For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post
Situation before game, simulation about most common position
100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 170.829 and eloDraw = 189.560 based on Season 20 League 1 games
| Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
7-8. |
|
7. |
8. |
| 1. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
|
79.021% |
20.727% |
|
99.748% |
|
0.252% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
|
20.936% |
74.783% |
|
95.719% |
|
3.854% |
0.427% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 3. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
|
0.037% |
3.580% |
|
3.617% |
|
78.979% |
16.794% |
0.587% |
0.023% |
|
|
|
|
|
| 4. |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
|
0.006% |
0.910% |
|
0.916% |
|
16.655% |
62.839% |
15.416% |
3.545% |
|
0.629% |
|
0.594% |
0.035% |
| 5. |
Pedone 20210528 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.086% |
13.006% |
33.959% |
26.842% |
|
26.107% |
|
16.719% |
9.388% |
| 6. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.101% |
2.325% |
21.730% |
26.132% |
|
49.712% |
|
26.395% |
23.317% |
| 7. |
rofChade 2.309 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.056% |
3.977% |
17.439% |
21.691% |
|
56.837% |
|
26.393% |
30.444% |
| 8. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.017% |
0.632% |
10.869% |
21.767% |
|
66.715% |
|
29.899% |
36.816% |
Top promotions
| Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
| 1. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
74.758% |
| 2. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
20.709% |
| 3. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
3.353% |
| 4. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
0.910% |
| 5. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
0.227% |
| 6. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
0.021% |
| 7. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
0.016% |
| 8. |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
Ethereal 12.95 |
0.004% |
| 9. |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
Igel 3.0.5 |
0.002% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
95.467% |
| 2. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
3.369% |
| 3. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
0.912% |
| 4. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
0.248% |
| 5. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
0.004% |
Speculate rofChade 2.309 – Nemorino 6.08 1-0
eloAdvantage = 170.829 and eloDraw = 189.560 based on Season 20 League 1 games
| Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
7-8. |
|
7. |
8. |
| 1. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
|
79.198% |
20.532% |
|
99.730% |
|
0.270% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
|
20.757% |
75.209% |
|
95.966% |
|
3.656% |
0.377% |
0.001% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 3. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
|
0.044% |
3.418% |
|
3.462% |
|
79.244% |
16.830% |
0.444% |
0.020% |
|
|
|
|
|
| 4. |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
|
0.001% |
0.841% |
|
0.842% |
|
16.606% |
61.451% |
16.322% |
4.251% |
|
0.528% |
|
0.502% |
0.026% |
| 5. |
Pedone 20210528 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.114% |
13.065% |
34.292% |
25.720% |
|
26.809% |
|
17.052% |
9.757% |
| 6. |
rofChade 2.309 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.097% |
7.098% |
29.150% |
28.369% |
|
35.286% |
|
22.668% |
12.618% |
| 7. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.009% |
0.636% |
10.916% |
21.992% |
|
66.447% |
|
28.151% |
38.296% |
| 8. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.004% |
0.543% |
8.875% |
19.648% |
|
70.930% |
|
31.627% |
39.303% |
Top promotions
| Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
| 1. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
75.181% |
| 2. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
20.515% |
| 3. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
3.176% |
| 4. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
0.841% |
| 5. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
0.242% |
| 6. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
0.028% |
| 7. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
0.016% |
| 8. |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
Igel 3.0.5 |
0.001% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
95.696% |
| 2. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
3.192% |
| 3. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
0.842% |
| 4. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
0.270% |
Speculate rofChade 2.309 – Nemorino 6.08 1/2-1/2
eloAdvantage = 170.829 and eloDraw = 189.560 based on Season 20 League 1 games
| Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
7-8. |
|
7. |
8. |
| 1. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
|
78.846% |
20.867% |
|
99.713% |
|
0.287% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
|
21.119% |
74.708% |
|
95.827% |
|
3.797% |
0.376% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 3. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
|
0.034% |
3.515% |
|
3.549% |
|
79.360% |
16.506% |
0.568% |
0.017% |
|
|
|
|
|
| 4. |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
|
0.001% |
0.910% |
|
0.911% |
|
16.374% |
64.376% |
14.604% |
2.981% |
|
0.754% |
|
0.713% |
0.041% |
| 5. |
Pedone 20210528 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.095% |
13.673% |
34.808% |
25.533% |
|
25.891% |
|
16.384% |
9.507% |
| 6. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.067% |
2.704% |
29.382% |
32.163% |
|
35.684% |
|
23.820% |
11.864% |
| 7. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.012% |
0.631% |
10.878% |
22.061% |
|
66.418% |
|
28.688% |
37.730% |
| 8. |
rofChade 2.309 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.008% |
1.734% |
9.760% |
17.245% |
|
71.253% |
|
30.395% |
40.858% |
Top promotions
| Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
| 1. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
74.691% |
| 2. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
20.849% |
| 3. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
3.246% |
| 4. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
0.909% |
| 5. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
0.269% |
| 6. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
0.017% |
| 7. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
0.017% |
| 8. |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
Igel 3.0.5 |
0.001% |
| 9. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
0.001% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
95.540% |
| 2. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
3.263% |
| 3. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
0.910% |
| 4. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
0.286% |
| 5. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
0.001% |
Speculate rofChade 2.309 – Nemorino 6.08 0-1
eloAdvantage = 170.829 and eloDraw = 189.560 based on Season 20 League 1 games
| Pos |
Name |
|
1. |
2. |
|
1-2. |
|
3. |
4. |
5. |
6. |
|
7-8. |
|
7. |
8. |
| 1. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
|
78.753% |
20.962% |
|
99.715% |
|
0.285% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
|
21.203% |
74.547% |
|
95.750% |
|
3.840% |
0.410% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 3. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
|
0.039% |
3.620% |
|
3.659% |
|
78.891% |
16.082% |
1.321% |
0.046% |
|
0.001% |
|
0.001% |
|
| 4. |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
|
0.005% |
0.871% |
|
0.876% |
|
16.337% |
62.064% |
15.949% |
4.265% |
|
0.509% |
|
0.489% |
0.020% |
| 5. |
Nemorino 6.08 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.550% |
8.423% |
43.720% |
31.382% |
|
15.925% |
|
14.271% |
1.654% |
| 6. |
Pedone 20210528 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.091% |
12.258% |
28.615% |
34.785% |
|
24.251% |
|
16.884% |
7.367% |
| 7. |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.006% |
0.623% |
8.934% |
20.193% |
|
70.244% |
|
39.036% |
31.208% |
| 8. |
rofChade 2.309 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.140% |
1.461% |
9.329% |
|
89.070% |
|
29.319% |
59.751% |
Top promotions
| Pos |
1. |
2. |
|
| 1. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
74.523% |
| 2. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
20.942% |
| 3. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
3.359% |
| 4. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
0.871% |
| 5. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
0.261% |
| 6. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
0.022% |
| 7. |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
0.017% |
| 8. |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
Igel 3.0.5 |
0.003% |
| 9. |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
Ethereal 12.95 |
0.002% |
Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical
| 1. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
95.465% |
| 2. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
3.376% |
| 3. |
Igel 3.0.5 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
0.874% |
| 4. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
0.283% |
| 5. |
Ethereal 12.95 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
0.002% |
Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)
| Rank |
Player name |
Points |
EPoints |
StdDev |
ERank |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
| 1 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
15.5 |
17.76 |
0.87 |
1.21 |
80 |
18 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 2 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
14.5 |
16.68 |
0.86 |
1.90 |
19 |
72 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 3 |
RubiChess 2.2-dev/2.2-dev 128GiB/TCEC-S21 |
13.0 |
15.15 |
0.87 |
3.09 |
0 |
9 |
75 |
15 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
| 4 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
12.0 |
13.87 |
0.87 |
4.14 |
0 |
1 |
15 |
61 |
17 |
5 |
1 |
| 5 |
Pedone 20210528 |
10.5 |
12.55 |
0.87 |
5.85 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
30 |
27 |
19 |
| 6 |
Nemorino 6.06/6.08 |
10.0 |
12.29 |
0.96 |
6.24 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
24 |
26 |
24 |
| 7 |
rofChade 2.309 |
9.5 |
11.87 |
0.99 |
6.74 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
15 |
21 |
27 |
| 8 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
10.0 |
11.83 |
0.85 |
6.84 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
12 |
21 |
30 |
Expected start time based on estimate of 3.11h/game
Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.
| UTC |
No |
White |
Black |
| 2021-06-18 03:24 |
97 |
rofChade 2.309 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
| 2021-06-18 06:30 |
98 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
| 2021-06-18 09:37 |
99 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
Pedone 20210528 |
| 2021-06-18 12:43 |
100 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
| 2021-06-18 15:50 |
101 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
| 2021-06-18 18:56 |
102 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
| 2021-06-18 22:03 |
103 |
Pedone 20210528 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
| 2021-06-19 01:09 |
104 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
rofChade 2.309 |
| 2021-06-19 04:16 |
105 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
| 2021-06-19 07:22 |
106 |
rofChade 2.309 |
Pedone 20210528 |
| 2021-06-19 10:29 |
107 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
| 2021-06-19 13:35 |
108 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
Igel 3.0.5 |
| 2021-06-19 16:42 |
109 |
RubiChess TCEC-S21 |
SlowChess Blitz 2.54 avx |
| 2021-06-19 19:48 |
110 |
Igel 3.0.5 |
Nemorino 6.08 |
| 2021-06-19 22:55 |
111 |
Ethereal 12.95 |
rofChade 2.309 |
| 2021-06-20 02:01 |
112 |
Pedone 20210528 |
Xiphos 0.6.1 |