Dec 02 2020
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev 97.118% 2.882% 100.000%
2. Halogen 20201128 2.882% 97.084% 0.034% 100.000%
3. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.034% 99.966% 100.000%
4. Koivisto 4.10_dev 97.461% 97.461% 2.539%
5. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 2.539% 2.539% 97.461%
6. Cheese 2.2 100.000%
7. Stash 24.0 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3. 4.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Koivisto 4.10_dev 94.645%
2. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Koivisto 4.10_dev 2.789%
3. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 2.439%
4. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.093%
5. Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Halogen 20201128 Koivisto 4.10_dev 0.027%
6. Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Halogen 20201128 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.007%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Halogen 20201128 Koivisto 4.10_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 97.461%
2. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 2.539%

Speculate Seer 1.2.1_dev – Halogen 20201128 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev 100.000% 100.000%
2. Halogen 20201128 99.787% 0.213% 100.000%
3. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.213% 99.787% 100.000%
4. Koivisto 4.10_dev 97.544% 97.544% 2.456%
5. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 2.456% 2.456% 97.544%
6. Cheese 2.2 100.000%
7. Stash 24.0 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3. 4.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Koivisto 4.10_dev 97.387%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 2.400%
3. Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Halogen 20201128 Koivisto 4.10_dev 0.157%
4. Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Halogen 20201128 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.056%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Halogen 20201128 Koivisto 4.10_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 97.544%
2. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 2.456%

Speculate Seer 1.2.1_dev – Halogen 20201128 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev 100.000% 100.000%
2. Halogen 20201128 100.000% 100.000%
3. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 100.000% 100.000%
4. Koivisto 4.10_dev 97.584% 97.584% 2.416%
5. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 2.416% 2.416% 97.584%
6. Cheese 2.2 100.000%
7. Stash 24.0 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3. 4.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Koivisto 4.10_dev 97.584%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 2.416%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Halogen 20201128 Koivisto 4.10_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 97.584%
2. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 2.416%

Speculate Seer 1.2.1_dev – Halogen 20201128 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 4. 1-4. 5. 6. 7.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev 74.707% 25.293% 100.000%
2. Halogen 20201128 25.293% 74.707% 100.000%
3. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 100.000% 100.000%
4. Koivisto 4.10_dev 97.537% 97.537% 2.463%
5. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 2.463% 2.463% 97.537%
6. Cheese 2.2 100.000%
7. Stash 24.0 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3. 4.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Koivisto 4.10_dev 72.840%
2. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Koivisto 4.10_dev 24.697%
3. Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 1.867%
4. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.596%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Halogen 20201128 Koivisto 4.10_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 97.537%
2. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Halogen 20201128 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 2.463%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 Seer 1.2.1/1.2.1_dev 9.5 10.02 0.43 1.00 100 0 0 0 0 0
2 Halogen 20201128 7.5 8.83 0.54 2.01 0 99 1 0 0 0
3 MrBob 1.0.0_dev 7.0 7.47 0.43 2.99 0 1 99 0 0 0
4 Koivisto 4.9/4.10_dev 5.0 5.53 0.43 4.24 0 0 0 76 24 0
5 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 4.5 5.16 0.41 4.76 0 0 0 24 76 0
6 Cheese 2.2 3.0 3.34 0.41 6.00 0 0 0 0 0 100
7 Stash 24.0 1.5 1.65 0.31 7.00 0 0 0 0 0 0

Expected start time based on estimate of 5.42h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-12-02 11:49 40 Halogen 20201128 Stash 24.0
2020-12-02 17:14 41 Koivisto 4.10_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev
2020-12-02 22:40 42 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Cheese 2.2
Posted inBayesElo