For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2. Columns 1.-2. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations except as biased random().
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 20210113 56.323% 43.677%
2. LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 43.677% 56.323%

Speculate LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 – Stockfish 20210113 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2.
1. LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 58.377% 41.623%
2. Stockfish 20210113 41.623% 58.377%

Speculate LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 – Stockfish 20210113 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 20210113 57.482% 42.518%
2. LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 42.518% 57.482%

Speculate LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 – Stockfish 20210113 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 20210113 71.535% 28.465%
2. LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 28.465% 71.535%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1
1 Stockfish 20201225/20210113 33.5 50.02 2.78 1.50 50
2 LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740/0.27.0d+Tilps/dje-magic_JH.94-100/0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 33.5 49.98 2.78 1.50 50

Expected start time based on estimate of 3.68h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2021-01-27 03:47 69 Stockfish 20210113 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100
2021-01-27 07:28 70 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 Stockfish 20210113
2021-01-27 11:10 71 Stockfish 20210113 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100
2021-01-27 14:51 72 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 Stockfish 20210113
2021-01-27 18:32 73 Stockfish 20210113 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100
2021-01-27 22:13 74 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 Stockfish 20210113
2021-01-28 01:54 75 Stockfish 20210113 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100
2021-01-28 05:35 76 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 Stockfish 20210113
2021-01-28 09:16 77 Stockfish 20210113 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100
2021-01-28 12:57 78 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 Stockfish 20210113
2021-01-28 16:38 79 Stockfish 20210113 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100
2021-01-28 20:19 80 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 Stockfish 20210113
2021-01-29 00:01 81 Stockfish 20210113 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100
2021-01-29 03:42 82 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 Stockfish 20210113
2021-01-29 07:23 83 Stockfish 20210113 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100
2021-01-29 11:04 84 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 Stockfish 20210113
2021-01-29 14:45 85 Stockfish 20210113 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100
2021-01-29 18:26 86 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 Stockfish 20210113
2021-01-29 22:07 87 Stockfish 20210113 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100
2021-01-30 01:48 88 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 Stockfish 20210113
2021-01-30 05:29 89 Stockfish 20210113 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100
2021-01-30 09:10 90 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 Stockfish 20210113
2021-01-30 12:51 91 Stockfish 20210113 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100
2021-01-30 16:33 92 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 Stockfish 20210113
2021-01-30 20:14 93 Stockfish 20210113 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100
2021-01-30 23:55 94 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 Stockfish 20210113
2021-01-31 03:36 95 Stockfish 20210113 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100
2021-01-31 07:17 96 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 Stockfish 20210113
2021-01-31 10:58 97 Stockfish 20210113 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100
2021-01-31 14:39 98 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 Stockfish 20210113
2021-01-31 18:20 99 Stockfish 20210113 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100
2021-01-31 22:01 100 LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 Stockfish 20210113