For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2. Columns 1.-2. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations except as biased random().
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Stockfish 20210113 | 94.392% | 5.608% | |
| 2. | LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 | 5.608% | 94.392% |
Speculate Stockfish 20210113 – LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 1-0
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Stockfish 20210113 | 98.337% | 1.663% | |
| 2. | LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 | 1.663% | 98.337% |
Speculate Stockfish 20210113 – LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 1/2-1/2
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Stockfish 20210113 | 94.551% | 5.449% | |
| 2. | LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 | 5.449% | 94.551% |
Speculate Stockfish 20210113 – LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 0-1
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used
| Pos | Name | 1. | 2. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Stockfish 20210113 | 85.764% | 14.236% | |
| 2. | LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 | 14.236% | 85.764% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
| Rank | Player name | Points | EPoints | StdDev | ERank | 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockfish 20201225/20210113 | 43.5 | 51.68 | 1.80 | 1.15 | 85 |
| 2 | LCZero v0.26.3_T60.66740/0.27.0d+Tilps/dje-magic_JH.94-100/0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 | 40.5 | 48.32 | 1.80 | 1.85 | 15 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 3.73h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
| UTC | No | White | Black |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-01-29 22:11 | 86 | LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 | Stockfish 20210113 |
| 2021-01-30 01:55 | 87 | Stockfish 20210113 | LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 |
| 2021-01-30 05:39 | 88 | LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 | Stockfish 20210113 |
| 2021-01-30 09:23 | 89 | Stockfish 20210113 | LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 |
| 2021-01-30 13:06 | 90 | LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 | Stockfish 20210113 |
| 2021-01-30 16:50 | 91 | Stockfish 20210113 | LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 |
| 2021-01-30 20:34 | 92 | LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 | Stockfish 20210113 |
| 2021-01-31 00:18 | 93 | Stockfish 20210113 | LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 |
| 2021-01-31 04:01 | 94 | LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 | Stockfish 20210113 |
| 2021-01-31 07:45 | 95 | Stockfish 20210113 | LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 |
| 2021-01-31 11:29 | 96 | LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 | Stockfish 20210113 |
| 2021-01-31 15:13 | 97 | Stockfish 20210113 | LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 |
| 2021-01-31 18:56 | 98 | LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 | Stockfish 20210113 |
| 2021-01-31 22:40 | 99 | Stockfish 20210113 | LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 |
| 2021-02-01 02:24 | 100 | LCZero 0.27.0d-Tilps-dje-magic_JH.94-100 | Stockfish 20210113 |