For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 20201225 81.668% 17.236% 98.904% 1.055% 0.040% 0.001%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 17.475% 71.097% 88.572% 10.451% 0.922% 0.055%
3. KomodoDragon 2647.00 0.820% 10.321% 11.141% 64.433% 20.847% 3.555% 0.024%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.037% 1.282% 1.319% 21.297% 61.919% 15.227% 0.229% 0.009% 0.009%
5. Stoofvlees II a16 0.064% 0.064% 2.762% 16.179% 77.212% 3.436% 0.347% 0.347%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.11 0.001% 0.060% 2.593% 59.176% 38.170% 36.314% 1.856%
7. Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP 0.001% 0.033% 1.356% 36.781% 61.829% 59.798% 2.031%
8. rofChade 2.309 0.001% 0.354% 99.645% 3.532% 96.113%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 20201225 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 70.895%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stockfish 20201225 16.586%
3. Stockfish 20201225 KomodoDragon 2647.00 9.519%
4. Stockfish 20201225 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 1.195%
5. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 KomodoDragon 2647.00 0.800%
6. KomodoDragon 2647.00 Stockfish 20201225 0.621%
7. KomodoDragon 2647.00 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 0.196%
8. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.084%
9. Stockfish 20201225 Stoofvlees II a16 0.059%
10. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 20201225 0.029%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stockfish 20201225 87.481%
2. KomodoDragon 2647.00 Stockfish 20201225 10.140%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 20201225 1.224%
4. KomodoDragon 2647.00 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 0.996%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 0.090%
6. Stockfish 20201225 Stoofvlees II a16 0.059%
7. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stoofvlees II a16 0.005%
8. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 KomodoDragon 2647.00 0.005%

Speculate Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP – Stoofvlees II a16 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 20201225 81.892% 17.046% 98.938% 1.027% 0.035%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 17.274% 71.320% 88.594% 10.446% 0.939% 0.021%
3. KomodoDragon 2647.00 0.792% 10.376% 11.168% 65.739% 21.034% 2.044% 0.013% 0.002% 0.002%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.042% 1.236% 1.278% 21.545% 67.509% 9.395% 0.256% 0.017% 0.017%
5. Stoofvlees II a16 0.022% 0.022% 1.239% 10.288% 80.462% 6.922% 1.067% 1.066% 0.001%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.11 0.003% 0.113% 4.164% 48.581% 47.139% 45.193% 1.946%
7. Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP 0.001% 0.082% 3.913% 43.995% 52.009% 50.935% 1.074%
8. rofChade 2.309 0.001% 0.233% 99.766% 2.787% 96.979%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 20201225 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 71.104%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stockfish 20201225 16.435%
3. Stockfish 20201225 KomodoDragon 2647.00 9.610%
4. Stockfish 20201225 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 1.156%
5. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 KomodoDragon 2647.00 0.763%
6. KomodoDragon 2647.00 Stockfish 20201225 0.587%
7. KomodoDragon 2647.00 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 0.201%
8. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.076%
9. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 20201225 0.024%
10. Stockfish 20201225 Stoofvlees II a16 0.022%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stockfish 20201225 87.539%
2. KomodoDragon 2647.00 Stockfish 20201225 10.197%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 20201225 1.180%
4. KomodoDragon 2647.00 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 0.964%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 0.091%
6. Stockfish 20201225 Stoofvlees II a16 0.022%
7. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 KomodoDragon 2647.00 0.007%

Speculate Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP – Stoofvlees II a16 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 20201225 81.884% 17.043% 98.927% 1.036% 0.037%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 17.296% 71.092% 88.388% 10.658% 0.915% 0.039%
3. KomodoDragon 2647.00 0.780% 10.526% 11.306% 64.356% 20.935% 3.393% 0.010%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.040% 1.292% 1.332% 21.508% 62.331% 14.597% 0.225% 0.007% 0.007%
5. Stoofvlees II a16 0.047% 0.047% 2.441% 15.693% 78.380% 3.154% 0.285% 0.285%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.11 0.001% 0.067% 2.531% 60.775% 36.626% 34.801% 1.825%
7. Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP 0.022% 1.060% 35.457% 63.461% 61.367% 2.094%
8. rofChade 2.309 0.379% 99.621% 3.540% 96.081%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 20201225 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 70.879%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stockfish 20201225 16.439%
3. Stockfish 20201225 KomodoDragon 2647.00 9.758%
4. Stockfish 20201225 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 1.201%
5. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 KomodoDragon 2647.00 0.765%
6. KomodoDragon 2647.00 Stockfish 20201225 0.583%
7. KomodoDragon 2647.00 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 0.197%
8. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.091%
9. Stockfish 20201225 Stoofvlees II a16 0.046%
10. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 20201225 0.021%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stockfish 20201225 87.318%
2. KomodoDragon 2647.00 Stockfish 20201225 10.341%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 20201225 1.222%
4. KomodoDragon 2647.00 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 0.962%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 0.107%
6. Stockfish 20201225 Stoofvlees II a16 0.046%
7. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 KomodoDragon 2647.00 0.003%
8. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stoofvlees II a16 0.001%

Speculate Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP – Stoofvlees II a16 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 20201225 81.782% 17.099% 98.881% 1.072% 0.047%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 17.368% 71.162% 88.530% 10.379% 1.015% 0.076%
3. KomodoDragon 2647.00 0.801% 10.299% 11.100% 63.035% 20.731% 5.111% 0.023%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.046% 1.279% 1.325% 20.664% 55.684% 22.121% 0.196% 0.010% 0.010%
5. Stoofvlees II a16 0.003% 0.161% 0.164% 4.849% 22.460% 71.128% 1.351% 0.048% 0.048%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.11 0.058% 1.370% 69.879% 28.693% 27.048% 1.645%
7. Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP 0.001% 0.005% 0.194% 28.009% 71.791% 68.066% 3.725%
8. rofChade 2.309 0.542% 99.458% 4.828% 94.630%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 20201225 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 70.946%
2. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stockfish 20201225 16.476%
3. Stockfish 20201225 KomodoDragon 2647.00 9.499%
4. Stockfish 20201225 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 1.189%
5. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 KomodoDragon 2647.00 0.794%
6. KomodoDragon 2647.00 Stockfish 20201225 0.589%
7. KomodoDragon 2647.00 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 0.207%
8. Stockfish 20201225 Stoofvlees II a16 0.148%
9. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.085%
10. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 20201225 0.032%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stockfish 20201225 87.422%
2. KomodoDragon 2647.00 Stockfish 20201225 10.088%
3. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 20201225 1.221%
4. KomodoDragon 2647.00 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 1.001%
5. Stockfish 20201225 Stoofvlees II a16 0.150%
6. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 0.093%
7. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stoofvlees II a16 0.014%
8. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 KomodoDragon 2647.00 0.011%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 Stockfish 20201225 21.0 37.79 2.53 1.33 72 23 4 1 0 0 0
2 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 19.5 35.27 2.59 2.02 24 55 17 4 1 0 0
3 KomodoDragon 2647.00 17.5 31.95 2.62 3.12 3 18 51 21 7 1 0
4 AllieStein v0.8-a0fb846_net-15.0/v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 17.0 29.42 2.51 4.01 0 4 21 48 24 3 0
5 Stoofvlees II a15.1/II a16 15.0 27.38 2.53 4.75 0 1 7 25 53 11 3
6 ScorpioNN 3.0.11 12.0 22.71 2.45 6.37 0 0 0 1 9 46 39
7 Ethereal TCEC-S20/TCEC S20 DivP (PEXT)/TCEC S20 DivP 11.0 22.20 2.39 6.53 0 0 0 1 7 37 48
8 rofChade 2.306/2.308/2.309 8.0 17.27 2.33 7.86 0 0 0 0 0 2 10

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.10h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2021-01-06 08:44 123 KomodoDragon 2647.00 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740
2021-01-06 10:50 124 rofChade 2.309 Stockfish 20201225
2021-01-06 12:56 125 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 20201225
2021-01-06 15:03 126 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 rofChade 2.309
2021-01-06 17:09 127 Stoofvlees II a16 KomodoDragon 2647.00
2021-01-06 19:15 128 ScorpioNN 3.0.11 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP
2021-01-06 21:21 129 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2021-01-06 23:28 130 KomodoDragon 2647.00 ScorpioNN 3.0.11
2021-01-07 01:34 131 rofChade 2.309 Stoofvlees II a16
2021-01-07 03:40 132 Stockfish 20201225 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740
2021-01-07 05:46 133 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740
2021-01-07 07:53 134 Stoofvlees II a16 Stockfish 20201225
2021-01-07 09:59 135 ScorpioNN 3.0.11 rofChade 2.309
2021-01-07 12:05 136 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP KomodoDragon 2647.00
2021-01-07 14:11 137 KomodoDragon 2647.00 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2021-01-07 16:18 138 rofChade 2.309 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP
2021-01-07 18:24 139 Stockfish 20201225 ScorpioNN 3.0.11
2021-01-07 20:30 140 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stoofvlees II a16
2021-01-07 22:36 141 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stoofvlees II a16
2021-01-08 00:43 142 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 ScorpioNN 3.0.11
2021-01-08 02:49 143 Stockfish 20201225 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP
2021-01-08 04:55 144 rofChade 2.309 KomodoDragon 2647.00
2021-01-08 07:01 145 rofChade 2.309 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2021-01-08 09:08 146 KomodoDragon 2647.00 Stockfish 20201225
2021-01-08 11:14 147 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740
2021-01-08 13:20 148 ScorpioNN 3.0.11 Stoofvlees II a16
2021-01-08 15:26 149 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 ScorpioNN 3.0.11
2021-01-08 17:33 150 Stoofvlees II a16 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP
2021-01-08 19:39 151 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 KomodoDragon 2647.00
2021-01-08 21:45 152 Stockfish 20201225 rofChade 2.309
2021-01-08 23:51 153 Stockfish 20201225 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2021-01-09 01:58 154 rofChade 2.309 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740
2021-01-09 04:04 155 KomodoDragon 2647.00 Stoofvlees II a16
2021-01-09 06:10 156 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP ScorpioNN 3.0.11
2021-01-09 08:16 157 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP
2021-01-09 10:23 158 ScorpioNN 3.0.11 KomodoDragon 2647.00
2021-01-09 12:29 159 Stoofvlees II a16 rofChade 2.309
2021-01-09 14:35 160 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stockfish 20201225
2021-01-09 16:41 161 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2021-01-09 18:48 162 Stockfish 20201225 Stoofvlees II a16
2021-01-09 20:54 163 rofChade 2.309 ScorpioNN 3.0.11
2021-01-09 23:00 164 KomodoDragon 2647.00 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP
2021-01-10 01:06 165 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 KomodoDragon 2647.00
2021-01-10 03:13 166 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP rofChade 2.309
2021-01-10 05:19 167 ScorpioNN 3.0.11 Stockfish 20201225
2021-01-10 07:25 168 Stoofvlees II a16 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740
2021-01-10 09:31 169 Stoofvlees II a16 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2021-01-10 11:38 170 ScorpioNN 3.0.11 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740
2021-01-10 13:44 171 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP Stockfish 20201225
2021-01-10 15:50 172 KomodoDragon 2647.00 rofChade 2.309
2021-01-10 17:56 173 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 rofChade 2.309
2021-01-10 20:03 174 Stockfish 20201225 KomodoDragon 2647.00
2021-01-10 22:09 175 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP
2021-01-11 00:15 176 Stoofvlees II a16 ScorpioNN 3.0.11
2021-01-11 02:21 177 ScorpioNN 3.0.11 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2021-01-11 04:28 178 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP Stoofvlees II a16
2021-01-11 06:34 179 KomodoDragon 2647.00 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740
2021-01-11 08:40 180 rofChade 2.309 Stockfish 20201225
2021-01-11 10:46 181 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stockfish 20201225
2021-01-11 12:52 182 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 rofChade 2.309
2021-01-11 14:59 183 Stoofvlees II a16 KomodoDragon 2647.00
2021-01-11 17:05 184 ScorpioNN 3.0.11 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP
2021-01-11 19:11 185 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2021-01-11 21:17 186 KomodoDragon 2647.00 ScorpioNN 3.0.11
2021-01-11 23:24 187 rofChade 2.309 Stoofvlees II a16
2021-01-12 01:30 188 Stockfish 20201225 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740
2021-01-12 03:36 189 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740
2021-01-12 05:42 190 Stoofvlees II a16 Stockfish 20201225
2021-01-12 07:49 191 ScorpioNN 3.0.11 rofChade 2.309
2021-01-12 09:55 192 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP KomodoDragon 2647.00
2021-01-12 12:01 193 KomodoDragon 2647.00 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2021-01-12 14:07 194 rofChade 2.309 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP
2021-01-12 16:14 195 Stockfish 20201225 ScorpioNN 3.0.11
2021-01-12 18:20 196 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stoofvlees II a16
2021-01-12 20:26 197 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Stoofvlees II a16
2021-01-12 22:32 198 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 ScorpioNN 3.0.11
2021-01-13 00:39 199 Stockfish 20201225 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP
2021-01-13 02:45 200 rofChade 2.309 KomodoDragon 2647.00
2021-01-13 04:51 201 rofChade 2.309 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2021-01-13 06:57 202 KomodoDragon 2647.00 Stockfish 20201225
2021-01-13 09:04 203 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740
2021-01-13 11:10 204 ScorpioNN 3.0.11 Stoofvlees II a16
2021-01-13 13:16 205 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 ScorpioNN 3.0.11
2021-01-13 15:22 206 Stoofvlees II a16 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP
2021-01-13 17:29 207 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 KomodoDragon 2647.00
2021-01-13 19:35 208 Stockfish 20201225 rofChade 2.309
2021-01-13 21:41 209 Stockfish 20201225 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2021-01-13 23:47 210 rofChade 2.309 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740
2021-01-14 01:54 211 KomodoDragon 2647.00 Stoofvlees II a16
2021-01-14 04:00 212 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP ScorpioNN 3.0.11
2021-01-14 06:06 213 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP
2021-01-14 08:12 214 ScorpioNN 3.0.11 KomodoDragon 2647.00
2021-01-14 10:19 215 Stoofvlees II a16 rofChade 2.309
2021-01-14 12:25 216 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stockfish 20201225
2021-01-14 14:31 217 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2021-01-14 16:37 218 Stockfish 20201225 Stoofvlees II a16
2021-01-14 18:44 219 rofChade 2.309 ScorpioNN 3.0.11
2021-01-14 20:50 220 KomodoDragon 2647.00 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP
2021-01-14 22:56 221 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 KomodoDragon 2647.00
2021-01-15 01:02 222 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP rofChade 2.309
2021-01-15 03:09 223 ScorpioNN 3.0.11 Stockfish 20201225
2021-01-15 05:15 224 Stoofvlees II a16 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740