For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 1-3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev 76.390% 19.288% 3.456% 99.134% 0.706% 0.146% 0.013% 0.001%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev 20.391% 64.407% 11.912% 96.710% 2.933% 0.325% 0.030% 0.002%
3. Monolith 20200804 1.992% 9.630% 43.869% 55.491% 29.949% 11.243% 2.727% 0.523% 0.062% 0.005% 0.005%
4. Tucano 9.02_dev 1.152% 6.127% 32.685% 39.964% 38.757% 15.709% 4.552% 0.829% 0.173% 0.016% 0.016%
5. Halogen 20201128 0.047% 0.396% 6.064% 6.507% 18.040% 43.933% 23.931% 6.007% 1.324% 0.258% 0.257% 0.001%
6. ChessFighter 3.6.0 0.028% 0.149% 1.840% 2.017% 8.415% 23.122% 42.522% 15.723% 7.135% 1.066% 1.061% 0.005%
7. FabChess 1.16 0.002% 0.051% 0.053% 0.452% 2.154% 14.043% 38.803% 33.665% 10.830% 10.608% 0.222%
8. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.001% 0.121% 0.122% 0.723% 3.115% 10.582% 30.223% 37.341% 17.894% 17.349% 0.545%
9. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.002% 0.002% 0.025% 0.253% 1.599% 7.847% 20.084% 70.190% 68.468% 1.722%
10. Bagatur 2.2 0.001% 0.042% 0.216% 99.741% 2.236% 97.505%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 32.875%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev 25.504%
3. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 9.252%
4. Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 6.300%
5. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 5.515%
6. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Halogen 20201128 4.197%
7. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 3.402%
8. Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev 1.612%
9. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 1.596%
10. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 1.361%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 51.630%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 36.390%
3. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 6.022%
4. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 2.780%
5. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 1.656%
6. Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.514%
7. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev 0.200%
8. Halogen 20201128 Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 0.140%
9. Halogen 20201128 Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev 0.126%
10. MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.118%

Speculate Seer 1.2.1_dev – Bagatur 2.2 1-0

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 1-3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev 86.965% 11.712% 1.143% 99.820% 0.154% 0.025% 0.001%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev 11.461% 73.049% 12.339% 96.849% 2.816% 0.309% 0.024% 0.002%
3. Monolith 20200804 0.958% 9.200% 44.866% 55.024% 30.158% 11.343% 2.892% 0.505% 0.076% 0.002% 0.002%
4. Tucano 9.02_dev 0.581% 5.726% 33.341% 39.648% 38.912% 15.914% 4.506% 0.860% 0.149% 0.011% 0.011%
5. Halogen 20201128 0.031% 0.188% 6.242% 6.461% 18.336% 43.548% 24.135% 5.888% 1.372% 0.260% 0.260%
6. ChessFighter 3.6.0 0.004% 0.121% 1.891% 2.016% 8.445% 23.221% 41.926% 16.066% 7.262% 1.064% 1.061% 0.003%
7. FabChess 1.16 0.002% 0.054% 0.056% 0.404% 2.103% 14.159% 38.429% 33.843% 11.006% 10.942% 0.064%
8. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.002% 0.120% 0.122% 0.752% 3.281% 10.791% 30.273% 37.248% 17.533% 17.350% 0.183%
9. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.004% 0.004% 0.023% 0.256% 1.566% 7.970% 20.011% 70.170% 69.670% 0.500%
10. Bagatur 2.2 0.007% 0.039% 99.954% 0.704% 99.250%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 37.571%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev 28.674%
3. Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 7.194%
4. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 5.715%
5. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Halogen 20201128 5.056%
6. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 3.885%
7. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 3.321%
8. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev ChessFighter 3.6.0 1.466%
9. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Monolith 20200804 1.337%
10. Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev 1.143%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 51.854%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 36.672%
3. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 6.205%
4. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 2.710%
5. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 1.766%
6. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev 0.181%
7. MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.121%
8. Halogen 20201128 Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev 0.118%
9. Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.107%
10. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 0.081%

Speculate Seer 1.2.1_dev – Bagatur 2.2 1/2-1/2

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 1-3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev 69.405% 24.335% 4.949% 98.689% 1.051% 0.226% 0.032% 0.002%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev 25.832% 58.157% 12.579% 96.568% 3.059% 0.347% 0.024% 0.002%
3. Monolith 20200804 2.866% 10.407% 43.138% 56.411% 29.712% 10.824% 2.553% 0.432% 0.067% 0.001% 0.001%
4. Tucano 9.02_dev 1.802% 6.421% 31.633% 39.856% 38.666% 15.982% 4.491% 0.845% 0.152% 0.008% 0.008%
5. Halogen 20201128 0.064% 0.454% 5.793% 6.311% 18.017% 43.723% 24.324% 6.023% 1.334% 0.268% 0.263% 0.005%
6. ChessFighter 3.6.0 0.031% 0.224% 1.758% 2.013% 8.361% 23.445% 42.091% 16.003% 7.057% 1.030% 1.024% 0.006%
7. FabChess 1.16 0.002% 0.032% 0.034% 0.388% 2.120% 14.307% 38.630% 33.422% 11.099% 10.870% 0.229%
8. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.117% 0.117% 0.724% 3.072% 10.544% 29.967% 37.540% 18.036% 17.177% 0.859%
9. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.001% 0.001% 0.022% 0.261% 1.629% 8.047% 20.103% 69.937% 68.482% 1.455%
10. Bagatur 2.2 0.005% 0.049% 0.325% 99.621% 2.175% 97.446%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 29.667%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev 22.981%
3. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 11.605%
4. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 6.679%
5. Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 6.251%
6. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Halogen 20201128 3.606%
7. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 3.177%
8. Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev 2.228%
9. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 1.881%
10. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 1.875%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 51.989%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 35.784%
3. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 5.753%
4. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 2.963%
5. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 1.600%
6. Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.800%
7. Halogen 20201128 Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 0.216%
8. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev 0.208%
9. Halogen 20201128 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.138%
10. MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.115%

Speculate Seer 1.2.1_dev – Bagatur 2.2 0-1

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 1-3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev 46.237% 34.975% 13.416% 94.628% 4.004% 1.138% 0.206% 0.021% 0.003%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev 45.138% 40.359% 11.142% 96.639% 2.998% 0.329% 0.029% 0.005%
3. Monolith 20200804 5.474% 13.571% 38.578% 57.623% 28.531% 10.800% 2.505% 0.462% 0.071% 0.008% 0.008%
4. Tucano 9.02_dev 2.982% 9.368% 28.882% 41.232% 37.444% 15.754% 4.589% 0.810% 0.160% 0.011% 0.011%
5. Halogen 20201128 0.112% 1.277% 5.896% 7.285% 17.541% 43.114% 24.400% 5.975% 1.394% 0.291% 0.274% 0.017%
6. ChessFighter 3.6.0 0.056% 0.435% 1.924% 2.415% 8.347% 23.382% 41.998% 15.709% 7.048% 1.101% 1.077% 0.024%
7. FabChess 1.16 0.001% 0.005% 0.050% 0.056% 0.376% 2.090% 14.107% 38.946% 33.153% 11.272% 10.433% 0.839%
8. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.009% 0.109% 0.118% 0.732% 3.108% 10.534% 29.713% 36.761% 19.034% 16.290% 2.744%
9. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.001% 0.003% 0.004% 0.027% 0.282% 1.617% 8.027% 19.861% 70.182% 64.975% 5.207%
10. Bagatur 2.2 0.003% 0.015% 0.332% 1.549% 98.101% 6.932% 91.169%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 19.294%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 16.586%
3. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev 15.628%
4. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 9.623%
5. Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev 6.011%
6. Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 4.788%
7. Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 4.132%
8. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 2.833%
9. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Halogen 20201128 2.572%
10. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 2.361%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 49.920%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 34.240%
3. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 5.479%
4. Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 3.134%
5. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 2.865%
6. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 1.542%
7. Halogen 20201128 Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 0.889%
8. Halogen 20201128 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.667%
9. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 0.426%
10. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev 0.196%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 Seer 1.2.1/1.2.1_dev 8.0 12.54 1.13 1.52 61 29 7 2 1 0 0 0 0
2 Weiss 1.2-dev 8.0 11.98 1.09 2.01 32 46 14 5 2 1 0 0 0
3 Tucano 9.02_dev 7.0 10.35 1.14 3.81 3 12 32 25 15 8 3 1 0
4 Monolith 20200804 7.0 10.22 1.06 3.91 3 10 29 28 20 8 3 1 0
5 Halogen 20201128 6.0 9.48 1.08 4.97 0 2 12 23 28 20 9 4 1
6 ChessFighter 3.6.0 6.0 8.88 1.11 5.78 0 1 5 12 21 30 19 10 2
7 FabChess 1.16 5.0 7.76 1.14 7.28 0 0 1 2 6 16 27 30 16
8 MrBob 1.0.0_dev 5.0 7.73 1.06 7.32 0 0 1 2 6 14 29 32 16
9 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 4.5 6.64 1.05 8.48 0 0 0 0 1 3 10 21 60
10 Bagatur 2.2 2.5 4.42 1.05 9.91 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.11h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-12-05 05:08 61 Seer 1.2.1_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d
2020-12-05 06:14 62 Bagatur 2.2 Halogen 20201128
2020-12-05 07:20 63 Tucano 9.02_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev
2020-12-05 08:27 64 Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804
2020-12-05 09:33 65 FabChess 1.16 ChessFighter 3.6.0
2020-12-05 10:40 66 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d FabChess 1.16
2020-12-05 11:46 67 ChessFighter 3.6.0 Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-05 12:53 68 Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-05 13:59 69 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Bagatur 2.2
2020-12-05 15:05 70 Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev
2020-12-05 16:12 71 Halogen 20201128 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d
2020-12-05 17:18 72 Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev
2020-12-05 18:25 73 Bagatur 2.2 Monolith 20200804
2020-12-05 19:31 74 Tucano 9.02_dev ChessFighter 3.6.0
2020-12-05 20:37 75 Weiss 1.2-dev FabChess 1.16
2020-12-05 21:44 76 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-05 22:50 77 FabChess 1.16 Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-05 23:57 78 ChessFighter 3.6.0 Bagatur 2.2
2020-12-06 01:03 79 Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev
2020-12-06 02:10 80 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Halogen 20201128
2020-12-06 03:16 81 MrBob 1.0.0_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d
2020-12-06 04:22 82 Halogen 20201128 Monolith 20200804
2020-12-06 05:29 83 Seer 1.2.1_dev ChessFighter 3.6.0
2020-12-06 06:35 84 Bagatur 2.2 FabChess 1.16
2020-12-06 07:42 85 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-06 08:48 86 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-06 09:55 87 Weiss 1.2-dev Bagatur 2.2
2020-12-06 11:01 88 FabChess 1.16 Seer 1.2.1_dev
2020-12-06 12:07 89 ChessFighter 3.6.0 Halogen 20201128
2020-12-06 13:14 90 Monolith 20200804 MrBob 1.0.0_dev