For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 1-3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev 50.423% 39.927% 8.880% 99.230% 0.689% 0.070% 0.011%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev 46.289% 46.505% 6.569% 99.363% 0.583% 0.050% 0.004%
3. Tucano 9.02_dev 3.062% 11.801% 63.179% 78.042% 16.684% 4.087% 0.974% 0.193% 0.019% 0.001% 0.001%
4. Monolith 20200804 0.219% 1.588% 17.265% 19.072% 50.548% 16.683% 8.634% 4.296% 0.685% 0.082% 0.082%
5. ChessFighter 3.6.0 0.007% 0.088% 1.741% 1.836% 10.979% 33.247% 29.769% 19.272% 4.240% 0.657% 0.650% 0.007%
6. Halogen 20201128 0.063% 1.536% 1.599% 13.334% 30.936% 32.315% 15.654% 4.846% 1.316% 1.282% 0.034%
7. FabChess 1.16 0.028% 0.816% 0.844% 6.915% 13.448% 22.765% 41.475% 11.657% 2.896% 2.833% 0.063%
8. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.012% 0.012% 0.210% 1.088% 3.635% 11.264% 40.067% 43.724% 40.311% 3.413%
9. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.002% 0.002% 0.058% 0.391% 1.888% 7.796% 37.878% 51.987% 50.307% 1.680%
10. Bagatur 2.2 0.005% 0.050% 0.608% 99.337% 4.534% 94.803%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev 35.826%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 26.925%
3. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 8.368%
4. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 8.162%
5. Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 7.447%
6. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 3.670%
7. Tucano 9.02_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 2.231%
8. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 0.860%
9. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev ChessFighter 3.6.0 0.844%
10. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev ChessFighter 3.6.0 0.819%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 76.697%
2. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 17.857%
3. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 1.720%
4. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 1.508%
5. FabChess 1.16 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.798%
6. Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.578%
7. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 0.576%
8. Halogen 20201128 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.067%
9. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.048%
10. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 0.032%

Speculate Monolith 20200804 – FabChess 1.16 1-0

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 1-3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev 50.142% 39.766% 8.838% 98.746% 1.148% 0.096% 0.008% 0.001% 0.001%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev 46.214% 45.354% 7.210% 98.778% 1.167% 0.055%
3. Tucano 9.02_dev 3.008% 11.104% 52.120% 66.232% 28.072% 4.795% 0.795% 0.081% 0.024% 0.001% 0.001%
4. Monolith 20200804 0.631% 3.620% 28.870% 33.121% 47.503% 14.916% 4.029% 0.386% 0.041% 0.004% 0.004%
5. ChessFighter 3.6.0 0.004% 0.109% 1.629% 1.742% 11.254% 36.898% 33.307% 12.796% 3.455% 0.548% 0.540% 0.008%
6. Halogen 20201128 0.001% 0.046% 1.277% 1.324% 10.085% 36.673% 37.688% 9.940% 3.264% 1.026% 1.003% 0.023%
7. FabChess 1.16 0.001% 0.045% 0.046% 0.602% 4.920% 16.344% 50.206% 20.656% 7.226% 7.007% 0.219%
8. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.011% 0.011% 0.145% 1.169% 5.038% 15.346% 37.135% 41.156% 37.486% 3.670%
9. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.024% 0.477% 2.783% 11.164% 34.632% 50.920% 49.104% 1.816%
10. Bagatur 2.2 0.001% 0.008% 0.080% 0.792% 99.119% 4.855% 94.264%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev 29.443%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 21.680%
3. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 13.830%
4. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 13.811%
5. Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 6.803%
6. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 3.345%
7. Tucano 9.02_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 2.059%
8. Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 1.459%
9. Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev 1.213%
10. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev ChessFighter 3.6.0 0.789%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 63.857%
2. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 30.760%
3. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 1.597%
4. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 1.262%
5. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 1.173%
6. Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 1.089%
7. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.052%
8. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 0.050%
9. FabChess 1.16 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.039%
10. Halogen 20201128 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.032%

Speculate Monolith 20200804 – FabChess 1.16 1/2-1/2

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 1-3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev 50.630% 40.069% 8.659% 99.358% 0.563% 0.069% 0.006% 0.004%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev 46.239% 46.760% 6.527% 99.526% 0.424% 0.047% 0.003%
3. Tucano 9.02_dev 2.998% 11.942% 65.863% 80.803% 14.274% 3.793% 0.914% 0.190% 0.023% 0.003% 0.003%
4. Monolith 20200804 0.125% 1.032% 14.214% 15.371% 40.651% 24.761% 12.982% 5.334% 0.836% 0.065% 0.065%
5. ChessFighter 3.6.0 0.008% 0.110% 2.344% 2.462% 18.660% 30.594% 27.786% 15.790% 4.038% 0.670% 0.666% 0.004%
6. Halogen 20201128 0.081% 1.826% 1.907% 18.792% 27.136% 29.446% 16.057% 5.254% 1.408% 1.382% 0.026%
7. FabChess 1.16 0.004% 0.540% 0.544% 6.235% 11.989% 23.037% 42.287% 12.810% 3.098% 3.055% 0.043%
8. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.002% 0.022% 0.024% 0.347% 1.204% 4.084% 12.729% 38.241% 43.371% 40.065% 3.306%
9. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.005% 0.005% 0.054% 0.407% 1.737% 7.568% 38.193% 52.036% 50.415% 1.621%
10. Bagatur 2.2 0.005% 0.041% 0.605% 99.349% 4.349% 95.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev 37.130%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 28.394%
3. Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 7.579%
4. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 6.896%
5. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 6.770%
6. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 3.817%
7. Tucano 9.02_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 2.252%
8. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev ChessFighter 3.6.0 1.153%
9. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev ChessFighter 3.6.0 1.098%
10. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 1.033%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 79.748%
2. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 14.468%
3. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 2.321%
4. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 1.799%
5. FabChess 1.16 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.520%
6. Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.434%
7. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 0.415%
8. Halogen 20201128 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.083%
9. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.072%
10. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 0.026%

Speculate Monolith 20200804 – FabChess 1.16 0-1

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 1-3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev 50.427% 40.557% 8.673% 99.657% 0.282% 0.051% 0.007% 0.003%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev 46.588% 46.846% 6.365% 99.799% 0.171% 0.024% 0.006%
3. Tucano 9.02_dev 2.958% 12.113% 72.775% 87.846% 7.870% 2.797% 1.108% 0.333% 0.044% 0.002% 0.002%
4. Monolith 20200804 0.013% 0.222% 4.845% 5.080% 24.812% 25.190% 24.353% 16.986% 3.084% 0.495% 0.493% 0.002%
5. FabChess 1.16 0.067% 2.736% 2.803% 26.427% 25.187% 21.829% 19.051% 4.009% 0.694% 0.689% 0.005%
6. ChessFighter 3.6.0 0.010% 0.113% 2.451% 2.574% 19.248% 24.430% 24.125% 23.866% 5.006% 0.751% 0.745% 0.006%
7. Halogen 20201128 0.004% 0.081% 2.131% 2.216% 20.788% 20.935% 24.056% 23.968% 6.481% 1.556% 1.526% 0.030%
8. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.001% 0.022% 0.023% 0.319% 1.036% 3.084% 9.562% 41.889% 44.087% 41.092% 2.995%
9. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.002% 0.002% 0.083% 0.350% 1.430% 6.207% 38.931% 52.997% 51.295% 1.702%
10. Bagatur 2.2 0.002% 0.024% 0.556% 99.418% 4.158% 95.260%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev 40.657%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 32.013%
3. Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 7.865%
4. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 3.923%
5. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 2.425%
6. Tucano 9.02_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 2.305%
7. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 2.246%
8. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev FabChess 1.16 1.380%
9. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev FabChess 1.16 1.275%
10. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev ChessFighter 3.6.0 1.189%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 87.344%
2. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 4.850%
3. FabChess 1.16 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 2.694%
4. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 2.438%
5. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 2.106%
6. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 0.104%
7. Halogen 20201128 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.094%
8. Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.092%
9. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.089%
10. FabChess 1.16 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 0.052%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 Weiss 1.2-dev 8.0 12.88 1.18 1.60 56 31 10 2 1 0 0 0 0
2 Seer 1.2.1/1.2.1_dev 8.0 12.58 1.12 1.81 38 48 12 2 1 0 0 0 0
3 Tucano 9.02_dev 7.0 10.98 1.25 3.25 6 16 48 17 8 4 1 0 0
4 Monolith 20200804 6.0 9.74 1.14 4.49 1 3 17 36 23 13 6 2 0
5 Halogen 20201128 5.0 8.93 1.18 5.52 0 1 6 19 25 24 15 7 2
6 ChessFighter 3.6.0 6.0 8.80 1.10 5.68 0 1 4 14 25 26 20 7 1
7 FabChess 1.16 5.0 8.19 1.26 6.45 0 0 3 8 15 22 28 17 7
8 MrBob 1.0.0_dev 4.0 6.94 1.14 7.99 0 0 0 1 3 7 17 37 32
9 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 4.5 6.57 1.04 8.34 0 0 0 0 1 4 12 28 50
10 Bagatur 2.2 2.5 4.39 1.04 9.88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.10h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-12-05 01:31 58 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-05 02:37 59 Halogen 20201128 Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-05 03:43 60 Seer 1.2.1_dev Bagatur 2.2
2020-12-05 04:50 61 Seer 1.2.1_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d
2020-12-05 05:56 62 Bagatur 2.2 Halogen 20201128
2020-12-05 07:02 63 Tucano 9.02_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev
2020-12-05 08:08 64 Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804
2020-12-05 09:14 65 FabChess 1.16 ChessFighter 3.6.0
2020-12-05 10:20 66 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d FabChess 1.16
2020-12-05 11:26 67 ChessFighter 3.6.0 Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-05 12:32 68 Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-05 13:39 69 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Bagatur 2.2
2020-12-05 14:45 70 Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev
2020-12-05 15:51 71 Halogen 20201128 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d
2020-12-05 16:57 72 Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev
2020-12-05 18:03 73 Bagatur 2.2 Monolith 20200804
2020-12-05 19:09 74 Tucano 9.02_dev ChessFighter 3.6.0
2020-12-05 20:15 75 Weiss 1.2-dev FabChess 1.16
2020-12-05 21:21 76 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-05 22:28 77 FabChess 1.16 Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-05 23:34 78 ChessFighter 3.6.0 Bagatur 2.2
2020-12-06 00:40 79 Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev
2020-12-06 01:46 80 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Halogen 20201128
2020-12-06 02:52 81 MrBob 1.0.0_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d
2020-12-06 03:58 82 Halogen 20201128 Monolith 20200804
2020-12-06 05:04 83 Seer 1.2.1_dev ChessFighter 3.6.0
2020-12-06 06:10 84 Bagatur 2.2 FabChess 1.16
2020-12-06 07:16 85 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-06 08:23 86 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-06 09:29 87 Weiss 1.2-dev Bagatur 2.2
2020-12-06 10:35 88 FabChess 1.16 Seer 1.2.1_dev
2020-12-06 11:41 89 ChessFighter 3.6.0 Halogen 20201128
2020-12-06 12:47 90 Monolith 20200804 MrBob 1.0.0_dev