For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 170.829 and eloDraw = 189.560 based on Season 20 League 3 games

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Igel 3.0.5 44.746% 21.914% 66.660% 13.172% 8.897% 5.719% 3.362% 2.190% 1.703% 0.487%
2. Ethereal 12.95 22.787% 22.567% 45.354% 17.565% 13.853% 10.542% 7.315% 5.371% 4.044% 1.327%
3. RubiChess TCEC-S21 12.239% 17.939% 30.178% 18.443% 16.737% 14.627% 10.855% 9.160% 6.761% 2.399%
4. Nemorino 6.08 7.543% 13.878% 21.421% 18.066% 19.045% 17.559% 13.497% 10.412% 7.953% 2.459%
5. Pedone 20210528 7.893% 13.817% 21.710% 16.981% 17.870% 16.842% 13.821% 12.776% 9.304% 3.472%
6. SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx 3.968% 7.052% 11.020% 9.689% 12.534% 15.552% 19.248% 31.957% 19.317% 12.640%
7. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.574% 2.029% 2.603% 4.445% 8.097% 13.943% 22.099% 48.813% 31.503% 17.310%
8. rofChade 2.309 0.250% 0.804% 1.054% 1.639% 2.967% 5.216% 9.803% 79.321% 19.415% 59.906%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Igel 3.0.5 Ethereal 12.95 14.832%
2. Igel 3.0.5 RubiChess TCEC-S21 10.306%
3. Ethereal 12.95 Igel 3.0.5 9.900%
4. Igel 3.0.5 Pedone 20210528 7.535%
5. Igel 3.0.5 Nemorino 6.08 7.489%
6. RubiChess TCEC-S21 Igel 3.0.5 4.721%
7. Ethereal 12.95 RubiChess TCEC-S21 4.199%
8. Igel 3.0.5 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx 3.310%
9. Ethereal 12.95 Pedone 20210528 3.260%
10. RubiChess TCEC-S21 Ethereal 12.95 3.151%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Ethereal 12.95 Igel 3.0.5 24.732%
2. Igel 3.0.5 RubiChess TCEC-S21 15.027%
3. Igel 3.0.5 Pedone 20210528 10.386%
4. Igel 3.0.5 Nemorino 6.08 10.148%
5. Ethereal 12.95 RubiChess TCEC-S21 7.350%
6. Ethereal 12.95 Pedone 20210528 5.102%
7. Ethereal 12.95 Nemorino 6.08 4.876%
8. Igel 3.0.5 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx 4.838%
9. Nemorino 6.08 RubiChess TCEC-S21 2.964%
10. Pedone 20210528 RubiChess TCEC-S21 2.845%

Speculate Xiphos 0.6.1 – Pedone 20210528 1-0

eloAdvantage = 170.829 and eloDraw = 189.560 based on Season 20 League 3 games

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Igel 3.0.5 45.755% 22.194% 67.949% 13.000% 8.085% 5.301% 3.296% 2.369% 1.814% 0.555%
2. Ethereal 12.95 23.372% 23.076% 46.448% 17.495% 13.342% 9.753% 7.111% 5.851% 4.433% 1.418%
3. RubiChess TCEC-S21 12.701% 18.598% 31.299% 18.705% 16.594% 13.648% 10.267% 9.487% 7.006% 2.481%
4. Nemorino 6.08 7.800% 14.872% 22.672% 18.320% 18.617% 16.701% 12.891% 10.799% 8.137% 2.662%
5. Pedone 20210528 4.906% 9.890% 14.796% 14.058% 16.771% 17.811% 16.896% 19.668% 13.915% 5.753%
6. SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx 4.314% 7.393% 11.707% 10.086% 12.429% 15.015% 17.528% 33.235% 20.067% 13.168%
7. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.885% 3.203% 4.088% 6.646% 11.128% 16.659% 22.790% 38.689% 26.468% 12.221%
8. rofChade 2.309 0.267% 0.774% 1.041% 1.690% 3.034% 5.112% 9.221% 79.902% 18.160% 61.742%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Igel 3.0.5 Ethereal 12.95 15.643%
2. Igel 3.0.5 RubiChess TCEC-S21 10.963%
3. Ethereal 12.95 Igel 3.0.5 10.514%
4. Igel 3.0.5 Nemorino 6.08 8.259%
5. Igel 3.0.5 Pedone 20210528 5.259%
6. RubiChess TCEC-S21 Igel 3.0.5 5.039%
7. Ethereal 12.95 RubiChess TCEC-S21 4.403%
8. Igel 3.0.5 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx 3.648%
9. Ethereal 12.95 Nemorino 6.08 3.399%
10. RubiChess TCEC-S21 Ethereal 12.95 3.359%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Ethereal 12.95 Igel 3.0.5 26.157%
2. Igel 3.0.5 RubiChess TCEC-S21 16.002%
3. Igel 3.0.5 Nemorino 6.08 11.109%
4. Ethereal 12.95 RubiChess TCEC-S21 7.762%
5. Igel 3.0.5 Pedone 20210528 6.985%
6. Igel 3.0.5 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx 5.359%
7. Ethereal 12.95 Nemorino 6.08 5.300%
8. Ethereal 12.95 Pedone 20210528 3.353%
9. Nemorino 6.08 RubiChess TCEC-S21 3.271%
10. Ethereal 12.95 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx 2.727%

Speculate Xiphos 0.6.1 – Pedone 20210528 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 170.829 and eloDraw = 189.560 based on Season 20 League 3 games

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Igel 3.0.5 44.479% 22.124% 66.603% 13.384% 8.722% 5.650% 3.504% 2.137% 1.648% 0.489%
2. Ethereal 12.95 22.892% 22.176% 45.068% 17.551% 14.033% 10.610% 7.302% 5.436% 4.105% 1.331%
3. RubiChess TCEC-S21 12.251% 17.673% 29.924% 18.360% 17.071% 14.685% 10.762% 9.198% 6.818% 2.380%
4. Pedone 20210528 8.228% 14.475% 22.703% 17.638% 18.510% 17.018% 13.224% 10.907% 8.193% 2.714%
5. Nemorino 6.08 7.446% 14.136% 21.582% 18.121% 19.134% 17.831% 13.243% 10.089% 7.736% 2.353%
6. SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx 4.008% 7.084% 11.092% 9.609% 12.236% 15.624% 19.338% 32.101% 19.490% 12.611%
7. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.429% 1.561% 1.990% 3.732% 7.293% 13.294% 22.832% 50.859% 32.681% 18.178%
8. rofChade 2.309 0.267% 0.771% 1.038% 1.605% 3.001% 5.288% 9.795% 79.273% 19.329% 59.944%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Igel 3.0.5 Ethereal 12.95 14.449%
2. Igel 3.0.5 RubiChess TCEC-S21 10.169%
3. Ethereal 12.95 Igel 3.0.5 10.015%
4. Igel 3.0.5 Pedone 20210528 7.820%
5. Igel 3.0.5 Nemorino 6.08 7.616%
6. RubiChess TCEC-S21 Igel 3.0.5 4.664%
7. Ethereal 12.95 RubiChess TCEC-S21 4.078%
8. Ethereal 12.95 Pedone 20210528 3.408%
9. Igel 3.0.5 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx 3.349%
10. Ethereal 12.95 Nemorino 6.08 3.160%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Ethereal 12.95 Igel 3.0.5 24.464%
2. Igel 3.0.5 RubiChess TCEC-S21 14.833%
3. Igel 3.0.5 Pedone 20210528 10.841%
4. Igel 3.0.5 Nemorino 6.08 10.247%
5. Ethereal 12.95 RubiChess TCEC-S21 7.218%
6. Ethereal 12.95 Pedone 20210528 5.309%
7. Ethereal 12.95 Nemorino 6.08 4.944%
8. Igel 3.0.5 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx 4.899%
9. Pedone 20210528 RubiChess TCEC-S21 3.080%
10. Nemorino 6.08 RubiChess TCEC-S21 2.977%

Speculate Xiphos 0.6.1 – Pedone 20210528 0-1

eloAdvantage = 170.829 and eloDraw = 189.560 based on Season 20 League 3 games

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Igel 3.0.5 42.677% 21.907% 64.584% 14.108% 9.470% 6.385% 3.588% 1.865% 1.477% 0.388%
2. Ethereal 12.95 21.606% 21.491% 43.097% 17.881% 14.798% 11.678% 7.768% 4.778% 3.725% 1.053%
3. Pedone 20210528 13.374% 19.046% 32.420% 20.145% 18.238% 14.924% 9.191% 5.082% 3.994% 1.088%
4. RubiChess TCEC-S21 11.560% 16.818% 28.378% 18.141% 17.800% 15.927% 11.597% 8.157% 6.111% 2.046%
5. Nemorino 6.08 6.737% 12.944% 19.681% 17.275% 20.052% 19.463% 14.343% 9.186% 7.083% 2.103%
6. SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx 3.670% 6.480% 10.150% 9.148% 12.493% 16.669% 22.082% 29.458% 18.129% 11.329%
7. Xiphos 0.6.1 0.141% 0.671% 0.812% 1.853% 4.358% 9.493% 20.550% 62.934% 37.717% 25.217%
8. rofChade 2.309 0.235% 0.643% 0.878% 1.449% 2.791% 5.461% 10.881% 78.540% 21.764% 56.776%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Igel 3.0.5 Ethereal 12.95 13.175%
2. Igel 3.0.5 Pedone 20210528 10.392%
3. Igel 3.0.5 RubiChess TCEC-S21 9.193%
4. Ethereal 12.95 Igel 3.0.5 9.023%
5. Igel 3.0.5 Nemorino 6.08 6.501%
6. Pedone 20210528 Igel 3.0.5 4.879%
7. Ethereal 12.95 Pedone 20210528 4.515%
8. RubiChess TCEC-S21 Igel 3.0.5 4.124%
9. Ethereal 12.95 RubiChess TCEC-S21 3.637%
10. Pedone 20210528 Ethereal 12.95 3.164%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. Ethereal 12.95 Igel 3.0.5 22.198%
2. Igel 3.0.5 Pedone 20210528 15.271%
3. Igel 3.0.5 RubiChess TCEC-S21 13.317%
4. Igel 3.0.5 Nemorino 6.08 8.874%
5. Ethereal 12.95 Pedone 20210528 7.679%
6. Ethereal 12.95 RubiChess TCEC-S21 6.492%
7. Pedone 20210528 RubiChess TCEC-S21 4.558%
8. Igel 3.0.5 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx 4.239%
9. Ethereal 12.95 Nemorino 6.08 4.235%
10. Nemorino 6.08 Pedone 20210528 3.102%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 Igel 3.0.5 5.0 17.25 2.57 2.30 44 22 14 9 6 4 2
2 Ethereal 12.95 4.5 15.94 2.56 3.13 23 22 17 14 10 7 4
3 RubiChess 2.2-dev/2.2-dev 128GiB/TCEC-S21 3.5 14.93 2.39 3.81 11 17 18 17 15 11 7
4 Pedone 20210528 3.5 14.80 2.38 3.92 10 16 18 18 16 12 8
5 Nemorino 6.06/6.08 4.0 14.27 2.21 4.33 6 12 16 19 19 16 9
6 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx 3.0 13.26 2.63 5.08 5 8 11 13 16 19 18
7 Xiphos 0.6.1 2.0 11.73 2.10 6.27 0 2 4 7 13 22 33
8 rofChade 2.309 1.5 9.82 2.61 7.16 0 1 2 3 6 10 19

Expected start time based on estimate of 6.93h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2021-06-13 19:00 29 RubiChess TCEC-S21 Pedone 20210528
2021-06-14 01:56 30 Xiphos 0.6.1 Ethereal 12.95
2021-06-14 08:51 31 rofChade 2.309 Igel 3.0.5
2021-06-14 15:47 32 Nemorino 6.08 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx
2021-06-14 22:43 33 Nemorino 6.08 RubiChess TCEC-S21
2021-06-15 05:39 34 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx rofChade 2.309
2021-06-15 12:34 35 Igel 3.0.5 Xiphos 0.6.1
2021-06-15 19:30 36 Ethereal 12.95 Pedone 20210528
2021-06-16 02:26 37 RubiChess TCEC-S21 Ethereal 12.95
2021-06-16 09:22 38 Pedone 20210528 Igel 3.0.5
2021-06-16 16:17 39 Xiphos 0.6.1 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx
2021-06-16 23:13 40 rofChade 2.309 Nemorino 6.08
2021-06-17 06:09 41 rofChade 2.309 RubiChess TCEC-S21
2021-06-17 13:04 42 Nemorino 6.08 Xiphos 0.6.1
2021-06-17 20:00 43 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx Pedone 20210528
2021-06-18 02:56 44 Igel 3.0.5 Ethereal 12.95
2021-06-18 09:52 45 RubiChess TCEC-S21 Igel 3.0.5
2021-06-18 16:47 46 Ethereal 12.95 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx
2021-06-18 23:43 47 Pedone 20210528 Nemorino 6.08
2021-06-19 06:39 48 Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.309
2021-06-19 13:35 49 Xiphos 0.6.1 RubiChess TCEC-S21
2021-06-19 20:30 50 rofChade 2.309 Pedone 20210528
2021-06-20 03:26 51 Nemorino 6.08 Ethereal 12.95
2021-06-20 10:22 52 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx Igel 3.0.5
2021-06-20 17:17 53 RubiChess TCEC-S21 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx
2021-06-21 00:13 54 Igel 3.0.5 Nemorino 6.08
2021-06-21 07:09 55 Ethereal 12.95 rofChade 2.309
2021-06-21 14:05 56 Pedone 20210528 Xiphos 0.6.1
2021-06-21 21:00 57 Pedone 20210528 RubiChess TCEC-S21
2021-06-22 03:56 58 Ethereal 12.95 Xiphos 0.6.1
2021-06-22 10:52 59 Igel 3.0.5 rofChade 2.309
2021-06-22 17:48 60 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx Nemorino 6.08
2021-06-23 00:43 61 RubiChess TCEC-S21 Nemorino 6.08
2021-06-23 07:39 62 rofChade 2.309 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx
2021-06-23 14:35 63 Xiphos 0.6.1 Igel 3.0.5
2021-06-23 21:31 64 Pedone 20210528 Ethereal 12.95
2021-06-24 04:26 65 Ethereal 12.95 RubiChess TCEC-S21
2021-06-24 11:22 66 Igel 3.0.5 Pedone 20210528
2021-06-24 18:18 67 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx Xiphos 0.6.1
2021-06-25 01:13 68 Nemorino 6.08 rofChade 2.309
2021-06-25 08:09 69 RubiChess TCEC-S21 rofChade 2.309
2021-06-25 15:05 70 Xiphos 0.6.1 Nemorino 6.08
2021-06-25 22:01 71 Pedone 20210528 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx
2021-06-26 04:56 72 Ethereal 12.95 Igel 3.0.5
2021-06-26 11:52 73 Igel 3.0.5 RubiChess TCEC-S21
2021-06-26 18:48 74 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx Ethereal 12.95
2021-06-27 01:44 75 Nemorino 6.08 Pedone 20210528
2021-06-27 08:39 76 rofChade 2.309 Xiphos 0.6.1
2021-06-27 15:35 77 RubiChess TCEC-S21 Xiphos 0.6.1
2021-06-27 22:31 78 Pedone 20210528 rofChade 2.309
2021-06-28 05:26 79 Ethereal 12.95 Nemorino 6.08
2021-06-28 12:22 80 Igel 3.0.5 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx
2021-06-28 19:18 81 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx RubiChess TCEC-S21
2021-06-29 02:14 82 Nemorino 6.08 Igel 3.0.5
2021-06-29 09:09 83 rofChade 2.309 Ethereal 12.95
2021-06-29 16:05 84 Xiphos 0.6.1 Pedone 20210528
2021-06-29 23:01 85 RubiChess TCEC-S21 Pedone 20210528
2021-06-30 05:57 86 Xiphos 0.6.1 Ethereal 12.95
2021-06-30 12:52 87 rofChade 2.309 Igel 3.0.5
2021-06-30 19:48 88 Nemorino 6.08 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx
2021-07-01 02:44 89 Nemorino 6.08 RubiChess TCEC-S21
2021-07-01 09:39 90 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx rofChade 2.309
2021-07-01 16:35 91 Igel 3.0.5 Xiphos 0.6.1
2021-07-01 23:31 92 Ethereal 12.95 Pedone 20210528
2021-07-02 06:27 93 RubiChess TCEC-S21 Ethereal 12.95
2021-07-02 13:22 94 Pedone 20210528 Igel 3.0.5
2021-07-02 20:18 95 Xiphos 0.6.1 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx
2021-07-03 03:14 96 rofChade 2.309 Nemorino 6.08
2021-07-03 10:10 97 rofChade 2.309 RubiChess TCEC-S21
2021-07-03 17:05 98 Nemorino 6.08 Xiphos 0.6.1
2021-07-04 00:01 99 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx Pedone 20210528
2021-07-04 06:57 100 Igel 3.0.5 Ethereal 12.95
2021-07-04 13:53 101 RubiChess TCEC-S21 Igel 3.0.5
2021-07-04 20:48 102 Ethereal 12.95 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx
2021-07-05 03:44 103 Pedone 20210528 Nemorino 6.08
2021-07-05 10:40 104 Xiphos 0.6.1 rofChade 2.309
2021-07-05 17:35 105 Xiphos 0.6.1 RubiChess TCEC-S21
2021-07-06 00:31 106 rofChade 2.309 Pedone 20210528
2021-07-06 07:27 107 Nemorino 6.08 Ethereal 12.95
2021-07-06 14:23 108 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx Igel 3.0.5
2021-07-06 21:18 109 RubiChess TCEC-S21 SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx
2021-07-07 04:14 110 Igel 3.0.5 Nemorino 6.08
2021-07-07 11:10 111 Ethereal 12.95 rofChade 2.309
2021-07-07 18:06 112 Pedone 20210528 Xiphos 0.6.1