% 92.643% 28.496% 64.147%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 51.840%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 19.634%
3. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 17.510%
4. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1 5.802%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 1.604%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 1.075%
7. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.980%
8. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1 0.663%
9. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 0.554%
10. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 0.146%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 69.350%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 21.238%
3. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 6.356%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 2.055%
5. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 0.809%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 0.192%

Speculate AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 – LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3-4. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 62.793% 27.688% 90.481% 9.519% 8.265% 1.254%
2. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 25.693% 37.460% 63.153% 36.847% 29.367% 7.480%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 10.352% 29.332% 39.684% 60.316% 42.613% 17.703%
4. Komodo 14.1 1.162% 5.520% 6.682% 93.318% 19.755% 73.563%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 33.289%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 25.363%
3. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 20.952%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 6.043%
5. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1 4.141%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 3.916%
7. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 3.755%
8. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1 0.986%
9. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 0.693%
10. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 0.393%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 54.241%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 31.406%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 7.671%
4. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 4.834%
5. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 1.241%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 0.607%

Speculate AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 – LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3-4. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 77.694% 19.728% 97.422% 2.578% 2.301% 0.277%
2. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 19.444% 52.928% 72.372% 27.628% 21.405% 6.223%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 2.038% 20.874% 22.912% 77.088% 48.535% 28.553%
4. Komodo 14.1 0.824% 6.470% 7.294% 92.706% 27.759% 64.947%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 51.920%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 20.046%
3. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 18.032%
4. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1 5.728%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 1.103%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 0.831%
7. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.774%
8. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1 0.638%
9. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 0.593%
10. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 0.177%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 69.952%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 21.149%
3. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 6.321%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 1.605%
5. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 0.815%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 0.158%

Speculate AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 – LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3-4. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 87.677% 11.739% 99.416% 0.584% 0.540% 0.044%
2. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 11.661% 68.795% 80.456% 19.544% 15.106% 4.438%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.281% 12.071% 12.352% 87.648% 45.933% 41.715%
4. Komodo 14.1 0.381% 7.395% 7.776% 92.224% 38.421% 53.803%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 68.587%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 11.958%
3. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 11.304%
4. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1 7.132%
5. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 0.289%
6. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1 0.250%
7. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 0.146%
8. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 0.122%
9. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.107%
10. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 0.086%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 79.891%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 12.104%
3. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 7.421%
4. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 0.336%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 0.229%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 0.019%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3
1 LCZero v0.26.0_sv-t60-4229-mlh_opt2/v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100/v0.26.3-rc1_T60.SV.JH.92-190/v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-270/v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 7.0 14.00 1.55 1.48 63 27 8
2 Stockfish 2020071122/Latest/20200816_nn-82215d0fd0df/202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df/128GiB_202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df/202009282242_nn-baeb9ef2d183/202010181354_nn-eba324f53044/2020102823_nn-2eb2e0707c2b/202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 5.5 12.89 1.55 2.02 29 46 18
3 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0/v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 5.0 10.87 1.58 3.09 5 16 42
4 Komodo 2570.00/2576.00/2602.00/14.1 4.5 10.24 1.56 3.41 2 10 32

Expected start time based on estimate of 0.99h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-11-22 15:07 24 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-22 16:07 25 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-22 17:06 26 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-22 18:05 27 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-22 19:05 28 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-22 20:04 29 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-22 21:04 30 Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-22 22:03 31 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-22 23:02 32 Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-23 00:02 33 Komodo 14.1 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-23 01:01 34 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-23 02:00 35 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-23 03:00 36 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-23 03:59 37 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-23 04:58 38 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-23 05:58 39 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-23 06:57 40 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-23 07:57 41 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-23 08:56 42 Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-23 09:55 43 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-23 10:55 44 Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-23 11:54 45 Komodo 14.1 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-23 12:53 46 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-23 13:53 47 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-23 14:52 48 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1