For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. rofChade 2.308 39.331% 24.805% 64.136% 16.228% 9.437% 5.452% 3.027% 1.720% 1.347% 0.373%
2. Ethereal TCEC-S20 29.899% 25.534% 55.433% 18.969% 12.266% 7.124% 4.019% 2.189% 1.768% 0.421%
3. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 19.231% 23.210% 42.441% 21.078% 14.805% 10.178% 6.479% 5.019% 3.639% 1.380%
4. RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 5.939% 11.311% 17.250% 16.056% 19.562% 17.333% 14.180% 15.619% 10.299% 5.320%
5. Xiphos 0.6.1 2.813% 7.356% 10.169% 12.273% 17.172% 20.421% 19.346% 20.619% 14.590% 6.029%
6. SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 2.268% 5.461% 7.729% 9.200% 13.343% 16.953% 19.204% 33.571% 20.116% 13.455%
7. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 0.500% 2.165% 2.665% 5.551% 11.540% 17.972% 23.647% 38.625% 25.552% 13.073%
8. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.019% 0.158% 0.177% 0.645% 1.875% 4.567% 10.098% 82.638% 22.689% 59.949%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Ethereal TCEC-S20 rofChade 2.308 14.993%
2. rofChade 2.308 Ethereal TCEC-S20 13.737%
3. rofChade 2.308 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 13.013%
4. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Ethereal TCEC-S20 8.198%
5. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 7.448%
6. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 rofChade 2.308 6.489%
7. rofChade 2.308 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 5.786%
8. rofChade 2.308 Xiphos 0.6.1 3.080%
9. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 2.542%
10. Ethereal TCEC-S20 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 2.539%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Ethereal TCEC-S20 rofChade 2.308 28.730%
2. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 rofChade 2.308 19.502%
3. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 15.646%
4. RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c rofChade 2.308 7.374%
5. Ethereal TCEC-S20 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 4.745%
6. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.308 4.056%
7. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 3.762%
8. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Xiphos 0.6.1 3.181%
9. SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx rofChade 2.308 3.140%
10. Ethereal TCEC-S20 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 2.403%

Speculate rofChade 2.308 – Xiphos 0.6.1 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. rofChade 2.308 50.631% 25.391% 76.022% 13.853% 6.134% 2.492% 1.036% 0.463% 0.368% 0.095%
2. Ethereal TCEC-S20 25.286% 28.155% 53.441% 21.198% 12.941% 6.939% 3.589% 1.892% 1.547% 0.345%
3. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 16.531% 24.690% 41.221% 23.485% 15.057% 9.756% 6.001% 4.480% 3.252% 1.228%
4. RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 4.659% 11.203% 15.862% 17.268% 22.248% 17.454% 12.983% 14.185% 9.372% 4.813%
5. SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 1.788% 5.299% 7.087% 9.935% 14.731% 18.670% 18.828% 30.749% 18.303% 12.446%
6. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.680% 3.079% 3.759% 7.721% 14.050% 20.084% 23.499% 30.887% 20.761% 10.126%
7. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 0.408% 2.046% 2.454% 5.919% 12.784% 19.659% 23.404% 35.780% 23.703% 12.077%
8. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.017% 0.137% 0.154% 0.621% 2.055% 4.946% 10.660% 81.564% 22.694% 58.870%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. rofChade 2.308 Ethereal TCEC-S20 19.582%
2. rofChade 2.308 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 16.884%
3. Ethereal TCEC-S20 rofChade 2.308 15.084%
4. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 rofChade 2.308 7.512%
5. rofChade 2.308 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 7.358%
6. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Ethereal TCEC-S20 6.285%
7. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 6.088%
8. rofChade 2.308 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 3.383%
9. rofChade 2.308 Xiphos 0.6.1 1.961%
10. Ethereal TCEC-S20 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 1.815%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Ethereal TCEC-S20 rofChade 2.308 34.666%
2. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 rofChade 2.308 24.396%
3. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 12.373%
4. RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c rofChade 2.308 9.068%
5. SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx rofChade 2.308 4.040%
6. Ethereal TCEC-S20 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 3.401%
7. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 2.785%
8. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.308 2.232%
9. Ethereal TCEC-S20 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 1.686%
10. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE rofChade 2.308 1.535%

Speculate rofChade 2.308 – Xiphos 0.6.1 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. rofChade 2.308 33.067% 25.266% 58.333% 18.044% 11.298% 6.693% 3.506% 2.126% 1.647% 0.479%
2. Ethereal TCEC-S20 32.601% 25.060% 57.661% 17.586% 11.466% 7.057% 3.969% 2.261% 1.789% 0.472%
3. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 21.331% 22.322% 43.653% 19.665% 14.247% 10.274% 6.774% 5.387% 3.945% 1.442%
4. RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 6.705% 11.196% 17.901% 15.856% 18.732% 16.911% 14.328% 16.272% 10.675% 5.597%
5. Xiphos 0.6.1 3.050% 7.952% 11.002% 12.892% 17.729% 20.586% 18.853% 18.938% 13.591% 5.347%
6. SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 2.597% 5.632% 8.229% 9.170% 12.895% 16.163% 18.869% 34.674% 20.548% 14.126%
7. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 0.616% 2.375% 2.991% 6.031% 11.604% 17.638% 23.676% 38.060% 25.072% 12.988%
8. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.033% 0.197% 0.230% 0.756% 2.029% 4.678% 10.025% 82.282% 22.733% 59.549%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Ethereal TCEC-S20 rofChade 2.308 14.666%
2. rofChade 2.308 Ethereal TCEC-S20 11.775%
3. rofChade 2.308 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 10.176%
4. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Ethereal TCEC-S20 9.146%
5. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 8.994%
6. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 rofChade 2.308 7.095%
7. rofChade 2.308 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 4.858%
8. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Xiphos 0.6.1 3.021%
9. Ethereal TCEC-S20 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 2.983%
10. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 2.868%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Ethereal TCEC-S20 rofChade 2.308 26.441%
2. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 18.140%
3. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 rofChade 2.308 17.271%
4. RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c rofChade 2.308 6.522%
5. Ethereal TCEC-S20 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 5.531%
6. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 4.289%
7. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.308 3.874%
8. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Xiphos 0.6.1 3.822%
9. SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx rofChade 2.308 2.943%
10. Ethereal TCEC-S20 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 2.736%

Speculate rofChade 2.308 – Xiphos 0.6.1 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Ethereal TCEC-S20 35.817% 23.433% 59.250% 16.081% 10.995% 7.165% 4.112% 2.397% 1.920% 0.477%
2. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 23.054% 21.126% 44.180% 17.821% 14.587% 10.799% 7.198% 5.415% 3.971% 1.444%
3. rofChade 2.308 20.652% 20.206% 40.858% 18.558% 15.545% 12.027% 7.675% 5.337% 3.944% 1.393%
4. Xiphos 0.6.1 8.668% 15.045% 23.713% 18.360% 18.935% 16.819% 12.499% 9.674% 7.301% 2.373%
5. RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 7.792% 11.465% 19.257% 14.284% 16.335% 17.016% 15.435% 17.673% 11.596% 6.077%
6. SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 3.108% 5.778% 8.886% 8.544% 11.607% 15.275% 19.281% 36.407% 21.634% 14.773%
7. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 0.855% 2.731% 3.586% 5.592% 10.104% 16.639% 23.983% 40.096% 26.496% 13.600%
8. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.054% 0.216% 0.270% 0.760% 1.892% 4.260% 9.817% 83.001% 23.138% 59.863%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Ethereal TCEC-S20 rofChade 2.308 11.322%
2. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Ethereal TCEC-S20 10.461%
3. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 9.751%
4. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Xiphos 0.6.1 7.174%
5. rofChade 2.308 Ethereal TCEC-S20 6.537%
6. rofChade 2.308 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 6.139%
7. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 rofChade 2.308 4.670%
8. Ethereal TCEC-S20 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 3.799%
9. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 3.624%
10. RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c Ethereal TCEC-S20 2.942%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 20.212%
2. Ethereal TCEC-S20 rofChade 2.308 17.859%
3. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 rofChade 2.308 10.809%
4. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Xiphos 0.6.1 9.666%
5. Ethereal TCEC-S20 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 6.741%
6. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Xiphos 0.6.1 5.422%
7. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.308 5.250%
8. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 5.232%
9. RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c rofChade 2.308 4.169%
10. Ethereal TCEC-S20 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 3.378%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 rofChade 2.306/2.308 5.0 16.76 2.62 2.51 39 22 15 10 6 4 3
2 Ethereal TCEC-S20 5.5 16.10 2.43 2.88 26 25 18 12 8 6 3
3 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 5.0 15.61 2.41 3.22 19 23 20 14 10 7 4
4 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 4.5 14.11 2.45 4.36 8 13 16 17 15 13 11
5 Xiphos 0.6.1 4.0 13.39 2.03 4.96 2 7 12 18 21 19 14
6 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 4.0 13.01 2.53 5.21 4 8 10 14 16 17 17
7 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE/6.04_NNUE 4.0 12.35 2.08 5.82 1 3 7 11 16 21 23
8 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 3.0 10.67 1.96 7.03 0 0 1 3 7 13 24

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.65h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-12-20 05:58 37 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx rofChade 2.308
2020-12-20 07:37 38 Xiphos 0.6.1 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c
2020-12-20 09:16 39 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Ethereal TCEC-S20
2020-12-20 10:55 40 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-20 12:34 41 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx
2020-12-20 14:13 42 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE
2020-12-20 15:52 43 Ethereal TCEC-S20 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-12-20 17:31 44 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c rofChade 2.308
2020-12-20 19:10 45 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c
2020-12-20 20:49 46 rofChade 2.308 Ethereal TCEC-S20
2020-12-20 22:28 47 Xiphos 0.6.1 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-21 00:07 48 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29
2020-12-21 01:46 49 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx
2020-12-21 03:25 50 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-12-21 05:03 51 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 rofChade 2.308
2020-12-21 06:42 52 Ethereal TCEC-S20 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c
2020-12-21 08:21 53 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx Ethereal TCEC-S20
2020-12-21 10:00 54 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-21 11:39 55 rofChade 2.308 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29
2020-12-21 13:18 56 Xiphos 0.6.1 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE
2020-12-21 14:57 57 Xiphos 0.6.1 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx
2020-12-21 16:36 58 rofChade 2.308 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE
2020-12-21 18:15 59 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29
2020-12-21 19:54 60 Ethereal TCEC-S20 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-21 21:33 61 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-21 23:12 62 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Ethereal TCEC-S20
2020-12-22 00:51 63 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c
2020-12-22 02:30 64 Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.308
2020-12-22 04:09 65 rofChade 2.308 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx
2020-12-22 05:48 66 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-12-22 07:27 67 Ethereal TCEC-S20 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE
2020-12-22 09:06 68 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29
2020-12-22 10:45 69 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29
2020-12-22 12:24 70 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-22 14:03 71 Xiphos 0.6.1 Ethereal TCEC-S20
2020-12-22 15:42 72 rofChade 2.308 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c
2020-12-22 17:21 73 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx
2020-12-22 19:00 74 Ethereal TCEC-S20 rofChade 2.308
2020-12-22 20:39 75 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-12-22 22:18 76 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE
2020-12-22 23:57 77 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx Nemorino 6.04_NNUE
2020-12-23 01:36 78 Xiphos 0.6.1 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29
2020-12-23 03:15 79 rofChade 2.308 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-23 04:54 80 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c Ethereal TCEC-S20
2020-12-23 06:33 81 Ethereal TCEC-S20 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx
2020-12-23 08:12 82 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c
2020-12-23 09:51 83 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 rofChade 2.308
2020-12-23 11:30 84 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-12-23 13:09 85 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-12-23 14:48 86 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE rofChade 2.308
2020-12-23 16:27 87 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c
2020-12-23 18:05 88 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Ethereal TCEC-S20
2020-12-23 19:44 89 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx
2020-12-23 21:23 90 Ethereal TCEC-S20 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29
2020-12-23 23:02 91 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c Nemorino 6.04_NNUE
2020-12-24 00:41 92 rofChade 2.308 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-12-24 02:20 93 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx rofChade 2.308
2020-12-24 03:59 94 Xiphos 0.6.1 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c
2020-12-24 05:38 95 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Ethereal TCEC-S20
2020-12-24 07:17 96 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-24 08:56 97 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx
2020-12-24 10:35 98 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE
2020-12-24 12:14 99 Ethereal TCEC-S20 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-12-24 13:53 100 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c rofChade 2.308
2020-12-24 15:32 101 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c
2020-12-24 17:11 102 rofChade 2.308 Ethereal TCEC-S20
2020-12-24 18:50 103 Xiphos 0.6.1 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-24 20:29 104 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29
2020-12-24 22:08 105 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx
2020-12-24 23:47 106 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-12-25 01:26 107 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 rofChade 2.308
2020-12-25 03:05 108 Ethereal TCEC-S20 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c
2020-12-25 04:44 109 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx Ethereal TCEC-S20
2020-12-25 06:23 110 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-25 08:02 111 rofChade 2.308 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29
2020-12-25 09:41 112 Xiphos 0.6.1 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE