For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = -47.952 and eloDraw = 245.005 based on Season 20 League 3 games
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
|
9-12. |
|
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
1. |
Pedone 20210528 |
|
95.525% |
4.344% |
|
99.869% |
|
0.131% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
|
4.443% |
47.801% |
|
52.244% |
|
26.432% |
12.148% |
7.265% |
1.820% |
0.091% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 3.07 |
|
|
21.601% |
|
21.601% |
|
27.900% |
22.357% |
13.924% |
13.905% |
0.305% |
0.008% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Booot 6.5 |
|
0.032% |
11.549% |
|
11.581% |
|
24.638% |
32.004% |
21.733% |
9.809% |
0.230% |
0.005% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Fritz 17_20200830 |
|
|
11.809% |
|
11.809% |
|
15.445% |
23.325% |
39.641% |
8.038% |
1.231% |
0.486% |
|
0.025% |
|
0.025% |
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
|
|
2.896% |
|
2.896% |
|
5.454% |
10.138% |
16.557% |
59.101% |
4.977% |
0.735% |
|
0.142% |
|
0.142% |
|
|
|
7. |
Halogen 10.12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.028% |
0.669% |
5.114% |
62.079% |
27.100% |
|
5.010% |
|
5.004% |
0.006% |
|
|
8. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.001% |
0.475% |
26.455% |
46.060% |
|
27.009% |
|
23.368% |
3.641% |
|
|
9. |
Winter 9.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.210% |
1.738% |
4.619% |
24.837% |
|
68.596% |
|
67.817% |
0.779% |
|
|
10. |
ClassicAra 0.9.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.013% |
0.769% |
|
99.218% |
|
3.644% |
93.905% |
1.669% |
|
11. |
Seer 20210531 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
1.669% |
96.930% |
1.401% |
12. |
Arasan 22.3.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
1.401% |
98.599% |
Top promotions
Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
1. |
Pedone 20210528 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
47.801% |
2. |
Pedone 20210528 |
Minic 3.07 |
21.601% |
3. |
Pedone 20210528 |
Fritz 17_20200830 |
11.809% |
4. |
Pedone 20210528 |
Booot 6.5 |
11.418% |
5. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
Pedone 20210528 |
4.312% |
6. |
Pedone 20210528 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
2.896% |
7. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
Booot 6.5 |
0.131% |
8. |
Booot 6.5 |
Pedone 20210528 |
0.032% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
1. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
Pedone 20210528 |
52.113% |
2. |
Minic 3.07 |
Pedone 20210528 |
21.601% |
3. |
Fritz 17_20200830 |
Pedone 20210528 |
11.809% |
4. |
Booot 6.5 |
Pedone 20210528 |
11.450% |
5. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
Pedone 20210528 |
2.896% |
6. |
Booot 6.5 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
0.131% |
Speculate Arasan 22.3.0 – Booot 6.5 1-0
eloAdvantage = -47.952 and eloDraw = 245.005 based on Season 20 League 3 games
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
|
9-12. |
|
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
1. |
Pedone 20210528 |
|
95.575% |
4.425% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
|
4.425% |
43.548% |
|
47.973% |
|
36.047% |
11.531% |
3.545% |
0.900% |
0.004% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 3.07 |
|
|
32.711% |
|
32.711% |
|
32.471% |
15.240% |
8.744% |
10.551% |
0.276% |
0.007% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Fritz 17_20200830 |
|
|
15.902% |
|
15.902% |
|
19.136% |
43.479% |
16.739% |
3.421% |
0.884% |
0.426% |
|
0.013% |
|
0.013% |
|
|
|
5. |
Booot 6.5 |
|
|
0.112% |
|
0.112% |
|
4.484% |
17.929% |
55.184% |
19.976% |
2.259% |
0.056% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
|
|
3.302% |
|
3.302% |
|
7.862% |
11.778% |
14.594% |
56.752% |
4.832% |
0.763% |
|
0.117% |
|
0.117% |
|
|
|
7. |
Halogen 10.12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.043% |
0.952% |
5.512% |
60.637% |
27.688% |
|
5.168% |
|
5.163% |
0.005% |
|
|
8. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
1.263% |
26.267% |
45.819% |
|
26.636% |
|
23.058% |
3.578% |
|
|
9. |
Winter 9.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.227% |
1.625% |
4.826% |
24.531% |
|
68.791% |
|
68.059% |
0.732% |
|
|
10. |
ClassicAra 0.9.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.015% |
0.710% |
|
99.275% |
|
3.590% |
93.980% |
1.705% |
|
11. |
Seer 20210531 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
1.705% |
87.955% |
10.340% |
12. |
Arasan 22.3.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
10.340% |
89.660% |
Top promotions
Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
1. |
Pedone 20210528 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
43.548% |
2. |
Pedone 20210528 |
Minic 3.07 |
32.711% |
3. |
Pedone 20210528 |
Fritz 17_20200830 |
15.902% |
4. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
Pedone 20210528 |
4.425% |
5. |
Pedone 20210528 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
3.302% |
6. |
Pedone 20210528 |
Booot 6.5 |
0.112% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
1. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
Pedone 20210528 |
47.973% |
2. |
Minic 3.07 |
Pedone 20210528 |
32.711% |
3. |
Fritz 17_20200830 |
Pedone 20210528 |
15.902% |
4. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
Pedone 20210528 |
3.302% |
5. |
Booot 6.5 |
Pedone 20210528 |
0.112% |
Speculate Arasan 22.3.0 – Booot 6.5 1/2-1/2
eloAdvantage = -47.952 and eloDraw = 245.005 based on Season 20 League 3 games
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
|
9-12. |
|
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
1. |
Pedone 20210528 |
|
95.486% |
4.514% |
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
|
4.514% |
47.337% |
|
51.851% |
|
31.974% |
8.946% |
5.751% |
1.408% |
0.070% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Minic 3.07 |
|
|
26.913% |
|
26.913% |
|
27.438% |
18.648% |
13.201% |
13.451% |
0.338% |
0.011% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Booot 6.5 |
|
|
3.660% |
|
3.660% |
|
19.425% |
38.233% |
23.720% |
14.925% |
0.037% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Fritz 17_20200830 |
|
|
14.293% |
|
14.293% |
|
15.863% |
23.970% |
37.809% |
6.416% |
1.189% |
0.436% |
|
0.024% |
|
0.024% |
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
|
|
3.283% |
|
3.283% |
|
5.300% |
10.182% |
18.681% |
56.859% |
4.820% |
0.733% |
|
0.142% |
|
0.142% |
|
|
|
7. |
Halogen 10.12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.021% |
0.630% |
4.866% |
62.149% |
27.232% |
|
5.102% |
|
5.099% |
0.003% |
|
|
8. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.438% |
26.722% |
45.781% |
|
27.059% |
|
23.431% |
3.628% |
|
|
9. |
Winter 9.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.208% |
1.637% |
4.656% |
25.062% |
|
68.437% |
|
67.678% |
0.759% |
|
|
10. |
ClassicAra 0.9.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.019% |
0.745% |
|
99.236% |
|
3.626% |
93.923% |
1.687% |
|
11. |
Seer 20210531 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
1.687% |
97.256% |
1.057% |
12. |
Arasan 22.3.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
1.057% |
98.943% |
Top promotions
Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
1. |
Pedone 20210528 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
47.337% |
2. |
Pedone 20210528 |
Minic 3.07 |
26.913% |
3. |
Pedone 20210528 |
Fritz 17_20200830 |
14.293% |
4. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
Pedone 20210528 |
4.514% |
5. |
Pedone 20210528 |
Booot 6.5 |
3.660% |
6. |
Pedone 20210528 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
3.283% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
1. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
Pedone 20210528 |
51.851% |
2. |
Minic 3.07 |
Pedone 20210528 |
26.913% |
3. |
Fritz 17_20200830 |
Pedone 20210528 |
14.293% |
4. |
Booot 6.5 |
Pedone 20210528 |
3.660% |
5. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
Pedone 20210528 |
3.283% |
Speculate Arasan 22.3.0 – Booot 6.5 0-1
eloAdvantage = -47.952 and eloDraw = 245.005 based on Season 20 League 3 games
Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
7. |
8. |
|
9-12. |
|
9. |
10. |
11. |
12. |
1. |
Pedone 20210528 |
|
95.534% |
4.155% |
|
99.689% |
|
0.311% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
|
4.393% |
48.438% |
|
52.831% |
|
18.274% |
16.326% |
10.108% |
2.338% |
0.123% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. |
Booot 6.5 |
|
0.073% |
23.543% |
|
23.616% |
|
34.832% |
26.799% |
13.122% |
1.631% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4. |
Minic 3.07 |
|
|
12.841% |
|
12.841% |
|
27.286% |
28.643% |
15.434% |
15.439% |
0.351% |
0.006% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. |
Fritz 17_20200830 |
|
|
8.334% |
|
8.334% |
|
14.317% |
18.343% |
46.340% |
10.884% |
1.301% |
0.458% |
|
0.023% |
|
0.023% |
|
|
|
6. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
|
|
2.689% |
|
2.689% |
|
4.980% |
9.868% |
14.170% |
62.274% |
5.115% |
0.785% |
|
0.119% |
|
0.119% |
|
|
|
7. |
Halogen 10.12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.021% |
0.627% |
5.256% |
62.448% |
26.695% |
|
4.953% |
|
4.942% |
0.011% |
|
|
8. |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.423% |
26.071% |
46.510% |
|
26.996% |
|
23.312% |
3.684% |
|
|
9. |
Winter 9.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.199% |
1.755% |
4.575% |
24.813% |
|
68.658% |
|
67.903% |
0.755% |
|
|
10. |
ClassicAra 0.9.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.016% |
0.733% |
|
99.251% |
|
3.701% |
93.891% |
1.659% |
|
11. |
Seer 20210531 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
1.659% |
98.341% |
|
12. |
Arasan 22.3.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
|
|
|
|
100.000% |
Top promotions
Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
1. |
Pedone 20210528 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
48.438% |
2. |
Pedone 20210528 |
Booot 6.5 |
23.232% |
3. |
Pedone 20210528 |
Minic 3.07 |
12.841% |
4. |
Pedone 20210528 |
Fritz 17_20200830 |
8.334% |
5. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
Pedone 20210528 |
4.082% |
6. |
Pedone 20210528 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
2.689% |
7. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
Booot 6.5 |
0.311% |
8. |
Booot 6.5 |
Pedone 20210528 |
0.073% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
1. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
Pedone 20210528 |
52.520% |
2. |
Booot 6.5 |
Pedone 20210528 |
23.305% |
3. |
Minic 3.07 |
Pedone 20210528 |
12.841% |
4. |
Fritz 17_20200830 |
Pedone 20210528 |
8.334% |
5. |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
Pedone 20210528 |
2.689% |
6. |
Booot 6.5 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
0.311% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
1 |
Pedone 20210528 |
13.5 |
14.67 |
0.61 |
1.05 |
95 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
Nemorino 6.06/6.08 |
12.0 |
13.05 |
0.60 |
2.86 |
5 |
43 |
25 |
16 |
9 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Booot 6.5 |
11.5 |
12.72 |
0.59 |
3.71 |
0 |
21 |
26 |
24 |
18 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Minic 3.06_alpha/3.06_beta/3.06/3.07/3.07 64GiB/3.07 128GiB |
11.5 |
12.65 |
0.60 |
3.91 |
0 |
17 |
23 |
25 |
20 |
12 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Fritz 17_20200830 |
11.5 |
12.51 |
0.61 |
4.26 |
0 |
11 |
18 |
26 |
30 |
10 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
11.0 |
11.88 |
0.60 |
5.53 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
9 |
17 |
48 |
14 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Halogen 10.11.1/10.12 |
10.0 |
11.15 |
0.58 |
7.08 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
15 |
53 |
20 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
9.5 |
10.55 |
0.60 |
8.23 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
16 |
43 |
36 |
3 |
0 |
9 |
Winter 9.4 |
9.5 |
10.41 |
0.60 |
8.43 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
11 |
34 |
53 |
2 |
0 |
10 |
ClassicAra 0.9.1-Dev/0.9.2.post0/0.9.2.post1/0.9.4 |
8.0 |
8.90 |
0.59 |
9.97 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
94 |
2 |
11 |
Seer 20210530/20210531 |
6.5 |
7.32 |
0.60 |
11.04 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
93 |
12 |
Arasan 22.2.0-61-353561f/22.3.0 |
5.5 |
6.18 |
0.58 |
11.95 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 1.09h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
2021-06-11 04:23 |
122 |
Fritz 17_20200830 |
Halogen 10.12 |
2021-06-11 05:28 |
123 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
Winter 9.4 |
2021-06-11 06:33 |
124 |
Seer 20210531 |
Pedone 20210528 |
2021-06-11 07:38 |
125 |
ClassicAra 0.9.4 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
2021-06-11 08:43 |
126 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
Minic 3.07 |
2021-06-11 09:48 |
127 |
Booot 6.5 |
Defenchess 2.3_dev2 |
2021-06-11 10:53 |
128 |
Minic 3.07 |
ClassicAra 0.9.4 |
2021-06-11 11:59 |
129 |
Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 |
Seer 20210531 |
2021-06-11 13:04 |
130 |
Pedone 20210528 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
2021-06-11 14:09 |
131 |
Winter 9.4 |
Fritz 17_20200830 |
2021-06-11 15:14 |
132 |
Halogen 10.12 |
Arasan 22.3.0 |