For standings with all tiebreaks and ratings using all games in this season regardless of upgrades and also previous season(s) if same version see previous post

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then remainder again sorted by who has most >=2. Columns 1.-2. are how often it ended in simulation at that position. R-mobility not yet used in simulations except as biased random().
eloAdvantage = 59.940 and eloDraw = 372.378 based on Season 20 Superfinal games

Pos Name 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 14_202107131735 100.000%
2. LCZero 0.28-dev+_69626 100.000%

Speculate LCZero 0.28-dev+_69626 – Stockfish 14_202107131735 1-0

eloAdvantage = 59.940 and eloDraw = 372.378 based on Season 20 Superfinal games

Pos Name 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 14_202107131735 100.000%
2. LCZero 0.28-dev+_69626 100.000%

Speculate LCZero 0.28-dev+_69626 – Stockfish 14_202107131735 1/2-1/2

eloAdvantage = 59.940 and eloDraw = 372.378 based on Season 20 Superfinal games

Pos Name 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 14_202107131735 100.000%
2. LCZero 0.28-dev+_69626 100.000%

Speculate LCZero 0.28-dev+_69626 – Stockfish 14_202107131735 0-1

eloAdvantage = 59.940 and eloDraw = 372.378 based on Season 20 Superfinal games

Pos Name 1. 2.
1. Stockfish 14_202107131735 100.000%
2. LCZero 0.28-dev+_69626 100.000%

Output from BayesElo program (this does not take into account tiebreaks)

Rank Player name Points EPoints StdDev ERank 1
1 Stockfish 2021061923/14_202107131735 53.5 55.64 0.86 1.00 100
2 LCZero 0.27.0-pr1540ish-w_68653/0.28.0-rc1_69146/0.28-dev+_69626 42.5 44.36 0.86 2.00 0

Expected start time based on estimate of 4.19h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC No White Black
2021-08-06 15:10 98 Stockfish 14_202107131735 LCZero 0.28-dev+_69626
2021-08-06 19:22 99 LCZero 0.28-dev+_69626 Stockfish 14_202107131735
2021-08-06 23:33 100 Stockfish 14_202107131735 LCZero 0.28-dev+_69626