For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Combusken 1.4.0 50.476% 21.779% 72.255% 12.924% 7.376% 4.138% 2.053% 0.812% 0.325% 0.117% 0.102% 0.015%
2. Minic 3.01_ne_nu 24.426% 26.766% 51.192% 19.917% 12.841% 7.688% 4.435% 2.376% 1.043% 0.508% 0.375% 0.133%
3. Weiss 1.2-dev 15.297% 25.459% 40.756% 23.450% 16.189% 10.244% 5.909% 2.512% 0.741% 0.199% 0.167% 0.032%
4. Seer 1.2.1_dev 4.081% 10.888% 14.969% 16.965% 21.197% 19.503% 15.028% 8.017% 3.226% 1.095% 0.948% 0.147%
5. Nemorino 6.03_NNUE 3.934% 8.169% 12.103% 11.585% 14.912% 16.553% 16.665% 13.112% 8.777% 6.293% 4.707% 1.586%
6. Tucano 9.02_dev 1.123% 4.358% 5.481% 9.795% 16.960% 22.348% 21.967% 13.870% 6.703% 2.876% 2.328% 0.548%
7. Counter 3.7dev2 0.632% 2.305% 2.937% 4.216% 7.076% 10.869% 15.040% 19.918% 17.522% 22.422% 14.376% 8.046%
8. Topple 0.7.5-20200605 0.023% 0.192% 0.215% 0.794% 2.411% 5.535% 10.970% 19.291% 26.364% 34.420% 23.111% 11.309%
9. Pirarucu 3.3.5 0.002% 0.032% 0.034% 0.154% 0.497% 1.777% 5.016% 13.939% 24.495% 54.088% 34.365% 19.723%
10. Marvin 5.0.0-a9 0.006% 0.052% 0.058% 0.200% 0.541% 1.345% 2.917% 6.153% 10.804% 77.982% 19.521% 58.461%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Combusken 1.4.0 Minic 3.01_ne_nu 19.326%
2. Combusken 1.4.0 Weiss 1.2-dev 16.165%
3. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Combusken 1.4.0 11.356%
4. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Weiss 1.2-dev 6.965%
5. Weiss 1.2-dev Combusken 1.4.0 6.769%
6. Combusken 1.4.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev 6.249%
7. Weiss 1.2-dev Minic 3.01_ne_nu 5.042%
8. Combusken 1.4.0 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE 4.550%
9. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Seer 1.2.1_dev 2.413%
10. Combusken 1.4.0 Tucano 9.02_dev 2.385%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Combusken 1.4.0 Minic 3.01_ne_nu 30.682%
2. Combusken 1.4.0 Weiss 1.2-dev 22.934%
3. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Weiss 1.2-dev 12.007%
4. Combusken 1.4.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev 7.780%
5. Combusken 1.4.0 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE 6.013%
6. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Seer 1.2.1_dev 3.431%
7. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Nemorino 6.03_NNUE 3.210%
8. Combusken 1.4.0 Tucano 9.02_dev 2.853%
9. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 2.703%
10. Nemorino 6.03_NNUE Weiss 1.2-dev 1.966%

Speculate Marvin 5.0.0-a9 – Minic 3.01_ne_nu 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Combusken 1.4.0 61.286% 18.561% 79.847% 9.543% 5.263% 2.956% 1.465% 0.607% 0.208% 0.111% 0.081% 0.030%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev 18.091% 30.436% 48.527% 20.562% 13.741% 8.862% 5.074% 2.225% 0.757% 0.252% 0.211% 0.041%
3. Minic 3.01_ne_nu 7.696% 16.136% 23.832% 19.439% 18.049% 14.130% 10.652% 7.052% 4.060% 2.786% 2.051% 0.735%
4. Seer 1.2.1_dev 5.574% 14.738% 20.312% 19.492% 19.259% 16.519% 12.738% 7.082% 3.216% 1.382% 1.130% 0.252%
5. Nemorino 6.03_NNUE 4.995% 10.383% 15.378% 12.741% 14.573% 15.252% 14.375% 11.733% 8.369% 7.579% 5.009% 2.570%
6. Tucano 9.02_dev 1.524% 5.963% 7.487% 10.522% 15.786% 20.080% 19.710% 14.136% 7.848% 4.431% 3.482% 0.949%
7. Counter 3.7dev2 0.718% 3.006% 3.724% 5.210% 7.470% 10.434% 13.891% 17.196% 16.181% 25.894% 13.942% 11.952%
8. Topple 0.7.5-20200605 0.031% 0.305% 0.336% 1.134% 2.770% 5.656% 10.079% 16.925% 22.661% 40.439% 22.800% 17.639%
9. Pirarucu 3.3.5 0.008% 0.050% 0.058% 0.171% 0.545% 1.615% 4.398% 11.031% 19.962% 62.220% 29.824% 32.396%
10. Marvin 5.0.0-a9 0.077% 0.422% 0.499% 1.186% 2.544% 4.496% 7.618% 12.013% 16.738% 54.906% 21.470% 33.436%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Combusken 1.4.0 Weiss 1.2-dev 24.907%
2. Combusken 1.4.0 Minic 3.01_ne_nu 11.306%
3. Combusken 1.4.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev 10.390%
4. Weiss 1.2-dev Combusken 1.4.0 9.672%
5. Combusken 1.4.0 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE 7.365%
6. Combusken 1.4.0 Tucano 9.02_dev 4.342%
7. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Combusken 1.4.0 3.265%
8. Weiss 1.2-dev Minic 3.01_ne_nu 3.159%
9. Seer 1.2.1_dev Combusken 1.4.0 2.522%
10. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 2.499%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Combusken 1.4.0 Weiss 1.2-dev 34.579%
2. Combusken 1.4.0 Minic 3.01_ne_nu 14.571%
3. Combusken 1.4.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev 12.912%
4. Combusken 1.4.0 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE 9.511%
5. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Weiss 1.2-dev 5.317%
6. Combusken 1.4.0 Tucano 9.02_dev 5.026%
7. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 4.043%
8. Nemorino 6.03_NNUE Weiss 1.2-dev 2.856%
9. Combusken 1.4.0 Counter 3.7dev2 2.679%
10. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Seer 1.2.1_dev 1.677%

Speculate Marvin 5.0.0-a9 – Minic 3.01_ne_nu 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Combusken 1.4.0 57.390% 19.257% 76.647% 10.584% 6.450% 3.532% 1.809% 0.661% 0.218% 0.099% 0.080% 0.019%
2. Weiss 1.2-dev 16.636% 27.667% 44.303% 21.803% 15.032% 9.666% 5.830% 2.473% 0.706% 0.187% 0.171% 0.016%
3. Minic 3.01_ne_nu 14.844% 23.724% 38.568% 22.519% 16.549% 10.687% 6.286% 3.288% 1.510% 0.593% 0.482% 0.111%
4. Seer 1.2.1_dev 4.861% 12.714% 17.575% 17.707% 20.225% 18.804% 14.094% 7.599% 2.927% 1.069% 0.923% 0.146%
5. Nemorino 6.03_NNUE 4.430% 8.976% 13.406% 11.880% 14.730% 16.353% 16.079% 12.735% 8.250% 6.567% 4.503% 2.064%
6. Tucano 9.02_dev 1.167% 4.742% 5.909% 9.805% 16.185% 21.468% 22.121% 14.055% 7.134% 3.323% 2.635% 0.688%
7. Counter 3.7dev2 0.635% 2.608% 3.243% 4.519% 7.349% 10.792% 14.965% 19.495% 16.928% 22.709% 13.700% 9.009%
8. Topple 0.7.5-20200605 0.025% 0.232% 0.257% 0.884% 2.384% 5.517% 10.560% 18.940% 25.493% 35.965% 22.795% 13.170%
9. Pirarucu 3.3.5 0.004% 0.028% 0.032% 0.128% 0.499% 1.576% 4.640% 13.020% 23.823% 56.282% 32.896% 23.386%
10. Marvin 5.0.0-a9 0.008% 0.052% 0.060% 0.171% 0.597% 1.605% 3.616% 7.734% 13.011% 73.206% 21.815% 51.391%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Combusken 1.4.0 Weiss 1.2-dev 20.758%
2. Combusken 1.4.0 Minic 3.01_ne_nu 17.113%
3. Combusken 1.4.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev 8.378%
4. Weiss 1.2-dev Combusken 1.4.0 8.151%
5. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Combusken 1.4.0 6.572%
6. Combusken 1.4.0 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE 5.873%
7. Weiss 1.2-dev Minic 3.01_ne_nu 4.447%
8. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Weiss 1.2-dev 4.164%
9. Combusken 1.4.0 Tucano 9.02_dev 3.045%
10. Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev 2.018%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Combusken 1.4.0 Weiss 1.2-dev 28.909%
2. Combusken 1.4.0 Minic 3.01_ne_nu 23.685%
3. Combusken 1.4.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev 10.372%
4. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Weiss 1.2-dev 8.611%
5. Combusken 1.4.0 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE 7.704%
6. Combusken 1.4.0 Tucano 9.02_dev 3.544%
7. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 3.251%
8. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Seer 1.2.1_dev 2.675%
9. Nemorino 6.03_NNUE Weiss 1.2-dev 2.281%
10. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Nemorino 6.03_NNUE 2.274%

Speculate Marvin 5.0.0-a9 – Minic 3.01_ne_nu 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Combusken 1.4.0 46.879% 23.085% 69.964% 14.178% 7.911% 4.447% 2.257% 0.848% 0.294% 0.101% 0.094% 0.007%
2. Minic 3.01_ne_nu 31.340% 30.680% 62.020% 18.905% 10.266% 4.892% 2.414% 1.060% 0.357% 0.086% 0.079% 0.007%
3. Weiss 1.2-dev 13.542% 23.628% 37.170% 25.074% 17.132% 10.938% 6.251% 2.594% 0.705% 0.136% 0.125% 0.011%
4. Seer 1.2.1_dev 3.537% 9.446% 12.983% 15.981% 22.049% 20.454% 15.878% 8.506% 3.242% 0.907% 0.841% 0.066%
5. Nemorino 6.03_NNUE 3.295% 7.231% 10.526% 11.600% 15.632% 17.291% 16.989% 13.664% 8.747% 5.551% 4.435% 1.116%
6. Tucano 9.02_dev 0.855% 3.786% 4.641% 9.584% 17.449% 23.191% 22.598% 13.839% 6.351% 2.347% 1.996% 0.351%
7. Counter 3.7dev2 0.529% 1.965% 2.494% 3.902% 6.855% 11.081% 15.820% 20.885% 18.399% 20.564% 14.402% 6.162%
8. Topple 0.7.5-20200605 0.019% 0.158% 0.177% 0.627% 2.084% 5.549% 11.115% 20.434% 27.910% 32.104% 23.966% 8.138%
9. Pirarucu 3.3.5 0.004% 0.018% 0.022% 0.134% 0.517% 1.695% 5.327% 14.698% 26.463% 51.144% 37.357% 13.787%
10. Marvin 5.0.0-a9 0.003% 0.003% 0.015% 0.105% 0.462% 1.351% 3.472% 7.532% 87.060% 16.705% 70.355%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Combusken 1.4.0 Minic 3.01_ne_nu 22.717%
2. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Combusken 1.4.0 14.578%
3. Combusken 1.4.0 Weiss 1.2-dev 12.928%
4. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Weiss 1.2-dev 8.878%
5. Weiss 1.2-dev Combusken 1.4.0 5.569%
6. Weiss 1.2-dev Minic 3.01_ne_nu 5.523%
7. Combusken 1.4.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev 4.821%
8. Combusken 1.4.0 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE 3.386%
9. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Seer 1.2.1_dev 3.038%
10. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Nemorino 6.03_NNUE 2.819%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Combusken 1.4.0 Minic 3.01_ne_nu 37.295%
2. Combusken 1.4.0 Weiss 1.2-dev 18.497%
3. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Weiss 1.2-dev 14.401%
4. Combusken 1.4.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev 6.105%
5. Combusken 1.4.0 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE 4.519%
6. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Seer 1.2.1_dev 4.100%
7. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Nemorino 6.03_NNUE 3.890%
8. Combusken 1.4.0 Tucano 9.02_dev 2.031%
9. Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev 2.021%
10. Minic 3.01_ne_nu Tucano 9.02_dev 1.705%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 Combusken 1.4.0 3.5 12.50 2.24 2.30 47 21 13 8 5 3 2 1 1
2 Minic 3.01_ne_nu/3.01 3.0 11.60 2.18 2.94 27 25 17 11 8 5 3 2 1
3 Weiss 1.2-dev 3.0 11.01 1.86 3.36 14 23 22 16 11 7 4 2 1
4 Seer 1.2.1/1.2.1_dev 2.5 9.80 1.77 4.55 5 11 16 19 18 14 9 5 2
5 Tucano 9.02_dev 2.5 9.26 1.72 5.19 2 6 12 17 19 17 13 8 4
6 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE 2.5 8.85 2.27 5.66 4 8 10 12 13 14 13 12 10
7 Counter 3.7dev2 1.5 7.90 2.24 6.64 1 4 6 9 11 13 15 15 16
8 Topple 0.7.5-20200605 1.0 7.19 1.77 7.47 0 1 2 4 8 12 18 22 22
9 Pirarucu 3.3.5 1.0 6.82 1.62 7.89 0 0 1 2 5 10 17 23 27
10 Marvin 5.0.0-a9 0.5 5.07 2.20 8.99 0 0 1 1 2 4 6 10 17

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-12-07 12:53 23 Topple 0.7.5-20200605 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE
2020-12-07 13:58 24 Counter 3.7dev2 Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-07 15:03 25 Combusken 1.4.0 Seer 1.2.1_dev
2020-12-07 16:08 26 Tucano 9.02_dev Seer 1.2.1_dev
2020-12-07 17:13 27 Weiss 1.2-dev Combusken 1.4.0
2020-12-07 18:18 28 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE Counter 3.7dev2
2020-12-07 19:23 29 Minic 3.01_ne_nu Topple 0.7.5-20200605
2020-12-07 20:28 30 Pirarucu 3.3.5 Marvin 5.0.0-a9
2020-12-07 21:33 31 Marvin 5.0.0-a9 Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-07 22:38 32 Topple 0.7.5-20200605 Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-12-07 23:43 33 Counter 3.7dev2 Minic 3.01_ne_nu
2020-12-08 00:48 34 Combusken 1.4.0 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE
2020-12-08 01:53 35 Seer 1.2.1_dev Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-08 02:58 36 Tucano 9.02_dev Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-08 04:03 37 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE Seer 1.2.1_dev
2020-12-08 05:08 38 Minic 3.01_ne_nu Combusken 1.4.0
2020-12-08 06:13 39 Pirarucu 3.3.5 Counter 3.7dev2
2020-12-08 07:18 40 Marvin 5.0.0-a9 Topple 0.7.5-20200605
2020-12-08 08:23 41 Topple 0.7.5-20200605 Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-08 09:28 42 Counter 3.7dev2 Marvin 5.0.0-a9
2020-12-08 10:33 43 Combusken 1.4.0 Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-12-08 11:38 44 Seer 1.2.1_dev Minic 3.01_ne_nu
2020-12-08 12:43 45 Weiss 1.2-dev Nemorino 6.03_NNUE
2020-12-08 13:48 46 Tucano 9.02_dev Nemorino 6.03_NNUE
2020-12-08 14:53 47 Weiss 1.2-dev Minic 3.01_ne_nu
2020-12-08 15:58 48 Seer 1.2.1_dev Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-12-08 17:03 49 Combusken 1.4.0 Marvin 5.0.0-a9
2020-12-08 18:08 50 Counter 3.7dev2 Topple 0.7.5-20200605
2020-12-08 19:13 51 Counter 3.7dev2 Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-08 20:18 52 Topple 0.7.5-20200605 Combusken 1.4.0
2020-12-08 21:23 53 Marvin 5.0.0-a9 Seer 1.2.1_dev
2020-12-08 22:28 54 Pirarucu 3.3.5 Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-08 23:33 55 Minic 3.01_ne_nu Nemorino 6.03_NNUE
2020-12-09 00:38 56 Tucano 9.02_dev Minic 3.01_ne_nu
2020-12-09 01:43 57 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-12-09 02:48 58 Weiss 1.2-dev Marvin 5.0.0-a9
2020-12-09 03:53 59 Seer 1.2.1_dev Topple 0.7.5-20200605
2020-12-09 04:58 60 Combusken 1.4.0 Counter 3.7dev2
2020-12-09 06:03 61 Combusken 1.4.0 Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-09 07:08 62 Counter 3.7dev2 Seer 1.2.1_dev
2020-12-09 08:13 63 Topple 0.7.5-20200605 Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-09 09:18 64 Marvin 5.0.0-a9 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE
2020-12-09 10:23 65 Pirarucu 3.3.5 Minic 3.01_ne_nu
2020-12-09 11:28 66 Tucano 9.02_dev Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-12-09 12:33 67 Minic 3.01_ne_nu Marvin 5.0.0-a9
2020-12-09 13:38 68 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE Topple 0.7.5-20200605
2020-12-09 14:43 69 Weiss 1.2-dev Counter 3.7dev2
2020-12-09 15:48 70 Seer 1.2.1_dev Combusken 1.4.0
2020-12-09 16:53 71 Seer 1.2.1_dev Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-09 17:58 72 Combusken 1.4.0 Weiss 1.2-dev
2020-12-09 19:03 73 Counter 3.7dev2 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE
2020-12-09 20:08 74 Topple 0.7.5-20200605 Minic 3.01_ne_nu
2020-12-09 21:13 75 Marvin 5.0.0-a9 Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-12-09 22:18 76 Tucano 9.02_dev Marvin 5.0.0-a9
2020-12-09 23:23 77 Pirarucu 3.3.5 Topple 0.7.5-20200605
2020-12-10 00:28 78 Minic 3.01_ne_nu Counter 3.7dev2
2020-12-10 01:33 79 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE Combusken 1.4.0
2020-12-10 02:38 80 Weiss 1.2-dev Seer 1.2.1_dev
2020-12-10 03:43 81 Weiss 1.2-dev Tucano 9.02_dev
2020-12-10 04:48 82 Seer 1.2.1_dev Nemorino 6.03_NNUE
2020-12-10 05:53 83 Combusken 1.4.0 Minic 3.01_ne_nu
2020-12-10 06:58 84 Counter 3.7dev2 Pirarucu 3.3.5
2020-12-10 08:03 85 Topple 0.7.5-20200605 Marvin 5.0.0-a9
2020-12-10 09:08 86 Tucano 9.02_dev Topple 0.7.5-20200605
2020-12-10 10:13 87 Marvin 5.0.0-a9 Counter 3.7dev2
2020-12-10 11:18 88 Pirarucu 3.3.5 Combusken 1.4.0
2020-12-10 12:23 89 Minic 3.01_ne_nu Seer 1.2.1_dev
2020-12-10 13:28 90 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE Weiss 1.2-dev