For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations.
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 1-3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Weiss 1.2-dev 72.061% 17.367% 6.967% 96.395% 2.548% 0.809% 0.208% 0.034% 0.004% 0.002% 0.002%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev 16.024% 42.006% 22.646% 80.676% 11.283% 5.299% 2.254% 0.432% 0.049% 0.007% 0.007%
3. Tucano 9.02_dev 8.408% 20.850% 27.503% 56.761% 21.808% 12.769% 5.754% 2.009% 0.646% 0.253% 0.226% 0.027%
4. Monolith 20200804 2.324% 10.974% 22.729% 36.027% 26.077% 20.489% 11.717% 4.097% 1.229% 0.364% 0.329% 0.035%
5. FabChess 1.16 0.762% 5.050% 10.843% 16.655% 18.465% 23.066% 21.707% 11.787% 5.199% 3.121% 2.277% 0.844%
6. ChessFighter 3.6.0 0.408% 3.476% 7.722% 11.606% 14.120% 21.957% 23.976% 15.675% 8.111% 4.555% 3.601% 0.954%
7. Halogen 20201128 0.010% 0.237% 1.232% 1.479% 4.225% 10.841% 20.612% 30.019% 19.425% 13.399% 10.176% 3.223%
8. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.002% 0.032% 0.248% 0.282% 0.895% 2.666% 7.331% 18.179% 29.245% 41.402% 27.074% 14.328%
9. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.001% 0.007% 0.103% 0.111% 0.533% 1.786% 5.105% 12.864% 23.002% 56.599% 30.767% 25.832%
10. Bagatur 2.2 0.001% 0.007% 0.008% 0.046% 0.318% 1.336% 4.904% 13.090% 80.298% 25.541% 54.757%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3.
1. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 16.554%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 12.677%
3. Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 10.378%
4. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev 5.057%
5. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev FabChess 1.16 4.824%
6. Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev 4.567%
7. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 3.580%
8. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev ChessFighter 3.6.0 3.537%
9. Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev 2.887%
10. Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 2.827%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 39.028%
2. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 22.696%
3. FabChess 1.16 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 8.642%
4. Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 7.151%
5. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 5.896%
6. FabChess 1.16 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 4.246%
7. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 2.828%
8. FabChess 1.16 Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 1.956%
9. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 1.913%
10. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 1.482%

Speculate ChessFighter 3.6.0 – Seer 1.2.1_dev 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 1-3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Weiss 1.2-dev 78.420% 13.200% 5.024% 96.644% 2.128% 0.883% 0.303% 0.034% 0.007% 0.001% 0.001%
2. Tucano 9.02_dev 9.842% 25.785% 21.797% 57.424% 18.207% 13.625% 7.511% 2.307% 0.716% 0.210% 0.181% 0.029%
3. Seer 1.2.1_dev 6.338% 26.910% 24.229% 57.477% 18.774% 13.677% 7.904% 1.882% 0.258% 0.028% 0.026% 0.002%
4. Monolith 20200804 2.727% 14.032% 19.562% 36.321% 21.856% 20.219% 14.854% 5.031% 1.383% 0.336% 0.300% 0.036%
5. ChessFighter 3.6.0 1.738% 12.716% 16.984% 31.438% 19.782% 21.028% 16.355% 7.842% 2.673% 0.882% 0.764% 0.118%
6. FabChess 1.16 0.924% 6.935% 10.848% 18.707% 15.133% 19.658% 25.423% 12.860% 5.296% 2.923% 2.210% 0.713%
7. Halogen 20201128 0.011% 0.370% 1.252% 1.633% 3.182% 7.646% 17.128% 34.774% 21.211% 14.426% 10.934% 3.492%
8. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.042% 0.209% 0.251% 0.603% 1.937% 5.505% 17.851% 31.094% 42.759% 27.930% 14.829%
9. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.010% 0.091% 0.101% 0.310% 1.158% 3.915% 12.622% 24.061% 57.833% 31.522% 26.311%
10. Bagatur 2.2 0.004% 0.004% 0.025% 0.169% 1.102% 4.797% 13.301% 80.602% 26.132% 54.470%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3.
1. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 9.447%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 9.303%
3. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 7.476%
4. Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev ChessFighter 3.6.0 5.567%
5. Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev 4.416%
6. Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev 4.355%
7. Weiss 1.2-dev ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev 4.322%
8. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev ChessFighter 3.6.0 4.129%
9. Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev Monolith 20200804 4.067%
10. Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev FabChess 1.16 3.989%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 25.065%
2. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 14.022%
3. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 11.213%
4. Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 11.071%
5. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 9.844%
6. FabChess 1.16 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 6.664%
7. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 5.866%
8. FabChess 1.16 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 5.259%
9. FabChess 1.16 Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 2.908%
10. ChessFighter 3.6.0 FabChess 1.16 Weiss 1.2-dev 2.808%

Speculate ChessFighter 3.6.0 – Seer 1.2.1_dev 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 1-3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Weiss 1.2-dev 73.294% 16.509% 6.706% 96.509% 2.543% 0.755% 0.155% 0.033% 0.004% 0.001% 0.001%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev 14.847% 42.775% 24.141% 81.763% 11.062% 4.892% 1.847% 0.393% 0.040% 0.003% 0.003%
3. Tucano 9.02_dev 8.622% 21.557% 26.740% 56.919% 21.578% 12.530% 5.943% 2.071% 0.733% 0.226% 0.189% 0.037%
4. Monolith 20200804 2.230% 10.942% 22.767% 35.939% 26.005% 20.303% 11.874% 4.234% 1.258% 0.387% 0.355% 0.032%
5. FabChess 1.16 0.707% 5.397% 10.718% 16.822% 18.201% 22.439% 21.954% 12.157% 5.226% 3.201% 2.315% 0.886%
6. ChessFighter 3.6.0 0.291% 2.506% 7.339% 10.136% 14.999% 23.879% 24.932% 15.568% 7.172% 3.314% 2.739% 0.575%
7. Halogen 20201128 0.008% 0.275% 1.230% 1.513% 4.173% 10.641% 20.035% 30.555% 19.661% 13.422% 10.181% 3.241%
8. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.001% 0.031% 0.261% 0.293% 0.884% 2.663% 7.118% 17.494% 29.555% 41.993% 27.493% 14.500%
9. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.008% 0.094% 0.102% 0.513% 1.629% 4.808% 12.611% 23.273% 57.064% 31.083% 25.981%
10. Bagatur 2.2 0.004% 0.004% 0.042% 0.269% 1.334% 4.884% 13.078% 80.389% 25.641% 54.748%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3.
1. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 16.547%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 13.153%
3. Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 11.331%
4. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev FabChess 1.16 4.931%
5. Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev 4.796%
6. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev 4.700%
7. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev ChessFighter 3.6.0 3.676%
8. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 3.101%
9. Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 3.071%
10. Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev 2.826%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 39.860%
2. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 22.892%
3. FabChess 1.16 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 8.853%
4. Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 7.177%
5. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 5.770%
6. FabChess 1.16 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 4.421%
7. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 2.074%
8. FabChess 1.16 Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 2.002%
9. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 1.928%
10. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 1.121%

Speculate ChessFighter 3.6.0 – Seer 1.2.1_dev 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 1-3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Weiss 1.2-dev 63.849% 24.038% 8.555% 96.442% 2.804% 0.612% 0.115% 0.024% 0.003%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev 27.572% 49.026% 16.648% 93.246% 4.985% 1.501% 0.236% 0.027% 0.005%
3. Tucano 9.02_dev 6.503% 15.805% 33.542% 55.850% 25.645% 11.762% 4.317% 1.589% 0.623% 0.214% 0.186% 0.028%
4. Monolith 20200804 1.515% 7.442% 26.362% 35.319% 30.767% 20.735% 8.712% 3.142% 1.028% 0.297% 0.274% 0.023%
5. FabChess 1.16 0.532% 3.288% 10.857% 14.677% 21.398% 27.441% 18.502% 9.943% 4.883% 3.156% 2.250% 0.906%
6. ChessFighter 3.6.0 0.023% 0.231% 2.324% 2.578% 7.333% 16.741% 25.405% 22.270% 14.851% 10.822% 8.257% 2.565%
7. Halogen 20201128 0.006% 0.154% 1.304% 1.464% 5.213% 14.700% 24.722% 24.968% 16.853% 12.080% 9.106% 2.974%
8. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.013% 0.289% 0.302% 1.173% 3.628% 9.579% 19.062% 26.717% 39.539% 25.573% 13.966%
9. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.003% 0.113% 0.116% 0.626% 2.391% 6.643% 13.718% 22.382% 54.124% 29.108% 25.016%
10. Bagatur 2.2 0.006% 0.006% 0.056% 0.489% 1.769% 5.257% 12.655% 79.768% 25.246% 54.522%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3.
1. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 20.675%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 16.068%
3. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev 9.918%
4. Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 8.153%
5. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 6.665%
6. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev FabChess 1.16 6.097%
7. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 3.693%
8. Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev 3.212%
9. Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 2.435%
10. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev FabChess 1.16 2.428%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 47.070%
2. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 28.298%
3. FabChess 1.16 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 10.734%
4. Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 3.260%
5. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 2.341%
6. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 2.166%
7. FabChess 1.16 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 2.011%
8. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 1.118%
9. FabChess 1.16 Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 0.875%
10. FabChess 1.16 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 0.639%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 Weiss 1.2-dev 5.5 13.22 1.72 1.58 69 17 8 4 2 1 0 0 0
2 Seer 1.2.1/1.2.1_dev 5.0 11.34 1.57 2.89 15 35 22 14 8 4 2 1 0
3 Tucano 9.02_dev 4.5 10.60 1.73 3.64 10 21 22 18 13 9 5 2 1
4 Monolith 20200804 4.5 10.14 1.41 4.09 3 13 22 25 18 11 5 2 1
5 FabChess 1.16 3.5 9.24 1.76 5.15 2 8 12 16 19 18 13 7 4
6 ChessFighter 3.6.0 3.5 8.77 1.76 5.70 1 5 9 13 17 19 17 11 6
7 Halogen 20201128 3.0 8.17 1.48 6.40 0 1 4 8 15 21 24 15 8
8 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 3.0 6.66 1.45 8.08 0 0 1 2 4 8 16 26 28
9 MrBob 1.0.0_dev 2.5 6.57 1.43 8.17 0 0 0 1 3 7 15 25 29
10 Bagatur 2.2 2.0 5.28 1.40 9.30 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 11 23

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.10h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-12-04 04:20 39 FabChess 1.16 Bagatur 2.2
2020-12-04 05:26 40 Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-04 06:32 41 Tucano 9.02_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d
2020-12-04 07:38 42 Bagatur 2.2 Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-04 08:43 43 Seer 1.2.1_dev FabChess 1.16
2020-12-04 09:49 44 Halogen 20201128 ChessFighter 3.6.0
2020-12-04 10:55 45 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Monolith 20200804
2020-12-04 12:00 46 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Monolith 20200804
2020-12-04 13:06 47 MrBob 1.0.0_dev ChessFighter 3.6.0
2020-12-04 14:12 48 Halogen 20201128 FabChess 1.16
2020-12-04 15:18 49 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-04 16:23 50 Bagatur 2.2 Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-04 17:29 51 Bagatur 2.2 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d
2020-12-04 18:35 52 Tucano 9.02_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev
2020-12-04 19:41 53 Weiss 1.2-dev Halogen 20201128
2020-12-04 20:46 54 FabChess 1.16 MrBob 1.0.0_dev
2020-12-04 21:52 55 ChessFighter 3.6.0 Monolith 20200804
2020-12-04 22:58 56 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d ChessFighter 3.6.0
2020-12-05 00:04 57 Monolith 20200804 FabChess 1.16
2020-12-05 01:09 58 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-05 02:15 59 Halogen 20201128 Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-05 03:21 60 Seer 1.2.1_dev Bagatur 2.2
2020-12-05 04:27 61 Seer 1.2.1_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d
2020-12-05 05:32 62 Bagatur 2.2 Halogen 20201128
2020-12-05 06:38 63 Tucano 9.02_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev
2020-12-05 07:44 64 Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804
2020-12-05 08:50 65 FabChess 1.16 ChessFighter 3.6.0
2020-12-05 09:55 66 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d FabChess 1.16
2020-12-05 11:01 67 ChessFighter 3.6.0 Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-05 12:07 68 Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-05 13:12 69 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Bagatur 2.2
2020-12-05 14:18 70 Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev
2020-12-05 15:24 71 Halogen 20201128 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d
2020-12-05 16:30 72 Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev
2020-12-05 17:35 73 Bagatur 2.2 Monolith 20200804
2020-12-05 18:41 74 Tucano 9.02_dev ChessFighter 3.6.0
2020-12-05 19:47 75 Weiss 1.2-dev FabChess 1.16
2020-12-05 20:53 76 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-05 21:58 77 FabChess 1.16 Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-05 23:04 78 ChessFighter 3.6.0 Bagatur 2.2
2020-12-06 00:10 79 Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev
2020-12-06 01:16 80 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Halogen 20201128
2020-12-06 02:21 81 MrBob 1.0.0_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d
2020-12-06 03:27 82 Halogen 20201128 Monolith 20200804
2020-12-06 04:33 83 Seer 1.2.1_dev ChessFighter 3.6.0
2020-12-06 05:39 84 Bagatur 2.2 FabChess 1.16
2020-12-06 06:44 85 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-06 07:50 86 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-06 08:56 87 Weiss 1.2-dev Bagatur 2.2
2020-12-06 10:02 88 FabChess 1.16 Seer 1.2.1_dev
2020-12-06 11:07 89 ChessFighter 3.6.0 Halogen 20201128
2020-12-06 12:13 90 Monolith 20200804 MrBob 1.0.0_dev