For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 86.924% 13.076% 100.000%
2. Stockfish 20201225 13.076% 86.924% 100.000%
3. KomodoDragon 2647.00 97.517% 2.483%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 2.483% 97.517%
5. Stoofvlees II a16 100.000%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.11 95.570% 4.430% 4.430%
7. Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP 4.430% 95.570% 95.475% 0.095%
8. rofChade 2.309 100.000% 0.095% 99.905%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stockfish 20201225 86.924%
2. Stockfish 20201225 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 13.076%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stockfish 20201225 100.000%

Speculate KomodoDragon 2647.00 – Stoofvlees II a16 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 86.570% 13.430% 100.000%
2. Stockfish 20201225 13.430% 86.570% 100.000%
3. KomodoDragon 2647.00 99.672% 0.328%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 0.328% 99.672%
5. Stoofvlees II a16 100.000%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.11 95.640% 4.360% 4.360%
7. Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP 4.360% 95.640% 95.539% 0.101%
8. rofChade 2.309 100.000% 0.101% 99.899%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stockfish 20201225 86.570%
2. Stockfish 20201225 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 13.430%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stockfish 20201225 100.000%

Speculate KomodoDragon 2647.00 – Stoofvlees II a16 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 86.847% 13.153% 100.000%
2. Stockfish 20201225 13.153% 86.847% 100.000%
3. KomodoDragon 2647.00 97.441% 2.559%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 2.559% 97.441%
5. Stoofvlees II a16 100.000%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.11 95.532% 4.468% 4.468%
7. Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP 4.468% 95.532% 95.426% 0.106%
8. rofChade 2.309 100.000% 0.106% 99.894%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stockfish 20201225 86.847%
2. Stockfish 20201225 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 13.153%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stockfish 20201225 100.000%

Speculate KomodoDragon 2647.00 – Stoofvlees II a16 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 86.747% 13.253% 100.000%
2. Stockfish 20201225 13.253% 86.747% 100.000%
3. KomodoDragon 2647.00 92.097% 7.903%
4. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 7.903% 92.097%
5. Stoofvlees II a16 100.000%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.11 95.493% 4.507% 4.507%
7. Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP 4.507% 95.493% 95.395% 0.098%
8. rofChade 2.309 100.000% 0.098% 99.902%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stockfish 20201225 86.747%
2. Stockfish 20201225 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 13.253%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stockfish 20201225 100.000%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 36.5 38.31 0.73 1.32 68 32 0 0 0 0 0
2 Stockfish 20201225 36.0 37.78 0.72 1.68 32 68 0 0 0 0 0
3 KomodoDragon 2647.00 30.0 32.37 0.85 3.05 0 0 95 5 0 0 0
4 AllieStein v0.8-a0fb846_net-15.0/v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 29.0 30.50 0.73 3.95 0 0 5 95 0 0 0
5 Stoofvlees II a15.1/II a16 25.0 26.74 0.83 5.00 0 0 0 0 100 0 0
6 ScorpioNN 3.0.11 19.5 21.23 0.85 6.12 0 0 0 0 0 88 12
7 Ethereal TCEC-S20/TCEC S20 DivP (PEXT)/TCEC S20 DivP 18.0 19.80 0.84 6.89 0 0 0 0 0 12 87
8 rofChade 2.306/2.308/2.309 16.0 17.26 0.73 7.99 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.07h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2021-01-13 21:13 212 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP ScorpioNN 3.0.11
2021-01-13 23:17 213 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP
2021-01-14 01:21 214 ScorpioNN 3.0.11 KomodoDragon 2647.00
2021-01-14 03:26 215 Stoofvlees II a16 rofChade 2.309
2021-01-14 05:30 216 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 Stockfish 20201225
2021-01-14 07:34 217 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0
2021-01-14 09:39 218 Stockfish 20201225 Stoofvlees II a16
2021-01-14 11:43 219 rofChade 2.309 ScorpioNN 3.0.11
2021-01-14 13:47 220 KomodoDragon 2647.00 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP
2021-01-14 15:52 221 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_net-15.0 KomodoDragon 2647.00
2021-01-14 17:56 222 Ethereal TCEC S20 DivP rofChade 2.309
2021-01-14 20:00 223 ScorpioNN 3.0.11 Stockfish 20201225
2021-01-14 22:04 224 Stoofvlees II a16 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740