Nov 23 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2. Columns 1.-2. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations except as biased random().
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 1-2. 2. 1-2.
1. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 69.564% 30.436% 100.000%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 30.436% 69.564% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 69.564%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 30.436%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 100.000%

Speculate LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 – Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 1-2. 2. 1-2.
1. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 58.039% 41.961% 100.000%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 41.961% 58.039% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 58.039%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 41.961%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 100.000%

Speculate LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 – Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 1-2. 2. 1-2.
1. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 70.424% 29.576% 100.000%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 29.576% 70.424% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 70.424%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 29.576%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 100.000%

Speculate LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 – Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 1-2. 2. 1-2.
1. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 79.997% 20.003% 100.000%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 20.003% 79.997% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 79.997%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 20.003%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 100.000%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1
1 Stockfish 2020071122/Latest/20200816_nn-82215d0fd0df/202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df/128GiB_202008260719_nn-82215d0fd0df/202009282242_nn-baeb9ef2d183/202010181354_nn-eba324f53044/2020102823_nn-2eb2e0707c2b/202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 1.0 4.59 1.14 1.28 72
2 LCZero v0.26.0_sv-t60-4229-mlh_opt2/v0.26.2-rc1_J92-100/v0.26.3-rc1_T60.SV.JH.92-190/v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-270/v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 0.0 3.41 1.14 1.72 28

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.42h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-11-23 19:08 3 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-23 20:34 4 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-23 21:59 5 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-23 23:24 6 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-24 00:49 7 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-24 02:15 8 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-24 03:40 9 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-24 05:05 10 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-24 06:30 11 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-24 07:55 12 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-24 09:21 13 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-24 10:46 14 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-24 12:11 15 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-24 13:36 16 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-24 15:02 17 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-24 16:27 18 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-24 17:52 19 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-24 19:17 20 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-24 20:42 21 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-24 22:08 22 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-24 23:33 23 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-25 00:58 24 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-25 02:23 25 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-25 03:49 26 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-25 05:14 27 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-25 06:39 28 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-25 08:04 29 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-25 09:29 30 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-25 10:55 31 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-25 12:20 32 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-25 13:45 33 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-25 15:10 34 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-25 16:36 35 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-25 18:01 36 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-25 19:26 37 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-25 20:51 38 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-25 22:16 39 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-25 23:42 40 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-26 01:07 41 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-26 02:32 42 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-26 03:57 43 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-26 05:23 44 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-26 06:48 45 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-26 08:13 46 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
2020-11-26 09:38 47 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330
2020-11-26 11:03 48 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.SV.JH.92-330 Stockfish 202011101829_nn-c3ca321c51c9
Posted inBayesElo