Jun 11 2021
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For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = -47.952 and eloDraw = 245.005 based on Season 20 League 3 games

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-12. 9. 10. 11. 12.
1. Pedone 20210528 95.457% 4.207% 99.664% 0.336%
2. Nemorino 6.08 4.467% 50.563% 55.030% 16.364% 15.598% 10.622% 2.386%
3. Booot 6.5 0.076% 24.098% 24.174% 34.687% 24.852% 14.371% 1.916%
4. Minic 3.07 13.497% 13.497% 29.427% 27.600% 12.010% 17.300% 0.164% 0.002%
5. Fritz 17_20200830 5.064% 5.064% 15.365% 22.730% 48.662% 8.179%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 2.571% 2.571% 3.821% 9.220% 14.335% 66.679% 2.818% 0.455% 0.101% 0.101%
7. Halogen 10.12 1.518% 66.422% 29.069% 2.991% 2.991%
8. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 0.429% 27.062% 44.734% 27.775% 24.168% 3.607%
9. Winter 9.4 1.593% 3.534% 25.064% 69.809% 69.094% 0.715%
10. ClassicAra 0.9.4 0.676% 99.324% 3.646% 94.053% 1.625%
11. Seer 20210531 100.000% 1.625% 98.375%
12. Arasan 22.3.0 100.000% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Pedone 20210528 Nemorino 6.08 50.563%
2. Pedone 20210528 Booot 6.5 23.762%
3. Pedone 20210528 Minic 3.07 13.497%
4. Pedone 20210528 Fritz 17_20200830 5.064%
5. Nemorino 6.08 Pedone 20210528 4.131%
6. Pedone 20210528 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 2.571%
7. Nemorino 6.08 Booot 6.5 0.336%
8. Booot 6.5 Pedone 20210528 0.076%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Nemorino 6.08 Pedone 20210528 54.694%
2. Booot 6.5 Pedone 20210528 23.838%
3. Minic 3.07 Pedone 20210528 13.497%
4. Fritz 17_20200830 Pedone 20210528 5.064%
5. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Pedone 20210528 2.571%
6. Booot 6.5 Nemorino 6.08 0.336%

Speculate Nemorino 6.08 – Winter 9.4 1-0

eloAdvantage = -47.952 and eloDraw = 245.005 based on Season 20 League 3 games

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-12. 9. 10. 11. 12.
1. Pedone 20210528 85.463% 14.125% 99.588% 0.412%
2. Nemorino 6.08 14.537% 75.135% 89.672% 8.308% 1.964% 0.056%
3. Booot 6.5 3.726% 3.726% 53.122% 26.709% 15.755% 0.688%
4. Minic 3.07 6.075% 6.075% 20.233% 40.796% 14.292% 18.485% 0.119%
5. Fritz 17_20200830 0.615% 0.615% 14.966% 20.855% 54.186% 9.378%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.324% 0.324% 2.959% 9.676% 15.711% 69.513% 1.739% 0.078%
7. Halogen 10.12 1.540% 69.186% 29.274%
8. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 0.396% 28.956% 62.699% 7.949% 5.660% 2.289%
9. Winter 9.4 5.751% 94.249% 91.932% 2.317%
10. ClassicAra 0.9.4 2.198% 97.802% 2.408% 93.786% 1.608%
11. Seer 20210531 100.000% 1.608% 98.392%
12. Arasan 22.3.0 100.000% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Pedone 20210528 Nemorino 6.08 75.135%
2. Nemorino 6.08 Pedone 20210528 14.125%
3. Pedone 20210528 Minic 3.07 6.075%
4. Pedone 20210528 Booot 6.5 3.314%
5. Pedone 20210528 Fritz 17_20200830 0.615%
6. Nemorino 6.08 Booot 6.5 0.412%
7. Pedone 20210528 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 0.324%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Nemorino 6.08 Pedone 20210528 89.260%
2. Minic 3.07 Pedone 20210528 6.075%
3. Booot 6.5 Pedone 20210528 3.314%
4. Fritz 17_20200830 Pedone 20210528 0.615%
5. Booot 6.5 Nemorino 6.08 0.412%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Pedone 20210528 0.324%

Speculate Nemorino 6.08 – Winter 9.4 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = -47.952 and eloDraw = 245.005 based on Season 20 League 3 games

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-12. 9. 10. 11. 12.
1. Pedone 20210528 97.765% 1.815% 99.580% 0.420%
2. Nemorino 6.08 2.235% 53.994% 56.229% 20.426% 15.456% 7.735% 0.154%
3. Booot 6.5 22.846% 22.846% 32.704% 27.629% 15.059% 1.762%
4. Minic 3.07 14.221% 14.221% 28.155% 27.020% 12.423% 18.082% 0.099%
5. Fritz 17_20200830 4.651% 4.651% 15.069% 20.742% 50.862% 8.676%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 2.473% 2.473% 3.226% 9.153% 13.921% 68.916% 1.948% 0.304% 0.059% 0.059%
7. Halogen 10.12 1.570% 68.198% 28.696% 1.536% 1.536%
8. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 0.402% 28.167% 45.399% 26.032% 22.110% 3.922%
9. Winter 9.4 0.438% 1.588% 25.202% 72.772% 72.373% 0.399%
10. ClassicAra 0.9.4 0.399% 99.601% 3.922% 94.027% 1.652%
11. Seer 20210531 100.000% 1.652% 98.348%
12. Arasan 22.3.0 100.000% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Pedone 20210528 Nemorino 6.08 53.994%
2. Pedone 20210528 Booot 6.5 22.426%
3. Pedone 20210528 Minic 3.07 14.221%
4. Pedone 20210528 Fritz 17_20200830 4.651%
5. Pedone 20210528 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 2.473%
6. Nemorino 6.08 Pedone 20210528 1.815%
7. Nemorino 6.08 Booot 6.5 0.420%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Nemorino 6.08 Pedone 20210528 55.809%
2. Booot 6.5 Pedone 20210528 22.426%
3. Minic 3.07 Pedone 20210528 14.221%
4. Fritz 17_20200830 Pedone 20210528 4.651%
5. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Pedone 20210528 2.473%
6. Booot 6.5 Nemorino 6.08 0.420%

Speculate Nemorino 6.08 – Winter 9.4 0-1

eloAdvantage = -47.952 and eloDraw = 245.005 based on Season 20 League 3 games

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9-12. 9. 10. 11. 12.
1. Pedone 20210528 99.614% 0.386% 100.000%
2. Booot 6.5 0.386% 51.147% 51.533% 21.248% 13.494% 9.810% 3.915%
3. Minic 3.07 18.395% 18.395% 42.806% 15.015% 8.565% 14.764% 0.446% 0.009%
4. Fritz 17_20200830 11.559% 11.559% 17.307% 30.683% 35.208% 5.243%
5. Nemorino 6.08 13.055% 13.055% 11.945% 31.594% 31.663% 11.743%
6. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 5.458% 5.458% 6.694% 9.214% 14.754% 55.108% 7.049% 1.442% 0.281% 0.281%
7. Halogen 10.12 1.722% 57.511% 30.053% 10.714% 10.714%
8. Winter 9.4 6.874% 13.683% 45.334% 34.109% 34.109%
9. Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 0.631% 21.311% 23.162% 54.896% 50.481% 4.415%
10. ClassicAra 0.9.4 100.000% 4.415% 93.929% 1.656%
11. Seer 20210531 100.000% 1.656% 98.344%
12. Arasan 22.3.0 100.000% 100.000%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Pedone 20210528 Booot 6.5 51.147%
2. Pedone 20210528 Minic 3.07 18.395%
3. Pedone 20210528 Nemorino 6.08 13.055%
4. Pedone 20210528 Fritz 17_20200830 11.559%
5. Pedone 20210528 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 5.458%
6. Booot 6.5 Pedone 20210528 0.386%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Booot 6.5 Pedone 20210528 51.533%
2. Minic 3.07 Pedone 20210528 18.395%
3. Nemorino 6.08 Pedone 20210528 13.055%
4. Fritz 17_20200830 Pedone 20210528 11.559%
5. Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Pedone 20210528 5.458%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1 Pedone 20210528 13.5 14.67 0.60 1.05 95 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Booot 6.5 12.5 13.09 0.42 2.90 0 44 31 18 7 1 0 0 0 0 0
3 Nemorino 6.06/6.08 12.0 13.05 0.60 3.00 5 35 29 19 10 1 0 0 0 0 0
4 Minic 3.06_alpha/3.06_beta/3.06/3.07/3.07 64GiB/3.07 128GiB 11.5 12.66 0.59 4.08 0 12 22 29 21 16 0 0 0 0 0
5 Fritz 17_20200830 12.0 12.48 0.43 4.50 0 2 12 28 48 10 0 0 0 0 0
6 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 11.0 11.88 0.60 5.65 0 2 6 6 14 57 12 3 0 0 0
7 Halogen 10.11.1/10.12 10.5 11.20 0.39 7.09 0 0 0 0 0 13 69 16 3 0 0
8 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 9.5 10.55 0.60 8.29 0 0 0 0 0 1 12 46 38 3 0
9 Winter 9.4 9.5 10.41 0.60 8.49 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 35 55 2 0
10 ClassicAra 0.9.1-Dev/0.9.2.post0/0.9.2.post1/0.9.4 8.0 8.90 0.59 9.97 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 94 1
11 Seer 20210530/20210531 6.5 7.32 0.60 10.99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 99
12 Arasan 22.2.0-61-353561f/22.3.0 5.5 5.80 0.39 12.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Expected start time based on estimate of 1.09h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2021-06-11 06:37 124 Seer 20210531 Pedone 20210528
2021-06-11 07:42 125 ClassicAra 0.9.4 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19
2021-06-11 08:48 126 Defenchess 2.3_dev2 Minic 3.07
2021-06-11 09:53 127 Booot 6.5 Defenchess 2.3_dev2
2021-06-11 10:58 128 Minic 3.07 ClassicAra 0.9.4
2021-06-11 12:03 129 Vajolet2 2.9.0-TCEC-S19 Seer 20210531
2021-06-11 13:08 130 Pedone 20210528 Nemorino 6.08
2021-06-11 14:14 131 Winter 9.4 Fritz 17_20200830
2021-06-11 15:19 132 Halogen 10.12 Arasan 22.3.0
Posted inBayesElo