Jul 08 2021
Off

For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. Existing r-mobility points used, future r-mobility points not yet simulated (assigned randomly for drawn results).
eloAdvantage = 173.826 and eloDraw = 230.020 based on Season 20 DivP games

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 2021061923 75.647% 24.082% 99.729% 0.271%
2. LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 24.170% 68.931% 93.101% 6.894% 0.005%
3. KomodoDragon 2747.00 0.183% 6.986% 7.169% 92.216% 0.613% 0.002%
4. Stoofvlees II a18 0.001% 0.001% 0.619% 84.662% 14.163% 0.554% 0.001% 0.001%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_PS1.7 14.332% 75.428% 10.000% 0.240% 0.240%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.13 0.386% 10.161% 81.670% 7.783% 7.778% 0.005%
7. Igel 3.0.5 0.002% 0.246% 7.775% 91.977% 90.148% 1.829%
8. Ethereal 13.07_NNUE-15EE 0.001% 99.999% 1.833% 98.166%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 2021061923 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 68.822%
2. LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 Stockfish 2021061923 24.008%
3. Stockfish 2021061923 KomodoDragon 2747.00 6.824%
4. LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 KomodoDragon 2747.00 0.162%
5. KomodoDragon 2747.00 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 0.109%
6. KomodoDragon 2747.00 Stockfish 2021061923 0.074%
7. Stockfish 2021061923 Stoofvlees II a18 0.001%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 Stockfish 2021061923 92.830%
2. KomodoDragon 2747.00 Stockfish 2021061923 6.898%
3. KomodoDragon 2747.00 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 0.271%
4. Stockfish 2021061923 Stoofvlees II a18 0.001%

Speculate AllieStein v0.8-120f959_PS1.7 – Ethereal 13.07_NNUE-15EE 1-0

eloAdvantage = 173.826 and eloDraw = 230.020 based on Season 20 DivP games

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 2021061923 75.523% 24.204% 99.727% 0.273%
2. LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 24.298% 68.815% 93.113% 6.880% 0.007%
3. KomodoDragon 2747.00 0.179% 6.978% 7.157% 92.227% 0.614% 0.002%
4. Stoofvlees II a18 0.003% 0.003% 0.608% 81.004% 17.846% 0.538% 0.001% 0.001%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_PS1.7 0.012% 18.089% 75.177% 6.627% 0.095% 0.095%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.13 0.286% 6.827% 84.977% 7.910% 7.909% 0.001%
7. Igel 3.0.5 0.148% 7.858% 91.994% 90.961% 1.033%
8. Ethereal 13.07_NNUE-15EE 100.000% 1.034% 98.966%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 2021061923 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 68.710%
2. LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 Stockfish 2021061923 24.130%
3. Stockfish 2021061923 KomodoDragon 2747.00 6.810%
4. LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 KomodoDragon 2747.00 0.168%
5. KomodoDragon 2747.00 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 0.105%
6. KomodoDragon 2747.00 Stockfish 2021061923 0.074%
7. Stockfish 2021061923 Stoofvlees II a18 0.003%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 Stockfish 2021061923 92.840%
2. KomodoDragon 2747.00 Stockfish 2021061923 6.884%
3. KomodoDragon 2747.00 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 0.273%
4. Stockfish 2021061923 Stoofvlees II a18 0.003%

Speculate AllieStein v0.8-120f959_PS1.7 – Ethereal 13.07_NNUE-15EE 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 173.826 and eloDraw = 230.020 based on Season 20 DivP games

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 2021061923 74.872% 24.813% 99.685% 0.315%
2. LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 24.944% 68.170% 93.114% 6.885% 0.001%
3. KomodoDragon 2747.00 0.184% 7.016% 7.200% 92.204% 0.595% 0.001%
4. Stoofvlees II a18 0.001% 0.001% 0.594% 87.766% 11.164% 0.473% 0.002% 0.002%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_PS1.7 0.002% 11.184% 76.180% 12.283% 0.351% 0.351%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.13 0.451% 12.312% 79.235% 8.002% 8.001% 0.001%
7. Igel 3.0.5 0.003% 0.343% 8.008% 91.646% 89.454% 2.192%
8. Ethereal 13.07_NNUE-15EE 0.001% 99.999% 2.192% 97.807%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 2021061923 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 68.062%
2. LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 Stockfish 2021061923 24.737%
3. Stockfish 2021061923 KomodoDragon 2747.00 6.809%
4. LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 KomodoDragon 2747.00 0.207%
5. KomodoDragon 2747.00 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 0.108%
6. KomodoDragon 2747.00 Stockfish 2021061923 0.076%
7. Stockfish 2021061923 Stoofvlees II a18 0.001%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 Stockfish 2021061923 92.799%
2. KomodoDragon 2747.00 Stockfish 2021061923 6.885%
3. KomodoDragon 2747.00 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 0.315%
4. Stockfish 2021061923 Stoofvlees II a18 0.001%

Speculate AllieStein v0.8-120f959_PS1.7 – Ethereal 13.07_NNUE-15EE 0-1

eloAdvantage = 173.826 and eloDraw = 230.020 based on Season 20 DivP games

Pos Name 1. 2. 1-2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-8. 7. 8.
1. Stockfish 2021061923 74.722% 24.992% 99.714% 0.286%
2. LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 25.095% 68.018% 93.113% 6.884% 0.003%
3. KomodoDragon 2747.00 0.183% 6.989% 7.172% 92.218% 0.610%
4. Stoofvlees II a18 0.001% 0.001% 0.612% 92.465% 6.582% 0.339% 0.001% 0.001%
5. AllieStein v0.8-120f959_PS1.7 6.403% 72.672% 20.061% 0.864% 0.863% 0.001%
6. ScorpioNN 3.0.13 0.518% 20.087% 71.333% 8.062% 8.044% 0.018%
7. Igel 3.0.5 0.001% 0.659% 8.252% 91.088% 86.727% 4.361%
8. Ethereal 13.07_NNUE-15EE 0.015% 99.985% 4.365% 95.620%

Top promotions

Pos 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 2021061923 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 67.916%
2. LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 Stockfish 2021061923 24.911%
3. Stockfish 2021061923 KomodoDragon 2747.00 6.805%
4. LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 KomodoDragon 2747.00 0.184%
5. KomodoDragon 2747.00 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 0.102%
6. KomodoDragon 2747.00 Stockfish 2021061923 0.081%
7. Stockfish 2021061923 Stoofvlees II a18 0.001%

Top promotions, relative order normalized to alphabetical

1. LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 Stockfish 2021061923 92.827%
2. KomodoDragon 2747.00 Stockfish 2021061923 6.886%
3. KomodoDragon 2747.00 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 0.286%
4. Stockfish 2021061923 Stoofvlees II a18 0.001%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 Stockfish 2021061923 30.0 36.87 1.45 1.24 77 22 1 0 0 0 0
2 LCZero 0.27.0-pr1540ish-w_68653/0.28.0-rc1_69146 29.0 35.38 1.45 1.87 22 68 9 0 0 0 0
3 KomodoDragon 2747.00 26.5 32.58 1.48 2.92 1 10 87 3 0 0 0
4 Stoofvlees II a18 23.0 28.40 1.48 4.16 0 0 3 80 16 1 0
5 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_PS1.7 21.0 26.30 1.48 5.02 0 0 0 16 67 16 1
6 ScorpioNN 3.0.13 19.5 24.31 1.48 5.94 0 0 0 1 16 71 12
7 Igel 3.0.5 17.0 21.86 1.44 6.90 0 0 0 0 1 12 83
8 Ethereal 12.95/13.07_NNUE-D650/13.07_NNUE-15EE 14.0 18.31 1.43 7.95 0 0 0 0 0 0 4

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.21h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2021-07-08 08:31 182 Igel 3.0.5 ScorpioNN 3.0.13
2021-07-08 10:43 183 Stockfish 2021061923 Stoofvlees II a18
2021-07-08 12:55 184 KomodoDragon 2747.00 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146
2021-07-08 15:08 185 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_PS1.7
2021-07-08 17:20 186 Stoofvlees II a18 KomodoDragon 2747.00
2021-07-08 19:33 187 ScorpioNN 3.0.13 Stockfish 2021061923
2021-07-08 21:45 188 Ethereal 13.07_NNUE-15EE Igel 3.0.5
2021-07-08 23:58 189 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_PS1.7 Igel 3.0.5
2021-07-09 02:10 190 Stockfish 2021061923 Ethereal 13.07_NNUE-15EE
2021-07-09 04:22 191 KomodoDragon 2747.00 ScorpioNN 3.0.13
2021-07-09 06:35 192 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 Stoofvlees II a18
2021-07-09 08:47 193 Stoofvlees II a18 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_PS1.7
2021-07-09 11:00 194 ScorpioNN 3.0.13 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146
2021-07-09 13:12 195 Ethereal 13.07_NNUE-15EE KomodoDragon 2747.00
2021-07-09 15:25 196 Igel 3.0.5 Stockfish 2021061923
2021-07-09 17:37 197 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_PS1.7 Stockfish 2021061923
2021-07-09 19:50 198 Igel 3.0.5 KomodoDragon 2747.00
2021-07-09 22:02 199 Ethereal 13.07_NNUE-15EE LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146
2021-07-10 00:14 200 ScorpioNN 3.0.13 Stoofvlees II a18
2021-07-10 02:27 201 ScorpioNN 3.0.13 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_PS1.7
2021-07-10 04:39 202 Stoofvlees II a18 Ethereal 13.07_NNUE-15EE
2021-07-10 06:52 203 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 Igel 3.0.5
2021-07-10 09:04 204 KomodoDragon 2747.00 Stockfish 2021061923
2021-07-10 11:17 205 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_PS1.7 KomodoDragon 2747.00
2021-07-10 13:29 206 Stockfish 2021061923 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146
2021-07-10 15:41 207 Igel 3.0.5 Stoofvlees II a18
2021-07-10 17:54 208 Ethereal 13.07_NNUE-15EE ScorpioNN 3.0.13
2021-07-10 20:06 209 Ethereal 13.07_NNUE-15EE AllieStein v0.8-120f959_PS1.7
2021-07-10 22:19 210 ScorpioNN 3.0.13 Igel 3.0.5
2021-07-11 00:31 211 Stoofvlees II a18 Stockfish 2021061923
2021-07-11 02:44 212 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 KomodoDragon 2747.00
2021-07-11 04:56 213 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_PS1.7 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146
2021-07-11 07:08 214 KomodoDragon 2747.00 Stoofvlees II a18
2021-07-11 09:21 215 Stockfish 2021061923 ScorpioNN 3.0.13
2021-07-11 11:33 216 Igel 3.0.5 Ethereal 13.07_NNUE-15EE
2021-07-11 13:46 217 Igel 3.0.5 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_PS1.7
2021-07-11 15:58 218 Ethereal 13.07_NNUE-15EE Stockfish 2021061923
2021-07-11 18:11 219 ScorpioNN 3.0.13 KomodoDragon 2747.00
2021-07-11 20:23 220 Stoofvlees II a18 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146
2021-07-11 22:36 221 AllieStein v0.8-120f959_PS1.7 Stoofvlees II a18
2021-07-12 00:48 222 LCZero 0.28.0-rc1_69146 ScorpioNN 3.0.13
2021-07-12 03:00 223 KomodoDragon 2747.00 Ethereal 13.07_NNUE-15EE
2021-07-12 05:13 224 Stockfish 2021061923 Igel 3.0.5
Posted inBayesElo