Dec 02 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev 97.356% 2.644% 100.000%
2. Halogen 20201128 2.644% 97.306% 0.050% 100.000%
3. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.050% 99.200% 0.698% 99.948% 0.052%
4. Koivisto 4.10_dev 0.233% 52.551% 52.784% 45.790% 1.426%
5. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.517% 45.718% 46.235% 48.262% 5.503%
6. Cheese 2.2 1.033% 1.033% 5.896% 92.772% 0.299%
7. Stash 24.0 0.299% 99.701%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3. 4.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Koivisto 4.10_dev 51.128%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 44.441%
3. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Koivisto 4.10_dev 1.378%
4. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 1.220%
5. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Cheese 2.2 1.009%
6. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.484%
7. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 Koivisto 4.10_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.193%
8. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 Koivisto 4.10_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.032%
9. Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Halogen 20201128 Koivisto 4.10_dev 0.026%
10. Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Halogen 20201128 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.024%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Halogen 20201128 Koivisto 4.10_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 52.732%
2. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 46.183%
3. Cheese 2.2 Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 1.033%
4. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Halogen 20201128 Koivisto 4.10_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 0.052%

Speculate Cheese 2.2 – MrBob 1.0.0_dev 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev 97.320% 2.680% 100.000%
2. Halogen 20201128 2.680% 97.320% 100.000%
3. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 95.522% 3.989% 99.511% 0.489%
4. Koivisto 4.10_dev 1.677% 49.021% 50.698% 42.310% 6.992%
5. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 2.801% 42.674% 45.475% 42.672% 11.853%
6. Cheese 2.2 4.316% 4.316% 14.529% 81.155%
7. Stash 24.0 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3. 4.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Koivisto 4.10_dev 47.533%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 41.241%
3. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Cheese 2.2 4.196%
4. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d MrBob 1.0.0_dev 2.550%
5. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 Koivisto 4.10_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev 1.324%
6. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Koivisto 4.10_dev 1.314%
7. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 1.118%
8. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 Koivisto 4.10_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.308%
9. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Koivisto 4.10_dev 0.168%
10. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Cheese 2.2 0.120%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Halogen 20201128 Koivisto 4.10_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 50.209%
2. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 44.986%
3. Cheese 2.2 Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 4.316%
4. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Halogen 20201128 Koivisto 4.10_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 0.489%

Speculate Cheese 2.2 – MrBob 1.0.0_dev 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev 97.406% 2.594% 100.000%
2. Halogen 20201128 2.594% 97.397% 0.009% 100.000%
3. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.009% 99.536% 0.455% 100.000%
4. Koivisto 4.10_dev 0.121% 52.969% 53.090% 45.833% 1.077%
5. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.334% 45.735% 46.069% 48.217% 5.714%
6. Cheese 2.2 0.841% 0.841% 5.950% 93.177% 0.032%
7. Stash 24.0 0.032% 99.968%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3. 4.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Koivisto 4.10_dev 51.591%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 44.544%
3. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Koivisto 4.10_dev 1.375%
4. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 1.186%
5. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Cheese 2.2 0.818%
6. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.325%
7. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 Koivisto 4.10_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.119%
8. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Cheese 2.2 0.022%
9. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.009%
10. Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Halogen 20201128 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.005%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Halogen 20201128 Koivisto 4.10_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 53.090%
2. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 46.069%
3. Cheese 2.2 Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 0.841%

Speculate Cheese 2.2 – MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev 97.165% 2.835% 100.000%
2. Halogen 20201128 2.835% 96.850% 0.315% 100.000%
3. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.315% 99.685% 100.000%
4. Koivisto 4.10_dev 52.538% 52.538% 47.432% 0.030%
5. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 47.455% 47.455% 51.224% 1.321%
6. Cheese 2.2 0.007% 0.007% 1.344% 97.143% 1.506%
7. Stash 24.0 1.506% 98.494%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3. 4.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Koivisto 4.10_dev 50.849%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 45.995%
3. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Koivisto 4.10_dev 1.544%
4. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 1.290%
5. Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Halogen 20201128 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.170%
6. Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Halogen 20201128 Koivisto 4.10_dev 0.145%
7. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Cheese 2.2 0.006%
8. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Cheese 2.2 0.001%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Halogen 20201128 Koivisto 4.10_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 52.538%
2. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 47.455%
3. Cheese 2.2 Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 0.007%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 Seer 1.2.1/1.2.1_dev 9.5 10.02 0.43 1.00 100 0 0 0 0 0
2 Halogen 20201128 7.5 8.82 0.55 2.02 0 98 2 0 0 0
3 MrBob 1.0.0_dev 5.5 7.15 0.78 3.03 0 2 95 2 1 0
4 Koivisto 4.9/4.10_dev 4.0 5.16 0.62 4.45 0 0 2 54 42 2
5 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 4.0 5.05 0.61 4.64 0 0 2 42 47 9
6 Cheese 2.2 3.0 3.78 0.61 5.88 0 0 0 2 10 88
7 Stash 24.0 1.5 2.03 0.54 6.99 0 0 0 0 0 1

Expected start time based on estimate of 5.79h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-12-02 08:46 37 MrBob 1.0.0_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d
2020-12-02 14:34 38 Stash 24.0 Koivisto 4.10_dev
2020-12-02 20:21 39 Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128
2020-12-03 02:09 40 Halogen 20201128 Stash 24.0
2020-12-03 07:56 41 Koivisto 4.10_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev
2020-12-03 13:44 42 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Cheese 2.2
Posted inBayesElo