For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. rofChade 2.308 52.314% 25.317% 77.631% 13.129% 5.602% 2.283% 0.937% 0.418% 0.331% 0.087%
2. Ethereal TCEC-S20 24.979% 28.215% 53.194% 21.498% 13.050% 6.793% 3.528% 1.937% 1.587% 0.350%
3. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 15.615% 25.017% 40.632% 23.950% 15.444% 9.543% 6.032% 4.399% 3.205% 1.194%
4. RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 4.510% 10.985% 15.495% 17.289% 22.347% 17.594% 13.219% 14.056% 9.165% 4.891%
5. SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 1.579% 5.116% 6.695% 9.906% 14.679% 18.870% 18.994% 30.856% 18.469% 12.387%
6. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.614% 3.152% 3.766% 7.687% 13.726% 20.337% 23.205% 31.279% 20.922% 10.357%
7. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 0.375% 2.067% 2.442% 5.977% 13.103% 19.545% 23.426% 35.507% 23.351% 12.156%
8. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.014% 0.131% 0.145% 0.564% 2.049% 5.035% 10.659% 81.548% 22.970% 58.578%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. rofChade 2.308 Ethereal TCEC-S20 19.828%
2. rofChade 2.308 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 18.141%
3. Ethereal TCEC-S20 rofChade 2.308 15.841%
4. rofChade 2.308 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 7.451%
5. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 rofChade 2.308 6.884%
6. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Ethereal TCEC-S20 6.151%
7. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 5.319%
8. rofChade 2.308 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 3.378%
9. rofChade 2.308 Xiphos 0.6.1 2.019%
10. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 1.688%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Ethereal TCEC-S20 rofChade 2.308 35.669%
2. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 rofChade 2.308 25.025%
3. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 11.470%
4. RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c rofChade 2.308 9.096%
5. SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx rofChade 2.308 3.964%
6. Ethereal TCEC-S20 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 3.244%
7. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 2.580%
8. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.308 2.243%
9. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE rofChade 2.308 1.553%
10. Ethereal TCEC-S20 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 1.526%

Speculate SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx – rofChade 2.308 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. rofChade 2.308 34.361% 26.007% 60.368% 18.667% 10.917% 5.877% 2.820% 1.351% 1.087% 0.264%
2. Ethereal TCEC-S20 31.973% 24.812% 56.785% 17.806% 11.944% 7.217% 3.928% 2.320% 1.884% 0.436%
3. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 20.162% 22.120% 42.282% 20.219% 15.294% 10.526% 6.694% 4.985% 3.727% 1.258%
4. RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 6.442% 11.014% 17.456% 15.604% 19.206% 17.529% 14.256% 15.949% 10.547% 5.402%
5. SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 5.571% 10.619% 16.190% 14.991% 18.056% 19.120% 15.163% 16.480% 11.219% 5.261%
6. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.936% 3.209% 4.145% 6.893% 12.088% 18.359% 24.097% 34.418% 23.384% 11.034%
7. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 0.528% 2.063% 2.591% 5.240% 10.743% 17.152% 23.576% 40.698% 26.867% 13.831%
8. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.027% 0.156% 0.183% 0.580% 1.752% 4.220% 9.466% 83.799% 21.285% 62.514%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Ethereal TCEC-S20 rofChade 2.308 15.559%
2. rofChade 2.308 Ethereal TCEC-S20 11.684%
3. rofChade 2.308 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 10.766%
4. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Ethereal TCEC-S20 8.906%
5. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 7.987%
6. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 rofChade 2.308 6.506%
7. rofChade 2.308 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 4.933%
8. rofChade 2.308 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 4.675%
9. Ethereal TCEC-S20 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 3.933%
10. Ethereal TCEC-S20 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 2.774%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Ethereal TCEC-S20 rofChade 2.308 27.243%
2. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 rofChade 2.308 17.272%
3. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 16.893%
4. RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c rofChade 2.308 6.604%
5. SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx rofChade 2.308 6.534%
6. Ethereal TCEC-S20 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 5.315%
7. Ethereal TCEC-S20 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 5.213%
8. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 4.142%
9. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 2.852%
10. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.308 1.606%

Speculate SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx – rofChade 2.308 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. rofChade 2.308 48.714% 26.951% 75.665% 14.669% 6.008% 2.382% 0.872% 0.404% 0.316% 0.088%
2. Ethereal TCEC-S20 26.720% 27.420% 54.140% 21.020% 12.798% 6.688% 3.489% 1.865% 1.514% 0.351%
3. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 17.218% 24.173% 41.391% 23.027% 15.273% 9.777% 5.880% 4.652% 3.331% 1.321%
4. RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 4.879% 11.236% 16.115% 17.124% 22.194% 17.330% 12.982% 14.255% 9.393% 4.862%
5. SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 1.397% 4.997% 6.394% 10.013% 15.389% 19.706% 19.308% 29.190% 17.826% 11.364%
6. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.681% 3.109% 3.790% 7.593% 13.567% 19.879% 23.409% 31.762% 21.157% 10.605%
7. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 0.379% 1.976% 2.355% 5.946% 12.742% 19.366% 23.427% 36.164% 23.785% 12.379%
8. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.012% 0.138% 0.150% 0.608% 2.029% 4.872% 10.633% 81.708% 22.678% 59.030%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. rofChade 2.308 Ethereal TCEC-S20 18.608%
2. Ethereal TCEC-S20 rofChade 2.308 16.244%
3. rofChade 2.308 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 16.159%
4. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 rofChade 2.308 7.975%
5. rofChade 2.308 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 7.210%
6. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Ethereal TCEC-S20 6.514%
7. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 6.349%
8. rofChade 2.308 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 3.419%
9. Ethereal TCEC-S20 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 1.957%
10. rofChade 2.308 Xiphos 0.6.1 1.933%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Ethereal TCEC-S20 rofChade 2.308 34.852%
2. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 rofChade 2.308 24.134%
3. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 12.863%
4. RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c rofChade 2.308 9.017%
5. SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx rofChade 2.308 3.951%
6. Ethereal TCEC-S20 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 3.675%
7. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 2.901%
8. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.308 2.202%
9. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE rofChade 2.308 1.434%
10. Ethereal TCEC-S20 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 1.378%

Speculate SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx – rofChade 2.308 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. rofChade 2.308 65.157% 22.167% 87.324% 8.803% 2.826% 0.775% 0.211% 0.061% 0.056% 0.005%
2. Ethereal TCEC-S20 18.798% 31.541% 50.339% 24.341% 13.829% 6.746% 3.105% 1.640% 1.301% 0.339%
3. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 12.157% 27.461% 39.618% 26.887% 15.462% 8.904% 5.253% 3.876% 2.814% 1.062%
4. RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 3.068% 11.347% 14.415% 18.752% 24.607% 17.664% 12.442% 12.120% 7.816% 4.304%
5. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.375% 3.126% 3.501% 8.504% 15.591% 22.148% 22.975% 27.281% 18.265% 9.016%
6. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 0.211% 2.077% 2.288% 6.514% 14.862% 21.560% 23.698% 31.078% 20.295% 10.783%
7. SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 0.229% 2.173% 2.402% 5.498% 10.515% 16.285% 20.119% 45.181% 24.126% 21.055%
8. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.005% 0.108% 0.113% 0.701% 2.308% 5.918% 12.197% 78.763% 25.327% 53.436%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. rofChade 2.308 Ethereal TCEC-S20 26.658%
2. rofChade 2.308 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 22.945%
3. Ethereal TCEC-S20 rofChade 2.308 13.343%
4. rofChade 2.308 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 9.219%
5. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 rofChade 2.308 7.034%
6. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Ethereal TCEC-S20 3.763%
7. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 3.758%
8. rofChade 2.308 Xiphos 0.6.1 2.570%
9. rofChade 2.308 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 1.923%
10. rofChade 2.308 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE 1.757%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Ethereal TCEC-S20 rofChade 2.308 40.001%
2. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 rofChade 2.308 29.979%
3. RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c rofChade 2.308 10.666%
4. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 7.521%
5. Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.308 2.746%
6. SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx rofChade 2.308 1.998%
7. Ethereal TCEC-S20 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 1.958%
8. Nemorino 6.04_NNUE rofChade 2.308 1.846%
9. Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 1.600%
10. Ethereal TCEC-S20 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.405%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 rofChade 2.306/2.308 6.0 17.48 2.46 2.10 48 23 14 8 4 2 1
2 Ethereal TCEC-S20 5.5 16.09 2.43 2.91 23 26 19 13 8 5 3
3 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 5.0 15.59 2.41 3.25 17 23 22 15 10 7 4
4 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c 4.5 14.10 2.45 4.35 7 13 17 18 16 13 10
5 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx 4.0 12.96 2.53 5.22 3 7 11 14 16 17 17
6 Xiphos 0.6.1 4.0 12.88 1.97 5.34 1 4 9 16 21 22 18
7 Nemorino 6.03_NNUE/6.04_NNUE 4.0 12.33 2.07 5.79 1 3 7 12 17 21 23
8 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 3.0 10.57 1.94 7.05 0 0 1 3 7 13 24

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.65h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2020-12-20 07:43 38 Xiphos 0.6.1 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c
2020-12-20 09:22 39 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Ethereal TCEC-S20
2020-12-20 11:02 40 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-20 12:41 41 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx
2020-12-20 14:20 42 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE
2020-12-20 15:59 43 Ethereal TCEC-S20 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-12-20 17:38 44 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c rofChade 2.308
2020-12-20 19:17 45 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c
2020-12-20 20:56 46 rofChade 2.308 Ethereal TCEC-S20
2020-12-20 22:36 47 Xiphos 0.6.1 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-21 00:15 48 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29
2020-12-21 01:54 49 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx
2020-12-21 03:33 50 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-12-21 05:12 51 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 rofChade 2.308
2020-12-21 06:51 52 Ethereal TCEC-S20 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c
2020-12-21 08:30 53 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx Ethereal TCEC-S20
2020-12-21 10:10 54 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-21 11:49 55 rofChade 2.308 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29
2020-12-21 13:28 56 Xiphos 0.6.1 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE
2020-12-21 15:07 57 Xiphos 0.6.1 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx
2020-12-21 16:46 58 rofChade 2.308 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE
2020-12-21 18:25 59 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29
2020-12-21 20:04 60 Ethereal TCEC-S20 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-21 21:44 61 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-21 23:23 62 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Ethereal TCEC-S20
2020-12-22 01:02 63 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c
2020-12-22 02:41 64 Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.308
2020-12-22 04:20 65 rofChade 2.308 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx
2020-12-22 05:59 66 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-12-22 07:38 67 Ethereal TCEC-S20 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE
2020-12-22 09:18 68 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29
2020-12-22 10:57 69 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29
2020-12-22 12:36 70 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-22 14:15 71 Xiphos 0.6.1 Ethereal TCEC-S20
2020-12-22 15:54 72 rofChade 2.308 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c
2020-12-22 17:33 73 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx
2020-12-22 19:12 74 Ethereal TCEC-S20 rofChade 2.308
2020-12-22 20:52 75 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-12-22 22:31 76 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE
2020-12-23 00:10 77 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx Nemorino 6.04_NNUE
2020-12-23 01:49 78 Xiphos 0.6.1 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29
2020-12-23 03:28 79 rofChade 2.308 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-23 05:07 80 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c Ethereal TCEC-S20
2020-12-23 06:47 81 Ethereal TCEC-S20 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx
2020-12-23 08:26 82 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c
2020-12-23 10:05 83 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 rofChade 2.308
2020-12-23 11:44 84 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-12-23 13:23 85 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-12-23 15:02 86 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE rofChade 2.308
2020-12-23 16:41 87 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c
2020-12-23 18:21 88 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Ethereal TCEC-S20
2020-12-23 20:00 89 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx
2020-12-23 21:39 90 Ethereal TCEC-S20 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29
2020-12-23 23:18 91 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c Nemorino 6.04_NNUE
2020-12-24 00:57 92 rofChade 2.308 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-12-24 02:36 93 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx rofChade 2.308
2020-12-24 04:15 94 Xiphos 0.6.1 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c
2020-12-24 05:55 95 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Ethereal TCEC-S20
2020-12-24 07:34 96 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-24 09:13 97 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx
2020-12-24 10:52 98 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE
2020-12-24 12:31 99 Ethereal TCEC-S20 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-12-24 14:10 100 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c rofChade 2.308
2020-12-24 15:49 101 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c
2020-12-24 17:29 102 rofChade 2.308 Ethereal TCEC-S20
2020-12-24 19:08 103 Xiphos 0.6.1 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-24 20:47 104 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29
2020-12-24 22:26 105 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx
2020-12-25 00:05 106 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29 Xiphos 0.6.1
2020-12-25 01:44 107 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 rofChade 2.308
2020-12-25 03:23 108 Ethereal TCEC-S20 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c
2020-12-25 05:03 109 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx Ethereal TCEC-S20
2020-12-25 06:42 110 RubiChess 1.9_803c91ad5c Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2020-12-25 08:21 111 rofChade 2.308 Igel 2.9-dev-2_ign-0-04e9eb29
2020-12-25 10:00 112 Xiphos 0.6.1 Nemorino 6.04_NNUE