For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 1-3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev 94.752% 5.017% 0.217% 99.986% 0.010% 0.003% 0.001%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev 4.676% 79.747% 12.358% 96.781% 2.884% 0.303% 0.031% 0.001%
3. Monolith 20200804 0.361% 9.163% 44.745% 54.269% 30.897% 11.533% 2.755% 0.487% 0.059%
4. Tucano 9.02_dev 0.196% 5.839% 34.438% 40.473% 38.378% 15.814% 4.350% 0.820% 0.163% 0.002% 0.002%
5. Halogen 20201128 0.012% 0.127% 6.258% 6.397% 18.373% 43.924% 24.144% 5.827% 1.212% 0.123% 0.123%
6. ChessFighter 3.6.0 0.003% 0.105% 1.822% 1.930% 8.285% 22.995% 42.906% 16.189% 7.333% 0.362% 0.361% 0.001%
7. FabChess 1.16 0.002% 0.052% 0.054% 0.406% 2.142% 14.377% 40.774% 36.588% 5.659% 5.599% 0.060%
8. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.110% 0.110% 0.766% 3.250% 11.103% 32.678% 41.409% 10.684% 10.540% 0.144%
9. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.001% 0.036% 0.333% 3.215% 13.161% 83.254% 82.056% 1.198%
10. Bagatur 2.2 0.009% 0.075% 99.916% 1.319% 98.597%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 40.715%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev 31.767%
3. Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 7.590%
4. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Halogen 20201128 5.594%
5. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 4.213%
6. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 2.452%
7. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev ChessFighter 3.6.0 1.513%
8. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Monolith 20200804 1.460%
9. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 1.375%
10. Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev 1.214%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 51.183%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 37.573%
3. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 6.191%
4. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 2.749%
5. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 1.672%
6. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev 0.204%
7. MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.108%
8. Halogen 20201128 Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev 0.107%
9. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 0.089%
10. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 0.050%

Speculate Bagatur 2.2 – Halogen 20201128 1-0

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 1-3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev 94.931% 4.868% 0.190% 99.989% 0.011%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev 4.508% 79.473% 12.813% 96.794% 2.955% 0.239% 0.012%
3. Monolith 20200804 0.358% 9.670% 47.829% 57.857% 34.044% 5.886% 1.832% 0.341% 0.039% 0.001% 0.001%
4. Tucano 9.02_dev 0.201% 5.884% 36.053% 42.138% 44.983% 10.076% 2.202% 0.481% 0.116% 0.004% 0.004%
5. ChessFighter 3.6.0 0.002% 0.095% 1.923% 2.020% 10.067% 39.608% 28.502% 13.163% 6.231% 0.409% 0.408% 0.001%
6. Halogen 20201128 0.006% 0.988% 0.994% 6.206% 33.893% 38.725% 14.567% 4.914% 0.701% 0.694% 0.007%
7. FabChess 1.16 0.004% 0.075% 0.079% 0.741% 4.992% 13.687% 37.133% 37.227% 6.141% 5.918% 0.223%
8. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.129% 0.129% 0.989% 5.226% 14.313% 30.776% 37.657% 10.910% 10.156% 0.754%
9. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.004% 0.080% 0.723% 3.471% 13.405% 82.317% 79.070% 3.247%
10. Bagatur 2.2 0.004% 0.068% 0.411% 99.517% 3.749% 95.768%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 43.580%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev 33.215%
3. Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 8.102%
4. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 4.223%
5. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 2.608%
6. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev ChessFighter 3.6.0 1.620%
7. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Monolith 20200804 1.547%
8. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 1.495%
9. Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev 1.286%
10. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Halogen 20201128 0.864%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 54.702%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 39.136%
3. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 2.930%
4. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 1.767%
5. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.984%
6. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev 0.195%
7. MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.129%
8. FabChess 1.16 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.065%
9. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 0.057%
10. Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.010%

Speculate Bagatur 2.2 – Halogen 20201128 1/2-1/2

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 1-3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev 94.843% 4.961% 0.182% 99.986% 0.014%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev 4.648% 79.481% 12.665% 96.794% 2.953% 0.236% 0.015% 0.002%
3. Monolith 20200804 0.321% 9.477% 46.148% 55.946% 31.501% 9.484% 2.538% 0.471% 0.059% 0.001% 0.001%
4. Tucano 9.02_dev 0.187% 5.947% 36.245% 42.379% 42.781% 11.125% 2.916% 0.652% 0.146% 0.001% 0.001%
5. Halogen 20201128 0.029% 2.565% 2.594% 11.718% 36.033% 38.464% 9.383% 1.620% 0.188% 0.188%
6. ChessFighter 3.6.0 0.001% 0.101% 2.011% 2.113% 9.720% 36.635% 29.777% 14.329% 7.013% 0.413% 0.412% 0.001%
7. FabChess 1.16 0.003% 0.050% 0.053% 0.473% 2.129% 13.942% 40.671% 36.769% 5.963% 5.920% 0.043%
8. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.001% 0.134% 0.135% 0.838% 4.311% 11.968% 31.108% 40.811% 10.829% 10.647% 0.182%
9. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.002% 0.047% 0.380% 3.380% 13.520% 82.671% 81.988% 0.683%
10. Bagatur 2.2 0.004% 0.062% 99.934% 0.843% 99.091%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 41.951%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev 33.431%
3. Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 7.911%
4. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 4.288%
5. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 2.562%
6. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Halogen 20201128 2.229%
7. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev ChessFighter 3.6.0 1.694%
8. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Monolith 20200804 1.530%
9. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 1.522%
10. Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev 1.248%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 52.831%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 39.413%
3. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 2.851%
4. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 2.511%
5. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 1.849%
6. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev 0.207%
7. MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.131%
8. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 0.054%
9. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 0.047%
10. FabChess 1.16 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.045%

Speculate Bagatur 2.2 – Halogen 20201128 0-1

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 3. 1-3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev 94.711% 5.072% 0.194% 99.977% 0.021% 0.002%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev 4.765% 79.949% 12.097% 96.811% 2.736% 0.397% 0.053% 0.003%
3. Monolith 20200804 0.314% 8.796% 42.357% 51.467% 28.496% 16.176% 3.226% 0.574% 0.060% 0.001% 0.001%
4. Tucano 9.02_dev 0.190% 5.730% 34.686% 40.606% 34.832% 18.103% 5.351% 0.941% 0.166% 0.001% 0.001%
5. Halogen 20201128 0.018% 0.340% 8.619% 8.977% 24.856% 40.059% 22.576% 3.244% 0.262% 0.026% 0.026%
6. ChessFighter 3.6.0 0.002% 0.106% 1.886% 1.994% 8.267% 21.548% 42.886% 17.217% 7.641% 0.447% 0.447%
7. FabChess 1.16 0.005% 0.031% 0.036% 0.189% 1.217% 15.369% 41.076% 36.408% 5.705% 5.693% 0.012%
8. MrBob 1.0.0_dev 0.002% 0.130% 0.132% 0.600% 2.484% 10.306% 33.731% 42.070% 10.677% 10.656% 0.021%
9. A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 0.003% 0.014% 0.233% 3.214% 13.391% 83.145% 82.952% 0.193%
10. Bagatur 2.2 0.002% 99.998% 0.224% 99.774%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2. 3.
1. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804 38.434%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev 32.106%
3. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev Halogen 20201128 7.628%
4. Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 Weiss 1.2-dev 7.391%
5. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 4.076%
6. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 2.346%
7. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev ChessFighter 3.6.0 1.622%
8. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 1.439%
9. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Monolith 20200804 1.372%
10. Seer 1.2.1_dev Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev 1.064%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 48.542%
2. Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 37.800%
3. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 8.526%
4. Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 2.518%
5. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 1.760%
6. Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 0.231%
7. Halogen 20201128 Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev 0.202%
8. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev 0.181%
9. MrBob 1.0.0_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 0.131%
10. ChessFighter 3.6.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev 0.041%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 Seer 1.2.1/1.2.1_dev 10.0 13.04 0.97 1.27 77 20 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Weiss 1.2-dev 8.0 11.99 1.09 2.14 20 56 15 5 2 0 0 0 0
3 Tucano 9.02_dev 7.0 10.37 1.14 3.82 1 12 34 26 15 8 3 1 0
4 Monolith 20200804 7.0 10.21 1.05 3.96 1 9 30 28 20 8 2 1 0
5 Halogen 20201128 6.0 9.48 1.08 4.97 0 2 13 24 29 20 9 4 1
6 ChessFighter 3.6.0 6.0 8.86 1.10 5.79 0 1 5 12 21 31 19 10 1
7 FabChess 1.16 5.0 7.76 1.14 7.21 0 0 1 2 7 16 28 32 13
8 MrBob 1.0.0_dev 5.0 7.72 1.05 7.26 0 0 1 2 6 14 31 34 12
9 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d 4.5 6.35 0.96 8.64 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 18 69
10 Bagatur 2.2 2.5 4.20 0.97 9.94 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.10h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-12-05 07:03 63 Tucano 9.02_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev
2020-12-05 08:09 64 Weiss 1.2-dev Monolith 20200804
2020-12-05 09:15 65 FabChess 1.16 ChessFighter 3.6.0
2020-12-05 10:21 66 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d FabChess 1.16
2020-12-05 11:27 67 ChessFighter 3.6.0 Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-05 12:34 68 Monolith 20200804 Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-05 13:40 69 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Bagatur 2.2
2020-12-05 14:46 70 Halogen 20201128 Seer 1.2.1_dev
2020-12-05 15:52 71 Halogen 20201128 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d
2020-12-05 16:58 72 Seer 1.2.1_dev MrBob 1.0.0_dev
2020-12-05 18:04 73 Bagatur 2.2 Monolith 20200804
2020-12-05 19:10 74 Tucano 9.02_dev ChessFighter 3.6.0
2020-12-05 20:17 75 Weiss 1.2-dev FabChess 1.16
2020-12-05 21:23 76 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-05 22:29 77 FabChess 1.16 Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-05 23:35 78 ChessFighter 3.6.0 Bagatur 2.2
2020-12-06 00:41 79 Monolith 20200804 Seer 1.2.1_dev
2020-12-06 01:47 80 MrBob 1.0.0_dev Halogen 20201128
2020-12-06 02:53 81 MrBob 1.0.0_dev A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d
2020-12-06 04:00 82 Halogen 20201128 Monolith 20200804
2020-12-06 05:06 83 Seer 1.2.1_dev ChessFighter 3.6.0
2020-12-06 06:12 84 Bagatur 2.2 FabChess 1.16
2020-12-06 07:18 85 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-06 08:24 86 A0lite v0.1.2_BadGyalXL9d Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-06 09:30 87 Weiss 1.2-dev Bagatur 2.2
2020-12-06 10:36 88 FabChess 1.16 Seer 1.2.1_dev
2020-12-06 11:42 89 ChessFighter 3.6.0 Halogen 20201128
2020-12-06 12:49 90 Monolith 20200804 MrBob 1.0.0_dev