For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 42.892% 29.605% 72.497% 14.950% 7.292% 3.425% 1.301% 0.396% 0.110% 0.029% 0.027% 0.002%
2. Pedone 20201206 34.318% 27.987% 62.305% 16.781% 9.881% 5.796% 3.150% 1.278% 0.542% 0.267% 0.219% 0.048%
3. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 12.983% 20.745% 33.728% 27.912% 19.939% 10.921% 4.856% 1.790% 0.651% 0.203% 0.171% 0.032%
4. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 5.088% 12.232% 17.320% 22.412% 29.230% 16.946% 8.202% 3.644% 1.570% 0.676% 0.563% 0.113%
5. Winter 9.1 3.000% 5.245% 8.245% 8.685% 14.608% 23.997% 22.299% 12.039% 5.888% 4.239% 2.973% 1.266%
6. Fritz 17_20200830 1.568% 3.516% 5.084% 7.023% 12.309% 21.816% 23.600% 15.196% 9.102% 5.870% 4.553% 1.317%
7. Minic 3.01_ne_nu 0.064% 0.310% 0.374% 1.020% 3.177% 7.933% 14.687% 22.662% 23.632% 26.515% 17.933% 8.582%
8. Seer 1.2.1_20201210 0.058% 0.236% 0.294% 0.765% 2.153% 5.422% 12.052% 21.463% 23.277% 34.574% 19.697% 14.877%
9. Arasan 22.1_d5259e9 0.029% 0.118% 0.147% 0.392% 1.207% 2.910% 7.111% 13.782% 20.916% 53.535% 29.531% 24.004%
10. Wasp 4.10 0.006% 0.006% 0.060% 0.204% 0.834% 2.742% 7.750% 14.312% 74.092% 24.333% 49.759%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Pedone 20201206 20.892%
2. Pedone 20201206 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 19.712%
3. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 11.849%
4. Pedone 20201206 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 7.705%
5. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Defenchess 2.3_dev2 5.601%
6. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 5.262%
7. Pedone 20201206 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 4.598%
8. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 Pedone 20201206 4.314%
9. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Winter 9.1 2.597%
10. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 2.387%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Pedone 20201206 40.604%
2. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 17.111%
3. Pedone 20201206 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 12.019%
4. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 7.988%
5. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Pedone 20201206 5.902%
6. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Winter 9.1 4.098%
7. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 2.427%
8. Fritz 17_20200830 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 2.356%
9. Pedone 20201206 Winter 9.1 2.019%
10. Fritz 17_20200830 Pedone 20201206 1.511%

Speculate Winter 9.1 – Pedone 20201206 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 51.167% 23.715% 74.882% 12.917% 6.743% 3.402% 1.438% 0.462% 0.133% 0.023% 0.023%
2. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 16.533% 23.429% 39.962% 21.988% 17.315% 11.475% 6.179% 2.164% 0.687% 0.230% 0.188% 0.042%
3. Pedone 20201206 15.277% 20.778% 36.055% 19.542% 16.721% 13.304% 8.389% 3.738% 1.536% 0.715% 0.590% 0.125%
4. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 7.184% 14.661% 21.845% 20.059% 22.808% 18.485% 9.792% 4.413% 1.820% 0.778% 0.648% 0.130%
5. Winter 9.1 7.801% 12.401% 20.202% 16.052% 18.927% 20.634% 14.879% 6.074% 2.203% 1.029% 0.795% 0.234%
6. Fritz 17_20200830 1.859% 4.215% 6.074% 7.162% 11.730% 18.355% 24.730% 16.332% 9.475% 6.142% 4.820% 1.322%
7. Minic 3.01_ne_nu 0.098% 0.396% 0.494% 1.059% 2.644% 6.301% 13.879% 23.361% 25.007% 27.255% 18.541% 8.714%
8. Seer 1.2.1_20201210 0.050% 0.249% 0.299% 0.761% 1.913% 4.774% 11.876% 22.083% 23.604% 34.690% 19.977% 14.713%
9. Arasan 22.1_d5259e9 0.031% 0.148% 0.179% 0.413% 1.045% 2.629% 6.658% 13.969% 21.028% 54.079% 29.879% 24.200%
10. Wasp 4.10 0.008% 0.008% 0.047% 0.154% 0.641% 2.180% 7.404% 14.507% 75.059% 24.539% 50.520%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 17.742%
2. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Pedone 20201206 14.221%
3. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Defenchess 2.3_dev2 8.859%
4. Pedone 20201206 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 8.201%
5. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Winter 9.1 7.553%
6. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 7.051%
7. Winter 9.1 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 3.842%
8. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 3.684%
9. Pedone 20201206 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 3.497%
10. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 Pedone 20201206 2.960%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 24.793%
2. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Pedone 20201206 22.422%
3. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 12.543%
4. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Winter 9.1 11.395%
5. Pedone 20201206 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 6.457%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 3.897%
7. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 Winter 9.1 3.620%
8. Fritz 17_20200830 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 3.242%
9. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Pedone 20201206 3.222%
10. Pedone 20201206 Winter 9.1 3.019%

Speculate Winter 9.1 – Pedone 20201206 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 46.588% 27.247% 73.835% 14.296% 7.041% 3.105% 1.214% 0.382% 0.098% 0.029% 0.023% 0.006%
2. Pedone 20201206 31.248% 31.269% 62.517% 18.328% 10.047% 5.217% 2.487% 0.919% 0.352% 0.133% 0.108% 0.025%
3. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 13.506% 20.772% 34.278% 28.080% 20.155% 10.331% 4.656% 1.748% 0.562% 0.190% 0.159% 0.031%
4. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 5.430% 12.527% 17.957% 22.908% 29.611% 16.320% 7.634% 3.382% 1.509% 0.679% 0.551% 0.128%
5. Winter 9.1 1.476% 3.541% 5.017% 6.785% 13.335% 24.567% 25.936% 13.749% 6.393% 4.218% 2.972% 1.246%
6. Fritz 17_20200830 1.606% 3.919% 5.525% 7.368% 13.071% 23.124% 21.808% 14.505% 8.809% 5.790% 4.505% 1.285%
7. Minic 3.01_ne_nu 0.074% 0.315% 0.389% 1.114% 3.278% 8.237% 14.756% 22.111% 23.647% 26.468% 17.882% 8.586%
8. Seer 1.2.1_20201210 0.037% 0.259% 0.296% 0.716% 2.088% 5.277% 11.880% 21.595% 23.560% 34.588% 19.931% 14.657%
9. Arasan 22.1_d5259e9 0.034% 0.144% 0.178% 0.361% 1.136% 2.904% 6.889% 13.866% 20.751% 53.915% 29.814% 24.101%
10. Wasp 4.10 0.001% 0.007% 0.008% 0.044% 0.238% 0.918% 2.740% 7.743% 14.319% 73.990% 24.055% 49.935%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Pedone 20201206 24.723%
2. Pedone 20201206 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 16.746%
3. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 11.948%
4. Pedone 20201206 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 7.828%
5. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 6.311%
6. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Defenchess 2.3_dev2 5.888%
7. Pedone 20201206 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 4.643%
8. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 Pedone 20201206 4.042%
9. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 2.804%
10. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Fritz 17_20200830 2.045%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Pedone 20201206 41.469%
2. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 18.259%
3. Pedone 20201206 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 11.870%
4. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 8.692%
5. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Pedone 20201206 5.981%
6. Fritz 17_20200830 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 2.745%
7. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 2.453%
8. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Winter 9.1 2.299%
9. Fritz 17_20200830 Pedone 20201206 1.479%
10. Pedone 20201206 Winter 9.1 1.454%

Speculate Winter 9.1 – Pedone 20201206 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-10. 9. 10.
1. Pedone 20201206 51.879% 30.145% 82.024% 11.458% 4.289% 1.571% 0.463% 0.137% 0.044% 0.014% 0.012% 0.002%
2. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 34.702% 35.995% 70.697% 17.517% 7.547% 2.947% 0.925% 0.292% 0.058% 0.017% 0.011% 0.006%
3. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 8.809% 18.587% 27.396% 34.078% 22.760% 10.348% 3.507% 1.266% 0.470% 0.175% 0.149% 0.026%
4. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 3.273% 10.741% 14.014% 24.642% 35.110% 15.388% 6.360% 2.757% 1.209% 0.520% 0.428% 0.092%
5. Fritz 17_20200830 1.061% 3.167% 4.228% 7.311% 14.517% 27.428% 20.368% 13.309% 7.786% 5.053% 3.881% 1.172%
6. Winter 9.1 0.193% 0.821% 1.014% 2.606% 7.417% 19.649% 26.267% 18.779% 12.385% 11.883% 7.730% 4.153%
7. Minic 3.01_ne_nu 0.037% 0.275% 0.312% 1.139% 3.943% 10.291% 17.126% 21.580% 21.256% 24.353% 16.304% 8.049%
8. Seer 1.2.1_20201210 0.030% 0.184% 0.214% 0.843% 2.765% 7.188% 13.158% 20.025% 22.319% 33.488% 19.191% 14.297%
9. Arasan 22.1_d5259e9 0.016% 0.078% 0.094% 0.365% 1.385% 4.033% 8.141% 13.647% 20.383% 51.952% 28.358% 23.594%
10. Wasp 4.10 0.007% 0.007% 0.041% 0.267% 1.157% 3.685% 8.208% 14.090% 72.545% 23.936% 48.609%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Pedone 20201206 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 30.456%
2. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Pedone 20201206 24.332%
3. Pedone 20201206 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 12.303%
4. Pedone 20201206 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 6.681%
5. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 5.820%
6. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 Pedone 20201206 3.912%
7. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 3.608%
8. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Defenchess 2.3_dev2 3.133%
9. Pedone 20201206 Fritz 17_20200830 1.618%
10. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 1.412%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Pedone 20201206 54.788%
2. Pedone 20201206 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 16.215%
3. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 9.428%
4. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Pedone 20201206 7.981%
5. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 4.545%
6. Fritz 17_20200830 Pedone 20201206 2.119%
7. Fritz 17_20200830 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 1.467%
8. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 1.193%
9. Pedone 20201206 Winter 9.1 0.577%
10. Fritz 17_20200830 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 0.407%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE/6.04_NNUE 6.0 11.02 1.36 2.59 33 24 17 11 7 4 2 1 0
2 Pedone 20201206 5.5 10.58 1.60 3.28 25 20 16 13 10 7 5 3 1
3 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 5.5 10.40 1.48 3.45 20 19 18 15 11 8 5 3 1
4 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 5.0 10.05 1.30 3.88 10 17 19 19 15 10 6 3 1
5 Winter 9.1 4.0 9.30 1.63 5.04 7 10 12 13 14 14 11 9 6
6 Fritz 17_20200830 4.5 8.95 1.47 5.60 3 6 10 13 16 16 14 11 7
7 Minic 3.01_ne_nu/3.01 3.5 8.16 1.36 6.81 1 2 4 7 11 16 19 18 14
8 Seer 1.2.1/1.2.1_dev/1.2.1_20201210 3.5 7.80 1.31 7.37 0 1 2 5 8 13 18 22 19
9 Arasan 22.1_d5259e9 3.5 7.19 1.45 8.12 0 1 1 3 5 8 12 18 25
10 Wasp 4.10/4.10 copy 3.0 6.57 1.36 8.86 0 0 0 1 2 4 8 14 24

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.08h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-12-15 17:53 46 Fritz 17_20200830 Pedone 20201206
2020-12-15 18:57 47 Winter 9.1 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19
2020-12-15 20:02 48 Seer 1.2.1_20201210 Wasp 4.10
2020-12-15 21:06 49 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Minic 3.01_ne_nu
2020-12-15 22:11 50 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Arasan 22.1_d5259e9
2020-12-15 23:15 51 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Fritz 17_20200830
2020-12-16 00:20 52 Arasan 22.1_d5259e9 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE
2020-12-16 01:24 53 Minic 3.01_ne_nu Seer 1.2.1_20201210
2020-12-16 02:29 54 Wasp 4.10 Winter 9.1
2020-12-16 03:33 55 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 Pedone 20201206
2020-12-16 04:38 56 Fritz 17_20200830 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19
2020-12-16 05:43 57 Pedone 20201206 Wasp 4.10
2020-12-16 06:47 58 Winter 9.1 Minic 3.01_ne_nu
2020-12-16 07:52 59 Seer 1.2.1_20201210 Arasan 22.1_d5259e9
2020-12-16 08:56 60 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-16 10:01 61 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Fritz 17_20200830
2020-12-16 11:05 62 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Seer 1.2.1_20201210
2020-12-16 12:10 63 Arasan 22.1_d5259e9 Winter 9.1
2020-12-16 13:14 64 Minic 3.01_ne_nu Pedone 20201206
2020-12-16 14:19 65 Wasp 4.10 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19
2020-12-16 15:23 66 Fritz 17_20200830 Wasp 4.10
2020-12-16 16:28 67 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 Minic 3.01_ne_nu
2020-12-16 17:32 68 Pedone 20201206 Arasan 22.1_d5259e9
2020-12-16 18:37 69 Winter 9.1 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-16 19:41 70 Seer 1.2.1_20201210 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE
2020-12-16 20:46 71 Seer 1.2.1_20201210 Fritz 17_20200830
2020-12-16 21:50 72 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Winter 9.1
2020-12-16 22:55 73 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Pedone 20201206
2020-12-16 23:59 74 Arasan 22.1_d5259e9 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19
2020-12-17 01:04 75 Minic 3.01_ne_nu Wasp 4.10
2020-12-17 02:09 76 Fritz 17_20200830 Minic 3.01_ne_nu
2020-12-17 03:13 77 Wasp 4.10 Arasan 22.1_d5259e9
2020-12-17 04:18 78 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-17 05:22 79 Pedone 20201206 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE
2020-12-17 06:27 80 Winter 9.1 Seer 1.2.1_20201210
2020-12-17 07:31 81 Winter 9.1 Fritz 17_20200830
2020-12-17 08:36 82 Seer 1.2.1_20201210 Pedone 20201206
2020-12-17 09:40 83 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19
2020-12-17 10:45 84 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Wasp 4.10
2020-12-17 11:49 85 Arasan 22.1_d5259e9 Minic 3.01_ne_nu
2020-12-17 12:54 86 Fritz 17_20200830 Arasan 22.1_d5259e9
2020-12-17 13:58 87 Minic 3.01_ne_nu Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-17 15:03 88 Wasp 4.10 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE
2020-12-17 16:07 89 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 Seer 1.2.1_20201210
2020-12-17 17:12 90 Pedone 20201206 Winter 9.1