For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
| Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
| 1. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
|
98.029% |
1.957% |
0.014% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
| 2. |
Halogen 20201128 |
|
1.957% |
84.306% |
10.268% |
2.572% |
|
99.103% |
|
0.740% |
0.157% |
|
| 3. |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
|
0.001% |
9.347% |
67.960% |
17.076% |
|
94.384% |
|
4.407% |
1.209% |
|
| 4. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
|
0.011% |
1.419% |
9.594% |
28.923% |
|
39.947% |
|
26.979% |
32.855% |
0.219% |
| 5. |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
|
|
1.396% |
7.231% |
27.664% |
|
36.291% |
|
33.613% |
29.984% |
0.112% |
| 6. |
Cheese 2.2 |
|
0.002% |
1.575% |
4.933% |
23.757% |
|
30.267% |
|
34.213% |
35.160% |
0.360% |
| 7. |
Stash 24.0 |
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
|
0.008% |
|
0.048% |
0.635% |
99.309% |
Top promotions
| Pos |
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
| 1. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
23.640% |
| 2. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
22.467% |
| 3. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Cheese 2.2 |
19.522% |
| 4. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
7.181% |
| 5. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
4.873% |
| 6. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
2.691% |
| 7. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
2.512% |
| 8. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
Cheese 2.2 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
2.316% |
| 9. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
Cheese 2.2 |
1.949% |
| 10. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
0.831% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
35.631% |
| 2. |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
31.862% |
| 3. |
Cheese 2.2 |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
26.023% |
| 4. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
2.042% |
| 5. |
Cheese 2.2 |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
1.821% |
| 6. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Cheese 2.2 |
Halogen 20201128 |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
1.716% |
| 7. |
Cheese 2.2 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
0.339% |
| 8. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Cheese 2.2 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
0.331% |
| 9. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
0.190% |
| 10. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Cheese 2.2 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
0.037% |
Speculate Halogen 20201128 – Cheese 2.2 1-0
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
| Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
| 1. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
|
96.099% |
3.889% |
0.012% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
| 2. |
Halogen 20201128 |
|
3.892% |
92.631% |
3.160% |
0.286% |
|
99.969% |
|
0.028% |
0.003% |
|
| 3. |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
|
0.001% |
2.478% |
76.776% |
16.681% |
|
95.936% |
|
3.466% |
0.598% |
|
| 4. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
|
0.008% |
0.527% |
10.450% |
34.619% |
|
45.604% |
|
30.432% |
23.764% |
0.200% |
| 5. |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
|
|
0.468% |
8.277% |
36.220% |
|
44.965% |
|
35.192% |
19.720% |
0.123% |
| 6. |
Cheese 2.2 |
|
|
0.007% |
1.325% |
12.186% |
|
13.518% |
|
30.797% |
54.856% |
0.829% |
| 7. |
Stash 24.0 |
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
|
0.008% |
|
0.085% |
1.059% |
98.848% |
Top promotions
| Pos |
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
| 1. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
32.403% |
| 2. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
30.828% |
| 3. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Cheese 2.2 |
10.426% |
| 4. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
8.242% |
| 5. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
6.203% |
| 6. |
Halogen 20201128 |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
1.263% |
| 7. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
1.216% |
| 8. |
Halogen 20201128 |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
1.204% |
| 9. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
1.169% |
| 10. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
1.073% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
42.202% |
| 2. |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
41.593% |
| 3. |
Cheese 2.2 |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
12.104% |
| 4. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
2.652% |
| 5. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Cheese 2.2 |
Halogen 20201128 |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
0.722% |
| 6. |
Cheese 2.2 |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
0.688% |
| 7. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
0.027% |
| 8. |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Stash 24.0 |
0.006% |
| 9. |
Cheese 2.2 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
0.003% |
| 10. |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Stash 24.0 |
0.002% |
Speculate Halogen 20201128 – Cheese 2.2 1/2-1/2
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
| Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
| 1. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
|
98.877% |
1.112% |
0.011% |
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
| 2. |
Halogen 20201128 |
|
1.103% |
83.959% |
11.977% |
2.352% |
|
99.391% |
|
0.515% |
0.094% |
|
| 3. |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
|
0.002% |
10.448% |
65.741% |
17.351% |
|
93.542% |
|
4.938% |
1.520% |
|
| 4. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
|
0.013% |
1.620% |
9.611% |
26.322% |
|
37.566% |
|
25.786% |
36.407% |
0.241% |
| 5. |
Cheese 2.2 |
|
0.002% |
1.221% |
5.709% |
28.603% |
|
35.535% |
|
36.516% |
27.849% |
0.100% |
| 6. |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
|
0.003% |
1.640% |
6.951% |
25.369% |
|
33.963% |
|
32.208% |
33.708% |
0.121% |
| 7. |
Stash 24.0 |
|
|
|
|
0.003% |
|
0.003% |
|
0.037% |
0.422% |
99.538% |
Top promotions
| Pos |
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
| 1. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Cheese 2.2 |
23.623% |
| 2. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
20.852% |
| 3. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
19.851% |
| 4. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
6.975% |
| 5. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
4.468% |
| 6. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
3.168% |
| 7. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
Cheese 2.2 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
3.131% |
| 8. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
3.033% |
| 9. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
Cheese 2.2 |
2.311% |
| 10. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
0.933% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
32.971% |
| 2. |
Cheese 2.2 |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
30.714% |
| 3. |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
29.274% |
| 4. |
Cheese 2.2 |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
2.266% |
| 5. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Cheese 2.2 |
Halogen 20201128 |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
2.176% |
| 6. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
1.987% |
| 7. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
0.230% |
| 8. |
Cheese 2.2 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
0.177% |
| 9. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Cheese 2.2 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
0.173% |
| 10. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Cheese 2.2 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
0.029% |
Speculate Halogen 20201128 – Cheese 2.2 0-1
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
| Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
1-4. |
|
5. |
6. |
7. |
| 1. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
|
99.760% |
0.227% |
0.011% |
0.002% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
| 2. |
Halogen 20201128 |
|
0.198% |
50.551% |
25.277% |
15.730% |
|
91.756% |
|
6.610% |
1.633% |
0.001% |
| 3. |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
|
0.004% |
27.322% |
44.752% |
17.685% |
|
89.763% |
|
7.651% |
2.585% |
0.001% |
| 4. |
Cheese 2.2 |
|
0.019% |
15.466% |
16.883% |
34.416% |
|
66.784% |
|
23.741% |
9.465% |
0.010% |
| 5. |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
|
0.006% |
3.113% |
5.193% |
14.653% |
|
22.965% |
|
35.837% |
41.096% |
0.102% |
| 6. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
|
0.013% |
3.321% |
7.884% |
17.514% |
|
28.732% |
|
26.146% |
44.908% |
0.214% |
| 7. |
Stash 24.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
0.313% |
99.672% |
Top promotions
| Pos |
1. |
2. |
3. |
4. |
|
| 1. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Cheese 2.2 |
23.390% |
| 2. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
8.329% |
| 3. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Cheese 2.2 |
Halogen 20201128 |
7.005% |
| 4. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
Cheese 2.2 |
6.476% |
| 5. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
6.407% |
| 6. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Cheese 2.2 |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
5.980% |
| 7. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
4.186% |
| 8. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Cheese 2.2 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
4.065% |
| 9. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
4.055% |
| 10. |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
Cheese 2.2 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
3.156% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. |
Cheese 2.2 |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
50.213% |
| 2. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Halogen 20201128 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
18.724% |
| 3. |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
12.954% |
| 4. |
Cheese 2.2 |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
4.551% |
| 5. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Cheese 2.2 |
Halogen 20201128 |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
4.455% |
| 6. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Cheese 2.2 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
3.643% |
| 7. |
Cheese 2.2 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
3.550% |
| 8. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
0.859% |
| 9. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
0.679% |
| 10. |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Cheese 2.2 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
0.372% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
| Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
| 1 |
Seer 1.2.1/1.2.1_dev |
7.0 |
9.43 |
0.90 |
1.11 |
90 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 2 |
Halogen 20201128 |
4.5 |
7.63 |
1.00 |
2.33 |
10 |
61 |
19 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
| 3 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
4.5 |
6.68 |
0.90 |
3.36 |
0 |
17 |
47 |
22 |
10 |
4 |
| 4 |
Koivisto 4.9/4.10_dev |
3.0 |
5.54 |
1.04 |
4.57 |
0 |
5 |
13 |
28 |
31 |
23 |
| 5 |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
2.5 |
5.37 |
1.18 |
4.75 |
0 |
5 |
12 |
24 |
25 |
33 |
| 6 |
Cheese 2.2 |
3.0 |
5.24 |
1.06 |
4.93 |
0 |
3 |
8 |
20 |
31 |
36 |
| 7 |
Stash 24.0 |
0.5 |
2.11 |
0.98 |
6.95 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 7.74h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
| UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
| 2020-12-02 01:29 |
27 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
| 2020-12-02 09:14 |
28 |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Halogen 20201128 |
| 2020-12-02 16:58 |
29 |
Cheese 2.2 |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
| 2020-12-03 00:42 |
30 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
Stash 24.0 |
| 2020-12-03 08:26 |
31 |
Stash 24.0 |
Cheese 2.2 |
| 2020-12-03 16:11 |
32 |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
| 2020-12-03 23:55 |
33 |
Halogen 20201128 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
| 2020-12-04 07:39 |
34 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
| 2020-12-04 15:24 |
35 |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Stash 24.0 |
| 2020-12-04 23:08 |
36 |
Cheese 2.2 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
| 2020-12-05 06:52 |
37 |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
| 2020-12-05 14:36 |
38 |
Stash 24.0 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
| 2020-12-05 22:21 |
39 |
Seer 1.2.1_dev |
Halogen 20201128 |
| 2020-12-06 06:05 |
40 |
Halogen 20201128 |
Stash 24.0 |
| 2020-12-06 13:49 |
41 |
Koivisto 4.10_dev |
MrBob 1.0.0_dev |
| 2020-12-06 21:33 |
42 |
A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d |
Cheese 2.2 |