For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. StockfishClassical 202007311012 65.133% 26.945% 92.078% 6.535% 1.244% 0.126% 0.016% 0.001% 0.001%
2. Komodo 14.1 26.497% 38.063% 64.560% 21.664% 10.693% 2.222% 0.620% 0.241% 0.192% 0.049%
3. SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx 4.282% 19.188% 23.470% 39.137% 27.498% 6.813% 2.176% 0.906% 0.707% 0.199%
4. EtherealClassical 12.89 4.019% 14.745% 18.764% 26.843% 36.837% 11.153% 4.076% 2.327% 1.731% 0.596%
5. rofChade 2.309 0.007% 0.210% 0.217% 1.407% 6.637% 23.571% 26.812% 41.356% 23.903% 17.453%
6. RubiChessClassical 2.0.1 0.046% 0.474% 0.520% 2.155% 7.800% 21.342% 21.514% 46.669% 23.038% 23.631%
7. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.008% 0.119% 0.127% 0.896% 4.603% 18.979% 24.580% 50.815% 26.613% 24.202%
8. LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30 0.008% 0.256% 0.264% 1.363% 4.688% 15.794% 20.206% 57.685% 23.815% 33.870%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Komodo 14.1 35.455%
2. Komodo 14.1 StockfishClassical 202007311012 21.909%
3. StockfishClassical 202007311012 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx 16.094%
4. StockfishClassical 202007311012 EtherealClassical 12.89 12.690%
5. Komodo 14.1 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx 2.803%
6. EtherealClassical 12.89 StockfishClassical 202007311012 2.529%
7. SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx StockfishClassical 202007311012 2.468%
8. Komodo 14.1 EtherealClassical 12.89 1.670%
9. SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx Komodo 14.1 1.398%
10. EtherealClassical 12.89 Komodo 14.1 1.193%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Komodo 14.1 StockfishClassical 202007311012 57.364%
2. SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx StockfishClassical 202007311012 18.562%
3. EtherealClassical 12.89 StockfishClassical 202007311012 15.219%
4. Komodo 14.1 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx 4.201%
5. EtherealClassical 12.89 Komodo 14.1 2.863%
6. EtherealClassical 12.89 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx 0.664%
7. RubiChessClassical 2.0.1 StockfishClassical 202007311012 0.413%
8. LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30 StockfishClassical 202007311012 0.241%
9. StockfishClassical 202007311012 rofChade 2.309 0.189%
10. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.090%

Speculate StockfishClassical 202007311012 – Xiphos 0.6.1 1-0

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. StockfishClassical 202007311012 74.429% 21.405% 95.834% 3.646% 0.496% 0.022% 0.002%
2. Komodo 14.1 20.131% 42.765% 62.896% 23.094% 11.025% 2.206% 0.574% 0.205% 0.175% 0.030%
3. SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx 2.762% 19.215% 21.977% 40.223% 28.460% 6.578% 1.997% 0.765% 0.631% 0.134%
4. EtherealClassical 12.89 2.621% 15.615% 18.236% 27.620% 37.647% 10.736% 3.815% 1.946% 1.493% 0.453%
5. RubiChessClassical 2.0.1 0.036% 0.486% 0.522% 2.192% 8.201% 24.150% 21.713% 43.222% 21.209% 22.013%
6. rofChade 2.309 0.007% 0.208% 0.215% 1.520% 6.868% 26.102% 28.262% 37.033% 22.653% 14.380%
7. LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30 0.013% 0.282% 0.295% 1.361% 4.898% 17.143% 21.800% 54.503% 24.947% 29.556%
8. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.001% 0.024% 0.025% 0.344% 2.405% 13.063% 21.837% 62.326% 28.892% 33.434%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Komodo 14.1 41.309%
2. Komodo 14.1 StockfishClassical 202007311012 17.756%
3. StockfishClassical 202007311012 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx 17.704%
4. StockfishClassical 202007311012 EtherealClassical 12.89 14.481%
5. EtherealClassical 12.89 StockfishClassical 202007311012 1.810%
6. SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx StockfishClassical 202007311012 1.798%
7. Komodo 14.1 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx 1.377%
8. Komodo 14.1 EtherealClassical 12.89 0.947%
9. SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx Komodo 14.1 0.771%
10. EtherealClassical 12.89 Komodo 14.1 0.677%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Komodo 14.1 StockfishClassical 202007311012 59.065%
2. SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx StockfishClassical 202007311012 19.502%
3. EtherealClassical 12.89 StockfishClassical 202007311012 16.291%
4. Komodo 14.1 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx 2.148%
5. EtherealClassical 12.89 Komodo 14.1 1.624%
6. RubiChessClassical 2.0.1 StockfishClassical 202007311012 0.478%
7. EtherealClassical 12.89 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx 0.313%
8. LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30 StockfishClassical 202007311012 0.275%
9. StockfishClassical 202007311012 rofChade 2.309 0.201%
10. Komodo 14.1 RubiChessClassical 2.0.1 0.034%

Speculate StockfishClassical 202007311012 – Xiphos 0.6.1 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. StockfishClassical 202007311012 63.239% 28.361% 91.600% 6.972% 1.305% 0.107% 0.015% 0.001% 0.001%
2. Komodo 14.1 27.846% 36.986% 64.832% 21.670% 10.480% 2.218% 0.568% 0.232% 0.175% 0.057%
3. SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx 4.595% 18.911% 23.506% 38.810% 27.359% 7.087% 2.327% 0.911% 0.718% 0.193%
4. EtherealClassical 12.89 4.214% 14.744% 18.958% 26.811% 36.635% 10.950% 4.254% 2.392% 1.765% 0.627%
5. RubiChessClassical 2.0.1 0.069% 0.462% 0.531% 2.099% 7.749% 21.086% 21.017% 47.518% 23.278% 24.240%
6. rofChade 2.309 0.011% 0.214% 0.225% 1.454% 6.587% 23.167% 26.820% 41.747% 23.861% 17.886%
7. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.004% 0.101% 0.105% 0.892% 5.038% 20.233% 25.470% 48.262% 26.187% 22.075%
8. LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30 0.022% 0.221% 0.243% 1.292% 4.847% 15.152% 19.529% 58.937% 24.015% 34.922%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Komodo 14.1 34.115%
2. Komodo 14.1 StockfishClassical 202007311012 23.051%
3. StockfishClassical 202007311012 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx 15.699%
4. StockfishClassical 202007311012 EtherealClassical 12.89 12.592%
5. Komodo 14.1 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx 2.881%
6. SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx StockfishClassical 202007311012 2.665%
7. EtherealClassical 12.89 StockfishClassical 202007311012 2.574%
8. Komodo 14.1 EtherealClassical 12.89 1.790%
9. SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx Komodo 14.1 1.548%
10. EtherealClassical 12.89 Komodo 14.1 1.300%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Komodo 14.1 StockfishClassical 202007311012 57.166%
2. SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx StockfishClassical 202007311012 18.364%
3. EtherealClassical 12.89 StockfishClassical 202007311012 15.166%
4. Komodo 14.1 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx 4.429%
5. EtherealClassical 12.89 Komodo 14.1 3.090%
6. EtherealClassical 12.89 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx 0.682%
7. RubiChessClassical 2.0.1 StockfishClassical 202007311012 0.424%
8. LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30 StockfishClassical 202007311012 0.198%
9. StockfishClassical 202007311012 rofChade 2.309 0.196%
10. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.086%

Speculate StockfishClassical 202007311012 – Xiphos 0.6.1 0-1

eloAdvantage = 44.955 and eloDraw = 366.384 by Exa used

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. StockfishClassical 202007311012 50.911% 33.508% 84.419% 11.897% 3.129% 0.468% 0.072% 0.015% 0.015%
2. Komodo 14.1 35.483% 31.322% 66.805% 19.671% 10.087% 2.400% 0.716% 0.321% 0.249% 0.072%
3. SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx 7.156% 19.263% 26.419% 36.105% 25.686% 7.883% 2.779% 1.128% 0.894% 0.234%
4. EtherealClassical 12.89 6.223% 14.426% 20.649% 25.348% 34.311% 11.777% 4.906% 3.009% 2.185% 0.824%
5. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.050% 0.418% 0.468% 2.213% 9.314% 27.700% 26.015% 34.290% 20.991% 13.299%
6. rofChade 2.309 0.017% 0.250% 0.267% 1.439% 6.081% 19.546% 25.390% 47.277% 26.363% 20.914%
7. RubiChessClassical 2.0.1 0.117% 0.531% 0.648% 1.989% 7.104% 17.282% 22.260% 50.717% 25.082% 25.635%
8. LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30 0.043% 0.282% 0.325% 1.338% 4.288% 12.944% 17.862% 63.243% 24.221% 39.022%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Komodo 14.1 StockfishClassical 202007311012 26.429%
2. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Komodo 14.1 26.355%
3. StockfishClassical 202007311012 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx 13.340%
4. StockfishClassical 202007311012 EtherealClassical 12.89 10.287%
5. Komodo 14.1 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx 5.317%
6. SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx StockfishClassical 202007311012 3.570%
7. EtherealClassical 12.89 StockfishClassical 202007311012 3.383%
8. Komodo 14.1 EtherealClassical 12.89 3.343%
9. SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx Komodo 14.1 2.719%
10. EtherealClassical 12.89 Komodo 14.1 2.186%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Komodo 14.1 StockfishClassical 202007311012 52.784%
2. SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx StockfishClassical 202007311012 16.910%
3. EtherealClassical 12.89 StockfishClassical 202007311012 13.670%
4. Komodo 14.1 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx 8.036%
5. EtherealClassical 12.89 Komodo 14.1 5.529%
6. EtherealClassical 12.89 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx 1.364%
7. RubiChessClassical 2.0.1 StockfishClassical 202007311012 0.405%
8. StockfishClassical 202007311012 Xiphos 0.6.1 0.240%
9. LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30 StockfishClassical 202007311012 0.224%
10. StockfishClassical 202007311012 rofChade 2.309 0.186%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 StockfishClassical 202007311012 7.5 18.17 1.85 1.72 52 31 12 4 1 0 0
2 Komodo 14.1 6.5 17.11 2.40 2.39 32 30 19 10 5 2 1
3 EtherealClassical 12.89 5.5 15.13 2.39 3.64 9 18 24 22 13 8 4
4 SlowChess Blitz 2.41 avx/Blitz 2.5 avx 6.0 15.11 2.03 3.61 6 16 28 25 13 7 3
5 rofChade 2.306/2.308/2.309 3.5 12.18 1.94 5.80 0 1 5 13 22 24 21
6 Xiphos 0.6.1 3.5 11.78 1.90 6.12 0 1 3 9 19 24 24
7 RubiChessClassical 2.0.1 4.0 11.34 2.40 6.31 1 2 4 9 14 17 23
8 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30 3.5 11.19 2.37 6.41 0 1 4 8 13 17 23

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.14h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2021-02-10 21:07 42 EtherealClassical 12.89 RubiChessClassical 2.0.1
2021-02-10 22:15 43 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30 Komodo 14.1
2021-02-10 23:24 44 rofChade 2.309 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx
2021-02-11 00:32 45 Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.309
2021-02-11 01:40 46 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30
2021-02-11 02:48 47 Komodo 14.1 EtherealClassical 12.89
2021-02-11 03:56 48 RubiChessClassical 2.0.1 StockfishClassical 202007311012
2021-02-11 05:04 49 RubiChessClassical 2.0.1 Xiphos 0.6.1
2021-02-11 06:12 50 StockfishClassical 202007311012 Komodo 14.1
2021-02-11 07:21 51 EtherealClassical 12.89 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx
2021-02-11 08:29 52 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30 rofChade 2.309
2021-02-11 09:37 53 Xiphos 0.6.1 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30
2021-02-11 10:45 54 rofChade 2.309 EtherealClassical 12.89
2021-02-11 11:53 55 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx StockfishClassical 202007311012
2021-02-11 13:01 56 Komodo 14.1 RubiChessClassical 2.0.1
2021-02-11 14:10 57 Komodo 14.1 Xiphos 0.6.1
2021-02-11 15:18 58 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx RubiChessClassical 2.0.1
2021-02-11 16:26 59 rofChade 2.309 StockfishClassical 202007311012
2021-02-11 17:34 60 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30 EtherealClassical 12.89
2021-02-11 18:42 61 Xiphos 0.6.1 EtherealClassical 12.89
2021-02-11 19:50 62 StockfishClassical 202007311012 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30
2021-02-11 20:59 63 RubiChessClassical 2.0.1 rofChade 2.309
2021-02-11 22:07 64 Komodo 14.1 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx
2021-02-11 23:15 65 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx Xiphos 0.6.1
2021-02-12 00:23 66 rofChade 2.309 Komodo 14.1
2021-02-12 01:31 67 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30 RubiChessClassical 2.0.1
2021-02-12 02:39 68 EtherealClassical 12.89 StockfishClassical 202007311012
2021-02-12 03:48 69 Xiphos 0.6.1 StockfishClassical 202007311012
2021-02-12 04:56 70 RubiChessClassical 2.0.1 EtherealClassical 12.89
2021-02-12 06:04 71 Komodo 14.1 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30
2021-02-12 07:12 72 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx rofChade 2.309
2021-02-12 08:20 73 rofChade 2.309 Xiphos 0.6.1
2021-02-12 09:28 74 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx
2021-02-12 10:36 75 EtherealClassical 12.89 Komodo 14.1
2021-02-12 11:45 76 StockfishClassical 202007311012 RubiChessClassical 2.0.1
2021-02-12 12:53 77 Xiphos 0.6.1 RubiChessClassical 2.0.1
2021-02-12 14:01 78 Komodo 14.1 StockfishClassical 202007311012
2021-02-12 15:09 79 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx EtherealClassical 12.89
2021-02-12 16:17 80 rofChade 2.309 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30
2021-02-12 17:25 81 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30 Xiphos 0.6.1
2021-02-12 18:34 82 EtherealClassical 12.89 rofChade 2.309
2021-02-12 19:42 83 StockfishClassical 202007311012 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx
2021-02-12 20:50 84 RubiChessClassical 2.0.1 Komodo 14.1
2021-02-12 21:58 85 Xiphos 0.6.1 Komodo 14.1
2021-02-12 23:06 86 RubiChessClassical 2.0.1 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx
2021-02-13 00:14 87 StockfishClassical 202007311012 rofChade 2.309
2021-02-13 01:23 88 EtherealClassical 12.89 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30
2021-02-13 02:31 89 EtherealClassical 12.89 Xiphos 0.6.1
2021-02-13 03:39 90 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30 StockfishClassical 202007311012
2021-02-13 04:47 91 rofChade 2.309 RubiChessClassical 2.0.1
2021-02-13 05:55 92 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx Komodo 14.1
2021-02-13 07:03 93 Xiphos 0.6.1 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx
2021-02-13 08:11 94 Komodo 14.1 rofChade 2.309
2021-02-13 09:20 95 RubiChessClassical 2.0.1 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30
2021-02-13 10:28 96 StockfishClassical 202007311012 EtherealClassical 12.89
2021-02-13 11:36 97 StockfishClassical 202007311012 Xiphos 0.6.1
2021-02-13 12:44 98 EtherealClassical 12.89 RubiChessClassical 2.0.1
2021-02-13 13:52 99 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30 Komodo 14.1
2021-02-13 15:00 100 rofChade 2.309 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx
2021-02-13 16:09 101 Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.309
2021-02-13 17:17 102 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30
2021-02-13 18:25 103 Komodo 14.1 EtherealClassical 12.89
2021-02-13 19:33 104 RubiChessClassical 2.0.1 StockfishClassical 202007311012
2021-02-13 20:41 105 RubiChessClassical 2.0.1 Xiphos 0.6.1
2021-02-13 21:49 106 StockfishClassical 202007311012 Komodo 14.1
2021-02-13 22:58 107 EtherealClassical 12.89 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx
2021-02-14 00:06 108 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30 rofChade 2.309
2021-02-14 01:14 109 Xiphos 0.6.1 LCZeroCPU v0.26.2_T70.JH.104.1-30
2021-02-14 02:22 110 rofChade 2.309 EtherealClassical 12.89
2021-02-14 03:30 111 SlowChess Blitz 2.5 avx StockfishClassical 202007311012
2021-02-14 04:38 112 Komodo 14.1 RubiChessClassical 2.0.1