Nov 22 2020
Off

For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3-4. 3. 4.
1. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 43.233% 28.991% 72.224% 27.776% 18.800% 8.976%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 28.666% 28.977% 57.643% 42.357% 26.501% 15.856%
3. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 21.318% 28.230% 49.548% 50.452% 29.761% 20.691%
4. Komodo 14.1 6.783% 13.802% 20.585% 79.415% 24.938% 54.477%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 18.030%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 17.975%
3. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 16.298%
4. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 10.058%
5. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 8.570%
6. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 8.484%
7. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 7.228%
8. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1 3.884%
9. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1 2.690%
10. Komodo 14.1 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 2.635%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 34.273%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 28.088%
3. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 17.054%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 9.863%
5. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 6.316%
6. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 4.406%

Speculate Komodo 14.1 – AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3-4. 3. 4.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 31.493% 26.602% 58.095% 41.905% 23.486% 18.419%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 29.957% 27.350% 57.307% 42.693% 23.676% 19.017%
3. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 24.207% 25.482% 49.689% 50.311% 25.796% 24.515%
4. Komodo 14.1 14.343% 20.566% 34.909% 65.091% 27.042% 38.049%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 13.457%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 11.556%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 11.402%
4. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 10.191%
5. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 10.007%
6. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 8.478%
7. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1 7.845%
8. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 6.999%
9. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1 5.722%
10. Komodo 14.1 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 5.415%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 24.859%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 20.198%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 20.034%
4. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 13.038%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 12.414%
6. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 9.457%

Speculate Komodo 14.1 – AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3-4. 3. 4.
1. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 43.817% 29.609% 73.426% 26.574% 18.738% 7.836%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 28.889% 29.186% 58.075% 41.925% 26.415% 15.510%
3. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 21.579% 28.112% 49.691% 50.309% 29.876% 20.433%
4. Komodo 14.1 5.715% 13.093% 18.808% 81.192% 24.971% 56.221%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 18.311%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 18.297%
3. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 17.018%
4. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 10.303%
5. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 8.818%
6. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 8.445%
7. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 7.209%
8. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1 3.426%
9. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1 2.458%
10. Komodo 14.1 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 2.288%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 35.329%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 28.600%
3. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 17.263%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 9.497%
5. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 5.483%
6. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 3.828%

Speculate Komodo 14.1 – AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3-4. 3. 4.
1. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 57.458% 27.261% 84.719% 15.281% 12.826% 2.455%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 23.958% 33.102% 57.060% 42.940% 30.862% 12.078%
3. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 16.699% 31.476% 48.175% 51.825% 35.445% 16.380%
4. Komodo 14.1 1.885% 8.161% 10.046% 89.954% 20.867% 69.087%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 26.109%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 25.157%
3. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 16.880%
4. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 9.601%
5. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 6.331%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 6.192%
7. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 5.876%
8. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1 1.202%
9. Komodo 14.1 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.780%
10. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1 0.767%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 42.989%
2. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 34.758%
3. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 12.207%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1 6.972%
5. Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 1.864%
6. Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 1.210%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3
1 Stockfish 2020071122/Latest/20200816_nn-82215d0fd0df/202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df/128GiB_202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df/202009282242_nn-baeb9ef2d183/202010181354_nn-eba324f53044/2020102823_nn-2eb2e0707c2b/202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 1.5 12.69 1.93 2.16 34 30 23
2 LCZero v0.26.0_sv-t60-4229-mlh_opt2/v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100/v0.26.3-rc1_T60.SV.JH.92-190/v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-270/v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 2.0 12.64 1.95 2.18 33 29 24
3 AllieStein v0.7_dev2-net_15.0/v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 3.0 12.18 2.00 2.43 25 27 28
4 Komodo 2570.00/2576.00/2602.00/14.1 1.5 10.48 1.97 3.24 8 14 25

Expected start time based on estimate of 0.97h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-11-22 01:05 10 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-22 02:03 11 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-22 03:01 12 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-22 03:59 13 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-22 04:57 14 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-22 05:56 15 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-22 06:54 16 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-22 07:52 17 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-22 08:50 18 Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-22 09:48 19 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-22 10:46 20 Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-22 11:44 21 Komodo 14.1 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-22 12:42 22 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-22 13:40 23 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-22 14:38 24 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-22 15:37 25 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-22 16:35 26 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-22 17:33 27 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-22 18:31 28 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-22 19:29 29 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-22 20:27 30 Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-22 21:25 31 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-22 22:23 32 Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-22 23:21 33 Komodo 14.1 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-23 00:19 34 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-23 01:18 35 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-23 02:16 36 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-23 03:14 37 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-23 04:12 38 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-23 05:10 39 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Komodo 14.1
2020-11-23 06:08 40 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-23 07:06 41 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-23 08:04 42 Komodo 14.1 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-23 09:02 43 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-23 10:00 44 Komodo 14.1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-23 10:59 45 Komodo 14.1 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2020-11-23 11:57 46 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-23 12:55 47 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-23 13:53 48 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 Komodo 14.1
Posted inBayesElo